Free entertainment yesterday!

Yesterday, we went 1-1 (+0U) on our picks. It was a repeat of the day before, so two straight days in the grey. Not all that fun, but it’s much better than losing. We won easily on the under (2-1 final) between the Padres and Athletics but came short on Jake Irvin’s strikeout total. Irvin gave up four runs early, then carved through the Dodgers lineup, going over 4.5 strikeouts. It was a tough loss, but that’s baseball for you.

We physically can’t break even today because I only have one pick. It’s a smaller board, but one player prop shows a hefty value.

2025 Record: 15-5 (+9.27 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays @ 1:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Angels: Jose Soriano (3.65 ERA, 0.97 WHIP in 12.1 Innings)

Rays: Zack Littell (4.15 ERA, 0.92 WHIP in 13 Innings)

We backed the Angels on the runline against the White Sox in Soriano’s first outing of the year. That was one of our five losses, as the Angels only put up one run. Soriano dominated the White Sox, but we lost the play due to the Angels’ offense. Today, I want to single out Soriano because his hits line shows plenty of value at +120.

The Rays have played 11 games, and the starting pitcher has gone under 4.5 hits in five, one game under 50%. The tie-breaker was last night, as the Rays put up six hits and four runs against a talented pitcher in Kikuchi. However, they only mustered two hits against Kyle Hendriks the day before.

The Rays hit up rookies Kumar Rocker and Thomas Harrington. They also scattered nine hits against Antonio Senzatela, one of the worst pitchers in baseball. They also beat up Carmen Mlodzinski of the Pirates for seven hits. Credit to the Rays; they did perform against Jacob deGrom, but most of the overs came from inexperienced rookies or well below-average starters.

Jose Soriano is one of my favorite buy-low pitchers right now. He’s on a team not many people pay attention to, but he’s been on a fantastic run since the second half of last season.

Soriano has consistently been above average at limiting hits; over his first 87.1 IP, he only allowed 71 hits. In the second half, where he pitched to a 2.45 ERA, he allowed 20 hits in 26 innings. It’s mainly due to his ability to limit hard contact (62nd percentile) and keep that contact on the ground (89th percentile).

Soriano has only allowed seven hits over 12.1 innings so far, but he did go over 4.5 hits in his last start. Over his previous 20 starts, he’s been under 4.5 hits in nine, but he’s averaging 4.35 hits because it usually goes well, or he’s privy to allowing 6-7 hits in a game.

After the All-Star break, this was a line he was under 50% of the time, and this season, he’s got one over and one under. He faced the Rays twice last season. His first start resulted in six hits allowed, and the second he only allowed one hit.

When you look at the Rays’ and Soriano’s results in two different buckets, you’re looking at a 50/50 coin flip. A reason to be bullish on Soriano today is his ability to pitch on the road. Last season, he threw 69 road innings, pitching to a 2.74 ERA with a .197 opponent batting average. He pitched to a 4.50 ERA at home with a .263 batting average against. He allowed 0.71 hits per inning on the road last year and 0.95 at home.

This season, he threw a shutout on the road and got hit up at home. These are two different offenses, and it’s a smaller sample, but it continues from last season.

The Rays are fourth in batting average this season against righties, but as you can see from the guys they beat up, the competition hasn’t been difficult. They have a tough matchup here, mainly because it’s such a switch-up from Kyle Hendricks to Yusei Kikuchi. Hendricks beats you with slow stuff, Kikuchi is a lefty that relies on his four-seam fastball a lot, but Soriano is an entirely different look.

He’s attacking with a 97 MPH sinker while mixing a knuckle curve, slider, and splitter. They haven’t seen a pitcher like Soriano this season, and I think he turns in an excellent start today. I have him projected for 4.4 hits, making the true line -120. I would take his under 4.5 hits down to even money.

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