Five wins in a row!

Another easy one. We took Kodai Senga under 4.5 Hits Allowed, and he only allowed three. I assumed they would let him finish out the sixth inning, but as soon as the trouble started, they pulled him. Never broke a sweat.

I have two picks today: one total and one player prop. Both will be difficult to press the button, but the value is there.

2025 Record: 20-11 (+8.87 Units)

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Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies @ 1:35 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Marlins: Connor Gillispie (6.63 ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 19 Innings)

Phillies: Jesus Luzardo (2.31 ERA, 1.07 WHIP in 23.1 Innings)

Jesus Luzardo was born and raised in South Florida, and he was drafted out of high school by the Washington Nationals. He was then traded to the Oakland Athletics and subsequently traded to the Miami Marlins in 2021. He spent 3.5 years with his hometown team but was then traded to the division rival Phillies this offseason. After an incredible start, he gets to face his hometown team that traded him away. That’s a recipe for dominance. Connor Gillispie can hold it down for Miami, so we should see a lower-scoring game here.

The first two games in this series have gone over 8.5 runs. Yesterday’s game saw a total of 21 runs scored. The Marlins have the third-best “over” record in baseball at 12-7, so the oddsmakers kept this total higher than it should be.

Nobody in the Marlins lineup has ever faced Jesus Luzardo in a big league game. That’s generally a good sign; I like backing pitchers when the hitters haven’t seen it. The Marlins have gotten off to a solid start against left-handed pitching with a 110 wRC+, but I don’t expect it to last.

They are rocking with the second-highest batting average on balls in play with a league-average hard-hit rate. Miami has been lucky that the contact they have made has dropped in, but I think it’s unlikely they replicate that against a motivated Luzardo. The Marlins are also going to miss Griffin Conine (.389 AVG vs lefties) after he left yesterday’s game with a shoulder injury.

Luzardo is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. All of his underlying ERA predictors are impressive, especially his 1.99 FIP, the fifth-best mark among all pitchers, one spot ahead of Paul Skenes.

Luzardo is coming off his worst start yet, allowing three runs over 5.1 innings to the Giants. I expect a significant bounce-back from Luzardo and wouldn’t be surprised if he shuts them out completely.

On the other side, we have Connor Gillispie. The 27-year-old right-hander won’t have a 6.63 ERA for long, sitting with an xERA of 4.04 and a 4.15 SIERA. He’s not a bad arm by any stretch; his four-seam fastball has 20 inches of induced vertical break, holding opponents to a .063 average this season. His sweeper and changeup have performed well, but it’s the cutter that has gotten destroyed.

The Phillies have also never seen him, which I always like to see. Philadelphia’s offense, while scoring 18 runs in two games against right-handers, still hasn’t been all that great against them this year. Those numbers rose their wRC+ to 103 and a .720 OPS, both 15th in the league. They also have the sixth-lowest hard-hit rate against righties.

While yesterday was a close, high-scoring game, both bullpens threw most of their lesser arms. The high-leverage arms for the Phillies, Jose Alvarado and Orion Kerkering, are both ready to go. They also have Tanner Banks and Jose Ruiz available. They likely won’t need more than three guys, as I fully expect six dominant innings out of Luzardo.

The Marlins also have their high-leverage arms ready to go. Anthony Bender will be fine after throwing 16 pitches yesterday, his first appearance in over five days. Ronny Henriquez threw 45 pitches on Thursday and should be good for this one. Jesus Tinoco and Calvin Faucher are also available. It’s not a great bullpen, but enough fine arms to slow down the Phillies.

The weather yesterday was perfect for offense, and they showed out. Today’s weather is much different as the wind has completely shifted direction. Yesterday, we saw 10-15 MPH winds blowing out, but today, those same winds are blowing straight in.

I expect Luzardo and the Phillies’ bullpen to dominate, and I expect an average game offensively from the Phillies. I project this game for 7.6 runs, making the under 8.5 my best bet of the day. I would take this down to 8 (-105).

Player Prop #1

Easton Lucas made his first career start against the Nationals, only allowing one hit through five innings. Remember, we just took the Nationals against Mitch Keller, betting over 5.5 hits allowed, and it cashed. He then faced off against the Boston Red Sox, tossing 5.1 innings while only allowing three hits.

However, in his last start, everything came crashing down. He allowed eight runs in five innings, which included three home runs. The Braves saw him well, but I have a hard time believing the Mariners replicate that. Especially considering Lucas is likely only going five innings, and the Mariners are one of the easiest matchups in baseball.

The Mariners’ offense is terrible against left-handed pitching. This season, they rank eighth in OPS against right-handers, but 25th against left-handers. Seattle also has the fourth-highest strikeout rate against lefties and the fifth-worst batting average. The saving grace is that they do walk at an above-average clip against lefties, which is what we want for this category.

Lucas isn’t some electric arm, but a 4.36 SIERA and 4.50 xERA are likely where he’ll settle in this season. Knowing he’s likely not going to see past the fifth inning, a decent start can get him under this hits line.

While the Blue Jays and Mariners played a long extra-innings game yesterday, the Blue Jays’ bullpen is in a fine spot today. Neither Jeff Hoffman nor Yimi Garcia threw yesterday, the two best arms in the Blue Jays’ bullpen. Brendon Little and Nick Sandlin should be available as well after throwing less than 20 pitches yesterday. That doesn’t even include Mason Fluharty, who also didn’t throw yesterday. That’s five arms ready to go.

If he allows less than one hit per inning, which is both what he and the Mariners are averaging, we should only see four hits allowed in this one. I have him projected for 4.0 hits, making the true line -155.

It’s a significant edge, but I don’t have a lot of data to go by with only a few starts under his belt. That’s why I limited the risk to 0.75 units, and I would take this down to even money. My bet tracking app rounds it up to 0.8 Units, but this is only a 0.75 U risk play.

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