Which 2026 Draft Pick Will Make Their MLB Debut First?
This year's MLB Draft was absolutely packed with talent, but only one draftee can make his MLB debut first. The Blue Jays have just the guy.
Earlier this month, during the Major League Baseball amateur player draft, some 613 young men received the call of a lifetime. Many gathered with their friends and families, desperately awaiting good news, and hoping for the call that would launch their professional baseball careers.
For that group of talented athletes, many of whom have already signed their first contracts with their respective ballclubs, having made it this far is one of the earliest steps in the long journey. Plenty are destined to one day step on a major league ballfield, and hear their names called out over the PA system as they make their debut in front of thousands of fans.
With the highly variable degree to which prospects adjust to the pace of professional baseball, much of the uncertainty focuses on timing rather than talent. How long will a prospect need to make it through the minor leagues? How many years will they take to reach their potential?
And perhaps one of the most important questions: which player from their draft class will be the first to reach the major leagues?
This year, there was no shortage of talent selected in the draft. And so, plenty of arguments can be made in favor of several different players, all of whom will surely make a quick ascent.
Even so, there’s one first-round selection that stands out among the rest: Cole Carlon.
The Toronto Blue Jays‘ first-round pick, selected 39th overall, was one of the most advanced arms in the draft and could even make an impact as early as this season.
Here’s what makes Carlon special, and why he may find himself in a Blue Jays uniform by the end of 2026.
College Career
Standing at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, Carlon had just finished his junior year at Arizona State University before his selection in this year’s draft. Now 21 years old, the left-hander found himself in the midst of a rough start to his college career after his freshman year, but he’s since regrouped and has looked plenty dominant over the past two seasons for the Sun Devils.
During his breakout 2025 season, Carlon pitched exclusively out of the bullpen, throwing 54 innings across 29 appearances. His 3.33 ERA (2.82 across 51 IP during the regular season) was one of the top marks for relievers across college baseball, and led to All-Big 12 First Team recognition, as well as All-American honors.
The following year saw Carlon transition to ASU’s rotation, where he would make 16 starts and log 83.2 innings.
On the season, Carlon recorded a 3.87 ERA while striking out 133 hitters, fifth most among Division 1 pitchers. His 38.0% strikeout rate ranked seventh among qualified pitchers, and was supplemented by a solid 8.9% walk rate.
Carlon’s success landed him All-Big 12 First Team recognition for the second time in his career, and was particularly impressive for his first go in a college rotation–a result of several plus offerings in his tool bag.
Arsenal
The Blue Jays’ first-round pick presents one of the most advanced arsenals among any prospect in his draft class, and was deemed by Blue Jays amateur scouting director Marc Tramuta as “now stuff.”
Carlon’s repertoire consists of four pitches: a four-seamer, slider, curveball, and changeup. He relies primarily on the first two offerings, throwing them 36.6% and 54.5% of the time, respectively.
Carlon already possesses the ability to run his fastball into triple digits, having reached a maximum velocity of 100.7 MPH with the offering this past season. The pitch also plays above its velocity as a result of a devastating 17.2 inches of induced vertical break.
The fastball could become even more difficult to hit once Carlon steps into the Blue Jays development lab, as he has the profile to develop an elite tunnel between his four-seamer and changeup (used 3.6% of the time in 2026).
On his changeup, Carlon induces 10.5 inches of arm-side run, compared to 9.5 inches of arm-side run on his fastball. From a hitter’s perspective, the pitches appear to move in a very similar horizontal manner, before the changeup drops off the table while the fastball stays high. Add a 10 MPH discrepancy between the pitches, and it becomes an uber deceptive combo.
Even with that potential wipeout combination, Carlon’s slider remains his single most impressive pitch. He threw the breaker for a strike 66.9% of the time (731 sliders this year), while inducing swing-and-misses on 57.4% of swings. The slider also led to hitters chasing outside of the zone 39.0% of the time, while topping out at 91.5 MPH.
Tramuta considers Carlon’s fastball and slider to be “two October pitches”, given their impressive movement profiles and velocity potential. Several scouts already grade his slider as “plus to better”, and he’s yet to set foot in a minor league ballpark.
Those “October pitches” are what could ultimately land Carlon in the big leagues before any of his 2026 draft peers.
Blue Jays Team Needs
As things currently stand, the Blue Jays sit 10 games under .500 with a 49-59 record. However, their playoff hopes aren’t gone just yet, as they sit 5.5 games back of the final American League wild-card spot.
This year’s AL landscape has allowed several teams like the Jays to remain reasonably close to contention—most notably the Red Sox, who concluded an epic 15-game winning streak on July 22. The week leading up to the trade deadline will determine how Toronto’s squad navigates the rest of their season.
If they find themselves vying for a playoff spot come August and September, the Blue Jays will be in dire need of a southpaw in their bullpen, as all three of their lefty reliever options (Mason Fluharty, Adam Macko, Brendon Little) are sporting an ERA over 4.40 at this point.
With so much uncertainty about their contention status, it’s unlikely the Jays would deal prospect capital for a relief pitcher. That leaves Cole Carlon–and his two October pitches–as the perfect option to supplement their bullpen late in the year.
If they were to promote Carlon, who we recently just named as Toronto’s No. 6 prospect, the Blue Jays would be taking a book out of the Royals’ playbook, mirroring their promotion of 2014 first-round draft pick Brandon Finnegan down the stretch in that same year.
Now, I’m not saying the Blue Jays make the playoffs this year, but the league is wide open. With their need for a left-handed reliever and Carlon’s near MLB-ready arsenal, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see the first-round draft pick reach the majors in 2026.
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Written by
Mason Linken first began writing about baseball after founding FBC Reports, and contributing to SABR's book "Henry Aaron". At Just Baseball, Mason is responsible for covering…