Arizona Fall League Notes: Young Hitters Continue to Stand Out

I will probably preface every Arizona Fall League check-in with the fact that it’s an ideal environment for offense. As we approach the end of October, the league-wide slash line is .276/.379/.448 with a 23.4% strikeout rate. For reference, last year’s AFL OPS was .767 with a 26% strikeout rate.

Given the chaos of things offensively, it’s even more important to evaluate each player in an individual vacuum rather than comparing him to the league. With players in completely different developmental stages, a .757 OPS from an 18-year-old Leodalis De Vries is going to tell a different story from a near 21-year old Xavier Isaac’s .936 OPS, which has come with too much whiff.

San Diego’s Leodalis De Vries is Picking Up Where He Left Off

Before a strained right shoulder ended his 2024 season prematurely, Padres shortstop prospect Leodalis De Vries was really settling in at the Low-A level with Lake Elsinore. Over his final 40 games of the regular season, Just Baseball’s No. 10 prospect mashed to a .275/.400/.563 line with 11 home runs and only a 5.6% difference between his strikeout and walk rate.

With roughly two months between De Vries’ final regular season game and his first AFL contest, there was some understandable rust for the switch-hitter. Through his first three games for Peoria, De Vries was just 2-for-13 with 7 strikeouts. In his subsequent five games, he has hit .333/.500/.467 with a pair of doubles and stolen bases while walking (4 BBs) more than he has struck out (3 Ks).

It’s the comfort and control of his at-bats that particularly stands out, hardly ever expanding and rarely whiffing within the zone. After a regular season where his right-handed production outpaced that of his left side, De Vries has been piling up hits from the latter, spraying the ball with authority to all fields. De Vries will be 18 years old for the entirety of the 2025 season, but his relative polish will likely inspire A.J. Preller and Co. to push him aggressively next year.

Detroit’s Josue Briceño Continues His Power Display

The most frequent name on these AFL notes, Tigers prospect Josue Briceño’s breakout was delayed due to a knee issue that wiped out the majority of his Low-A season. I discussed what the injury may mean for an already iffy defensive outlook at catcher in the first AFL writeup, so I will focus more on the continued power display this time around.

It’s been as simple as hitting the ball in the air more consistently for Briceño. The 6-foot-4, 200 pound 20 year-old had posted above average exit velocities and contact rates at the Complex and Low-A, but in his 40 game Low-A sample this year, he put the ball on the ground at nearly a 40% clip. Even his hardest hit baseballs were on the ground, with the average launch angle on balls hit 95+ MPH at -0.4 degrees.

When comparing video, it was clear Briceño struggled to keep his weight back, drifting onto his front foot prematurely, which will result in a lot more rollovers. While he can still be a bit heavy with his front foot, there’s clearly much more control of his lower half and weight shift, allowing his path to be much more geared for lift.

After launching two home runs in 45 Low-A games including the postseason, Briceño has left the yard seven times through 54 AFL plate appearances with a ground ball rate around 40%. I wouldn’t be surprised if Briceño’s knee issue negatively impacted his ability to get into and control his base.

Between his above average plate discipline and track record of solid contact rates, Briceño has a chance to solidify himself as one of the more exciting bats in the Tigers system not named McGonigle or Clark if he can carry this momentum into High-A next season.

Milwaukee’s Juan Baez: A Contact Savant

Brewers infield prospect Juan Baez turned in a solid age-18 season at Low-A, producing a 106 wRC+ while striking out only 9% of the time. It was fun to see the way he maneuvers the barrel in person, getting to pitches in seemingly any location with the ability to spoil well-executed secondaries.

Despite a big leg kick and moving parts, he turns around velocity with ease and looks adjustable to all pitch types with a swing that lives in the zone for a long time. Baez is 14-for-36 (.389) and has only whiffed at five of the 56 swings he has taken at pitches in the zone in the desert. He profiles best at second base with the biggest question mark being how much power the smaller-framed 19-year-old can tap into.

San Francisco’s Bryce Eldridge is Picking Up Steam

In the last batch of notes, I mentioned that the Giants should consider taking their time with Eldridge in terms of a big league call-up as he enters his age-20 season in 2025. While there’s nothing that Eldridge could do in the AFL to alter that opinion, it has been nice to see him settling in after a slow start.

Over his last four games, Eldridge launched no-doubters to the pull side and to the opposite field, with five of his seven hits in that span being the other way. Eldridge continues to look a bit rushed at the plate, resulting in more swing and miss and chase than desired, but it’s a positive trend to see him getting into his power and finding more hits when pitches get deep on him.

Houston’s Alex Santos is Making Up For Lost Time

Astros RHP prospect Alex Santos has been one of the few bright spots on the mound in the AFL so far, allowing just two earned runs over his 8 2/3 innings of work with 14 strikeouts and four free passes.

Santos hadn’t thrown since May 7 due to an undisclosed injury, surrendering nine earned runs in the final regular season outing we saw from him for Double-A Corpus Cristi. The 22-year-old has picked up plenty of whiff with his cutter/slider combination, with the latter easily looking like a plus pitch.

Santos has good characteristics on his heater as well, which has averaged 95 MPH with above average carry and decent extension. With a curveball and two-seamer that he will mix in on occasion as well, Santos has a relatively intriguing five pitch mix and could be an arm to watch in the Astros system.

The Angels’ Samy Natera is Sustaining Uptick in Velocity

A former 17th round pick by the Angels in 2022, Natera missed the majority of the 2024 season with an undisclosed injury, but returned in August with his velocity up multiple ticks from the year prior. After averaging 91.5 MPH with his fastball in 2023, Natera was up to 94.5 MPH in his 15 innings of work to close out the regular season. In his seven scoreless AFL innings, Natera has averaged 95.2 MPH with his fastball while getting good run and ride.

This is a big development for a 6-foot-4 southpaw who likes to lean heavily on his fastball. Natera and Reds Triple-A arm Jose Acuna are the only two pitchers in the Fall League with at least seven innings pitched and no earned runs allowed. His last start was his most impressive, tossing three hitless innings with five strikeouts. Now sitting in the mid 90s, that fastball plays like a plus pitch. The slider flashes above average, but he will need to find a more consistent feel for it. He has also experimented with a few splitters.

All he has needed so far though is his drastically improved fastball, overpowering hitters with it despite his 72% usage. Natera will be 25 years old this offseason and is a likely candidate to be pushed up the minor league ranks quickly by the Angels.