Ben Rice’s Second-Half Struggles Have Taken Him Out of the MVP Race
Rice's first half landed him in MVP conversations, but his second half may have very well taken him out.
Before the 2026 season, all Ben Rice seemed to be was a promise. Promises of production, improvement, and otherworldly metrics painted a picture close enough to reality for New York Yankees fans to salivate over.
That’s not to say he wasn’t already productive. In 2025, Rice posted a .251/.344/.499 slash line, with an OPS of .836. That landed him among some of the game’s biggest breakout stars. Despite that, the exciting part was under the hood.
If you looked at Rice’s 2025 Baseball Savant page and didn’t know who it belonged to, you’d think you were witnessing an all-time season. All expected data hinted at positive regression, including his xSLG (.553) and xBA (.280). Additionally, countless other batted-ball metrics had him as an “unlucky” .836 OPS hitter.
Alongside the prospect of further success when he made contact, Rice excelled at not chasing or whiffing and paired that with his excellent quality-of-contact metrics. If you made a player in a lab to dominate modern stathead baseball, it would’ve been 2025 Ben Rice.
With that steady season behind him and many analysts gearing up for an even better one, Rice took off. In the first half of 2026, he looked like an MVP candidate.
Through the left-handed slugger’s first 91 games, he pulverized 29 home runs, added 68 RBI, and posted a .971 OPS. Rice couldn’t be stopped. Whatever opposing pitchers threw him seemed destined for the short porch – and he didn’t miss often.
Unfortunately, after participating in the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game, Rice hasn’t looked like the same player – and he just might be playing himself out of an MVP.
So, what’s changed?
Why Is Ben Rice Struggling so Profoundly?
In the second half, through 32 games (prior to first pitch on August 22), Rice has a .603 OPS, five home runs, and a .167 batting average. There’s no other way to slice it; he’s been bad.
One of the most alarming drop-offs in Rice’s game is his loss of bat speed. Last season, his average swing was 73.4 mph, placing him in the 69th percentile.
Fast forward to now, and he’s dropped down to 72.7. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but when it comes to bat speed, an inch goes a mile. His max EV from last season, at over 113 mph, has fallen to a much more mediocre 110 mph, which could relate to the lower swing speed.
Furthermore, Rice’s whiff and strikeout percentages have crumbled. He went from an alien archetype that could somehow burn you for extra bases and make consistent contact to more of a three-true-outcomes hitter; his walk rate has increased, and his Ks have skyrocketed.
From an approach perspective, Rice is swinging more out of the zone, attacking the first pitch more often, and swinging at strikes less than ever.
What made Rice so great last season wasn’t just the dry data against fastballs, or the dreamy homers to right. It was his poise at such a young age. The discipline that separated him from your daily-dose power hitter has been lost in real time, and he needs it back more than ever, given the Yankees’ current situation.
Yankees captain Aaron Judge landed on the injured list with a rib injury and is expected to be back sometime in September. Here’s what Rice has accomplished since Judge was shelved on June 5: a .208 batting average, 17 home runs, a .745 OPS, and a 108 wRC+. Not bad, but nothing close to his performance from the first two-plus months of the season.
It’s fair to ask: Is Rice simply getting no protection? If that’s what you were wondering, you may be right, as the Yankees rank 29th in team OPS since the All-Star break. They have lost more than a step or two without Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and with the struggles of multiple everyday players.
There’s not a ton Rice can do about the circumstances surrounding his spot in the batting order. Still, if he’s going to be a building block moving forward in New York, he can’t crumble when the Yanks need him most.
There are plenty of other tidbits to pull on Rice’s struggles, but what are the reasons to be optimistic for the future?
Why Should Yankees Fans Believe in Ben Rice?
During Judge’s absence and since the beginning of Rice’s downturn, the young slugger has had a .222 batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
The American League average is hovering right around .287 this season, suggesting that Rice, yet again, is being picked on by Lady Luck.
If his batted balls start finding holes again, his average should creep up, and the OPS, RBI, and on-base numbers will follow. It’s not concerning that his average has tailed off with how little normalcy he’s experienced after contact.
Additionally, Rice still has expected numbers among MLB’s best. His xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, and barrel percentage are all still in the 91st percentile or better.
The batted-ball data backs up his success; it seems like more of a blip than a warning sign. The new version of Rice that fans are disdainful towards isn’t a finished product.
Players go through slumps like this, to varying degrees, every season. No superstar escapes the volatility of modern hitting, and unfortunately for the Yankees, Rice’s dose hit him right when their other boppers went down.
The good news is, this isn’t forever. Rice has all the tools, data, and track record to bounce back down the stretch and get hot for a deep playoff run.
He’s still crushing fastballs, has great expected numbers against offspeed and breaking pitches, and is among MLB’s most productive hitters this year – and that’s after a long struggle bender.
When Rice returns to form, and the Yankees reintroduce their sidelined sluggers, a team will be reborn. It’s not hard to envision a scenario in which the Bronx Bombers get hot and healthy right before October baseball rolls around, and Rice would certainly need to be a major part of any offensive turnaround.
Unfortunately, even with a legitimate bounce-back, Rice may have already lost out on the AL MVP.
Astros’ perennial candidate Yordan Alvarez is eyeing down a triple crown and murdering any baseball that stands in his way. He’s smashed 36 home runs en route to a 1.052 OPS and a 195 OPS+.
Those are all-time numbers for Alvarez, and as it stands, Rice’s hiatus from his first-half form has cost him footing in a boat race.
This season, barring any further unprecedented failures, will be a major success for the 27-year-old Yankee. If you had told fans that a 12th-round pick would amount to what he’s already become, I’m sure the Bronx would smile in unison.
Still, the timing of Rice’s slump has cost the Yankees games and cost him a potential MVP Award.
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Written by
AJ Stone is a sportswriter and journalist currently attending the University of Missouri School of Journalism. His work has appeared on Redbird Rants, Heavy.com, Arcadia News,…