Will One of the Best Four Teams Win the World Series This Year?

On the latest episode of Who’s Better Baseball, hosts Ryan Finkelstein and Patrick Lyons brought up a great question: Who has a better chance to win the World Series in 2024, the fearsome foursome of the Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, and Dodgers, or the field?

As we creep ever closer to the halfway point of the season, those four teams have proven themselves to be the best the sport has to offer.

They rank one through four in MLB in run differential. They’re the only teams that have scored at least 100 more runs than they’ve allowed. They’re also the top four teams in runs scored and four of the top five in runs allowed and winning percentage.

The sneakily good Guardians are currently leading the Dodgers in win-loss record by two games. Still, Los Angeles is considered the World Series favorite by just about every reputable source, so you’ll forgive me for saying the Dodgers, and not the Guardians, are one of the four best teams in baseball.

As good as the Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, and Dodgers have been, there are still, technically, 26 other teams in contention for the World Series. If we’re being generous, 21 of those teams actually have a chance to make the playoffs.

(Apologies to White Sox, Marlins, Rockies, Athletics, and Angels fans, but you know where your teams stand.)

The point I’m trying to make is that no matter how good the top four teams have been, it seems unwise to pick a group of four over a group of 21. But perhaps we need to look at things a little closer…

Playoff Odds

The websites FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference all offer their own version of World Series odds in the form of percentages. The Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Orioles rank among the five teams according to all three sources.

The Braves sneak in just ahead of the Orioles according to FanGraphs, while the Guardians are in front of the Orioles according to the PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus. Finally, Baseball Reference has the Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, and Phillies on top, although the Brewers are mere decimal points off the pace.

Combined, the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Orioles have World Series odds of 53.5% according to FanGraphs, 56.3% according to PECOTA, and 58.4% according to Baseball Reference.

In other words, the odds from all three sources reach the same conclusion: You should take the dominant foursome over the field, but it’s pretty darn close.

Historical Precedent

Here’s another way to think about this question: How often does one of the four best teams in MLB actually end up winning the World Series?

Obviously, it depends on how you’re defining the “best teams,” but recent history tells us the answer is approximately half the time. Looking at the past 10 World Series winners, five were undoubtedly super teams: the 2022 Astros, 2020 Dodgers, 2018 Red Sox, 2017 Astros, and 2016 Cubs.

As for the 2023 Rangers, 2021 Braves, 2019 Nationals, 2015 Royals, and 2014 Giants? Not so much.

The 2015 Royals were the only one of those champions to finish among the top four MLB teams by record. The 2023 Rangers were the only ones to finish among the top four teams in run differential. You could make a case for those Royals and Rangers teams, but ultimately, neither looked as dominant as the top four teams in baseball look right now.

Thus, historical precedent points to a similar conclusion. The top four teams have the edge over the field, but it’s slight.

So what if we dig even deeper? What about historical precedent through this point in the season?

After all, the Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, and Dodgers still have work to do to prove they can maintain this level of performance over 162 games. Plenty of teams start out hot only to fall off the pace in the second half.

And yet, looking at historical precedent through mid-June only strengthens the argument that you should pick the four best teams over the field. Eight of the past 10 champions had one of the top three records in MLB through games on June 17 the year they won the World Series. Here’s a quick rundown:

• 2014 Giants (1st in MLB)
• 2015 Royals (2nd in MLB, 1st in AL)
• 2016 Cubs (1st in MLB)
• 2017 Astros (1st in MLB)
• 2018 Red Sox (2nd in MLB, 2nd in AL)
• 2020 Dodgers (1st in MLB at a comparable point in the season)
• 2022 Astros (3rd in MLB, 2nd in AL)
• 2023 Rangers (tied for 3rd in MLB, 2nd in AL)

Only the 2019 Nationals (21st in MLB) and 2021 Braves (20th in MLB) were not among the top four teams in winning percentage at this point in their respective World Series-winning seasons.

In other words, not once in the past decade has a team that looked “pretty good” in mid-June won the World Series; the champions have been either one of the top teams or an underdog that went on a remarkable second-half run.

(*Note: While the introduction of the third Wild Card spot in each league increased the chances that a team with a lower record could win the World Series, the first-round bye for the top two seeds effectively means that the best teams’ chances of winning the World Series remain largely unchanged under the new system.)

All this to say, the advanced data and the anecdotal evidence both lead to the same conclusion: You should pick the Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, and Dodgers over the field.

But wait… doesn’t it matter who the field is?

The Field

Let’s take a quick look at the next tier of World Series contenders. All of these teams have a shot to win it all – but hey, technically, so do the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The million-dollar question is whether these contenders, collectively, are good enough to give you serious doubts about the likelihood of the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, or Orioles winning the World Series.

Cleveland Guardians

I kind of glossed over Cleveland at the beginning of this piece, so it’s time to make amends. The Guardians were the favorites in the AL Central entering 2023, but a 76-86 finish and a slow offseason led most people to lose confidence in this team heading into 2024. That turned out to be a mistake.

Despite losing Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery in early April and losing Steven Kwan for nearly a month in early May, the Guardians have held onto first place in the AL Central almost all year. Their offense has been far better than expected, their starting rotation has held it together without Bieber, and their bullpen has put all other arm barns to shame.

It still seems hard to believe the Guardians will continue playing at a 103-win pace all season, but they’ve kept it up thus far. The Yankees and Orioles can’t both win their division, so if the Guardians keep winning, they’ll finish as the number two seed in the AL and earn a first-round bye to the ALDS.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves have fallen far and fast amid an uncharacteristic losing skid. With Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. on the injured list, this isn’t the same powerhouse team that entered the season as one of the favorites to win it all.

That being said, the Braves still have one of the best rosters in baseball on paper. If Matt Olson continues putting his early-season slump behind him and Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Sean Murphy start hitting like we know they can, this team could quickly force its way back into the World Series conversation.

Even without Strider, a rotation of Chris Sale, Max Fried, Reynaldo López, and Charlie Morton could be absolutely unstoppable in the playoffs.

Seattle Mariners

If the Guardians stumble, the Mariners could swoop in and claim the number two seed in the AL – and the coveted first-round bye that comes with it.

As the Houston Astros struggle to climb out of the hole they dug themselves into and the Texas Rangers flounder as they wait for reinforcements from the IL, the Mariners have become the clear favorites in the AL West.

Seattle hasn’t been quite as dominant as Cleveland all the season, but the Mariners are hot right now, and they always looked like the better team on paper. While the Guardians’ pitching staff is full of question marks, the Mariners’ rotation is all answers. Their starters just need the bats to show up and support them.

Julio Rodríguez is finally looking more like himself in June, and if he goes on a tear, he can almost singlehandedly carry this team’s offense – although it would certainly help if Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford could figure things out, too.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have pulled ahead in the NL Central, but their divisional advantage doesn’t mean much for their World Series odds; the Dodgers and Phillies are likely to claim the two first-round byes in the NL.

Still, the Brewers, like the Guardians, have played far better baseball than anyone expected this season. Their offense and their defense are both legitimately good, and the big question is if their starting rotation can hold things together long enough for the front office to bring in some much-needed reinforcements.

Houston Astros

At this point, it looks more likely than not that the Astros will miss the playoffs entirely. Yet, if any team can pull off a remarkable midseason turnaround, it’s Houston.

The Astros should have one of the best lineups in the American League, and their pitching staff should be far better than it’s been so far, even considering all the injuries.

If Houston manages to make it to October, they have the star power in their lineup, rotation, and bullpen to make a serious run at another title.

The Rest of the Field