Why Now Is the Time for the Blue Jays to Trade Bo Bichette

At 44-52, the 2024 season is just about as close to a lost cause as can be for the Toronto Blue Jays. On paper, the club looks like they should be winning. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette should be superstars that carry the offense, while Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman should be more than enough to hold down the starting rotation.

Instead, the vast majority of the team is struggling all at once. Trade rumors are circling like mad around the Blue Jays and their players, especially ones on expiring contracts. This includes Danny Jansen, Yimi Garcia, Kevin Kiermaier, Justin Turner, Trevor Richards and Kikuchi.

On the higher end of the scale, Guerrero and Bichette are both extremely attractive trade chips, but neither are locks to be moved. Unlike the previously mentioned group, they are both under contract through next season, which adds value.

Guerrero has publicly stated that he wants to stay in Toronto. This works nicely for the Blue Jays’ front office, as they have expressed a desire to try and make one last run at a playoff push before their starts depart in free agency.

Bichette, on the other hand, is on record as saying he “would not be surprised at all” to be moved by this year’s deadline. His choice of words was an interesting one, mostly because of how blunt his response was. Most players would offer an “I’m just here to help the team win, no comment on trade rumors” answer, but Bichette was pretty straightforward.

Assessing Bo Bichette’s Trade Value

Trying to nail down exactly where Bichette’s trade value is right now is a difficult task. He led the AL in hits in two of the past three years and has never had a full-season wRC+ below 122 (22% above league-average).

Since he debuted in 2019, his batting averages have been .311, .301, .298, .290 and .306 prior to this year. He’s been about as consistent as they come, which will surely hold value.

He also has been a work in progress on defense, but has gradually improved. Heading into the 2023 season, fans were practically begging the Blue Jays to move Bichette off of shortstop after he was worth -0.8 dWAR at the position the year before. He went out in 2023 and put up a career-high 1.3 dWAR at the position. He’s by no means an elite defensive player, but he’s put in the work to improve.

What complicates matters is his performance this year. Bichette has a .222 average through his first 79 games, posting a .595 OPS with just four home runs and 30 RBI. His wRC+ sits at 69, which is 56 points lower than it was last season. The former leader in hits has more than one base hit in just 17 games this year out of 79. The drop-off has been rather dramatic.

Why Now Is the Time to Trade Bo Bichette

Like Bichette was, let’s be blunt in our assessment. Simply put, the Blue Jays can either trade him while he’s at least close to peak value, or they can wait until it’s at zero.

We’ve already been over what Bichette brings to a team based off of his stats from years past. Any acquiring club would be looking at 2024 as an outlier rather than the new normal, which should help the Blue Jays in trade talks. He’s been virtually the exact same elite-level player for years now, there’s very little reason to believe that what we’re seeing this season is where he’ll be at moving forward.

To rival teams, Bichette may seem to be a minor tweak or two away from being “back”, which could entice trade partners who believe they’re the ones that possess the magic to fix him. He’s set to make $17.6 million next year, which could be seen as a steal if he’s able to return to his career norms on a new team.

It also helps that Bichette has (almost) always been a better second-half hitter than he is in the first. Just two years ago, he had a 106 wRC+ in the first half before posting a 164 wRC+ in the second half of 2022. He’s always been above-average in the second half, but there are recent examples of him taking his game to a whole new level down the stretch.

Performance aside, there are also next to no quality shortstops available on the trade front. Willy Adames at one point seemed moveable by Milwaukee, but they’re firmly in contention and there’s little chance he’s sent packing. Gio Urshela and Amed Rosario are also out there, but neither come close to the quality Bichette provides when he’s “on”.

Which Teams Could Land Him?

One of the biggest issues with moving Bichette is not the fact that he’s slumping at the plate. Instead, it’s the fact that there aren’t a whole lot of teams out there with A.) a need at shortstop and B.) the tools to acquire him.

Sure, he’s having a down year at the plate, but that doesn’t mean Bichette can be had for scraps. He’s still going to command a significant return of prospects and MLB-ready talent.

Braves

The Braves are 8.5 games behind the Phillies for the top spot in the NL East. They’ve also been trotting Orlando Arcia, who has a 57 wRC+ and .244 OBP through 90 games. Atlanta shortstops rank 28th in the league in fWAR and 29th in wRC+. Even if Bichette isn’t hitting, an upgrade is needed.

Dodgers

In the absence of Mookie Betts, the slick-fielding Miguel Rojas has held down shortstop admirably. He’s boasting a .756 OPS and 113 OPS+ through 64 games while playing his usual dazzling defense. However, bringing Bichette aboard for additional offensive thump would be beneficial to the Dodgers, as they can have Rojas go back to oft-used utilityman and shift Betts to second base over the scuffling Gavin Lux.

Guardians

The Braves and Dodgers make the most sense, but don’t count out the Guardians, who are flying high now that they’re leading the AL Central and have landed Travis Bazzana in the MLB Draft. Cleveland shortstops rank 26th in baseball in wRC+ and it’s obvious that Bichette would be a smoother fit than the Schneemann-Rocchio-Freeman revolving door at the position.

Closing Thoughts

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said in a June 2 interview with MLB Network Radio that “it just doesn’t make any sense for us” to move either Guerrero or Bichette. He also said that the Blue Jays were going to contend this year, so take that with a massive grain of salt. As the club continues to falter, the chances of a blockbuster (or two) coming together rise.

The Blue Jays have a 1.7% chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs current playoff odds. Atkins can strive for a 2025 bounce-back all he wants – if he still has a job by then – but there’s little evidence that one’s coming. Toronto has an extremely weak farm system that’s been decimated by injuries, underperformance and PED suspensions, so don’t count on any internal help.

The options are keeping Bichette around to play for a team headed for disappointment or flipping him while his value is as high as its going to be from now until his trip to free agency. The choice feels like an easy one.