Who Should Start the All-Star Game for the AL?

For the first time in what feels like a long time, multiple pitchers in both the American League and National League have a legitimate case to start the All-Star Game. Thus far, no clear favorite has separated himself from the field.

With some of the bigger names sidelined due to injury, it will likely be a breakout star or a rookie on the mound for both teams, which adds to the excitement of the conversation.

In the American League, five pitchers have a strong case to start the All-Star Game, and the decision will likely come down to what happens over the next couple of weeks. Tanner Houck, Tarik Skubal, Corbin Burnes, Seth Lugo, and Luis Gil have all been outstanding this year, so let’s take a look at their individual seasons to see the numbers behind their early success.

Potential All-Star Game Starters in the AL

Tanner Houck

I have written about Tanner Houck’s breakout several times this season, and he continues to be absolutely spectacular. He leads all of baseball in both FIP and Situational Wins Saved (WPA/LI), showing that he has been the best pitcher independent of the defense behind him, and he has been able to bear down when needed. 

Houck’s emergence as an ace has been thanks to improved command, with a walk rate in the top 10% of pitchers, and his ability to limit the home run, allowing just 0.19 HR/9. He is elite at keeping the ball on the ground, posting a 55.4% ground ball rate, which is good for the top 8% of baseball.

Twelve of his 15 starts have been quality starts, which is tied for the most in the American League, and in the three that weren’t, he still managed to go 5.2 innings, landing him third in the AL in innings pitched.

His slider has been one of the best pitches in baseball, putting his breaking ball run value in the 100th percentile, which, in combination with an offspeed run value in the 96th percentile, puts Houck’s pitching run value in the top 1% of the MLB (per Baseball Savant). All three of Houck’s main offerings have both vertical and horizontal movement above league average, making him nearly impossible to hit.

Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal has come into his own this season and helped lead a young Tigers team, as he enjoys the success that many scouts long predicted he would find. The lefty’s fastball has been elite, with a run value in the 100th percentile, helping to land his overall pitching run value in the top 3% of baseball. He ranks among the top five AL pitchers in K/BB, xFIP, SIERA, and bWAR. 

His expected ERA is in the top 10% of baseball, and his actual ERA of 2.50 is sixth in the American League, demonstrating that it is not just luck that has landed the southpaw in the conversation with the league’s best arms.

Skubal is also in the top 10% of baseball in hard-hit percentage, using his four pitches that he features between 15% and 33% of the time to keep hitters off balance.

Corbin Burnes

Corbin Burnes getting traded to the Orioles was one of the biggest moves of the offseason, providing a young and exceedingly talented team with a proven ace. As Baltimore has continued to rack up pitching injuries, the importance of Burnes at the top of the rotation cannot be overstated.

Of those contending to start the All-Star Game for the AL, the 2021 NL Cy Young winner certainly has the best track record and the most name recognition. 

Burnes is tied for the best ERA and the most quality starts in the AL. He is also tied for fourth in wins and ranks seventh in the AL in innings pitched. Both his fastball and offspeed run values are in the top 5% of baseball, and his overall pitching run value is in the 99th percentile.

Additionally, and possibly more importantly from an organizational perspective, Burnes’ role as a leader and a mentor for the young stars in Baltimore has added value that cannot be boiled down to a simple, single statistic. He adds invaluable experience and has helped other pitchers like Grayson Rodriguez continue to grow and develop. While this may not impact All-Star decision-making, it is too important to be left unsaid.

Seth Lugo

Seth Lugo has been absolutely spectacular for the Kansas City Royals, who have been baseball’s biggest surprise this season. While his signing went relatively unheralded, overshadowed by the Boras Four holding out, the Burnes trade, and the Yamamoto signing, Lugo has built upon an incredibly productive season last year in San Diego to become one of the best pitchers in baseball, making his signing one of, if not the best, of the offseason.

He is second among AL pitchers in bWAR, third in the league with a 2.42 ERA, and has been an absolute workhorse for Kansas City, sitting first in the American League in innings pitched.

Lugo also has the best Win Probability Added amongst starters in all of baseball, with both his pitching run value and breaking ball run value in the top 1% of baseball. The veteran has featured a ridiculous eight-pitch mix, not showing a single offering more than 24% of the time, making it almost impossible for hitters to scout him. 

Luis Gil

There is a world in which Luis Gil may not have even made the New York Yankees’ starting rotation, yet he has burst onto the scene to start the year. Up until a poor start on Thursday (1.1 IP, 7 ER), he led the American League with a dazzling 2.03 ERA and 4.39 hits per nine. Even now, his 2.77 ERA still ranks seventh among qualified AL starters.

Only twice has Gil allowed more than three earned runs in a start, and he went five or more innings in every start from April 15 until yesterday. Prior to Thursday, both his fastball and offspeed run values were in the top four percent of baseball, putting his pitching run value in the 100th percentile.

For a Yankees team that is hoping to win now, Gil’s spectacular showing to start 2024 cannot be overstated, as he helped to hold the rotation together throughout six-time All-Star Gerrit Cole’s absence.

Who Gets the All-Star Game Nod?

While all five of these starters have a strong case to start the All-Star Game, I think right now, I would have to give the nod to Tanner Houck. Of the pitchers on this list, he has provided the best combination of quality and quantity, sitting toward the top of the leaderboards in terms of actual results (ERA), expected statistics (FIP, xERA), underlying metrics, and the ability to eat innings and work deep into games.

That said, with a race this tight, a single bad start or stand-out moment for any of these arms in the next few weeks could make or break their case to represent their league as the starting pitcher on July 16 in Arlington.