Will the Blue Jays Trade Their Best Piece in Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

By far the biggest question the Toronto Blue Jays face at this year’s trade deadline is whether they’ll move on from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or not.

The Jays now have just a tick over 24 hours to make a decision that would alter the trajectory of their franchise. Front office officials have expressed a desire to contend for a postseason berth one more time with the Guerrero-Bo Bichette core, but so far, it’s not looking like that’s going to happen.

Yimi Garcia, Danny Jansen and Nate Pearson highlight the outbound Blue Jays so far, with none of them receiving big enough names in return to write home about. Guerrero, on the other hand, would absolutely bring in a haul. The question again is whether Toronto would ever even consider it.

It sounds like the answer is yes, they’ll consider it, but only if the offer presented to them knocks their socks off. It’s not impossible.

For a while now, I’ve been anti Blue Jays Trade Vladdy talk, but it’s hard to deny the fact that he easily has the highest trade value of any player on the Blue Jays right now. With the relatively underwhelming trade returns so far being all the organization has to work with, why not shake things up by moving a superstar?

On the season, Guerrero has been, well, Guerrero. He went through a strange and mildly concerning stretch of power-less ball earlier in the year (two home runs in the month of May), but his numbers have rebounded nicely. In 104 games, he has 19 home runs, 64 RBI, a .301 batting average and 145 OPS+.

Here’s a look at his Savant page to give you an idea of how strongly he’s bounced back.

There’s no team that would pass on bringing Guerrero into the fold, but some need him more than others. Even fewer actually have the means to acquire him. There’s no telling exactly how high the asking price has been from the Blue Jays, but he won’t be had for cheap.

Let’s take a look at some landing spots for Guerrero to determine who A.) is a contending team that needs him and B.) has the means to pull off a move.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Landing Spots

Houston Astros

Key Stats:

• 65 wRC+ from their first basemen is dead last in all of baseball

• .197 batting average from first baseman is last in all of baseball

No team in baseball has gotten less production out of their first basemen than the Astros. Entering gameplay on July 29, Houston’s OBP (.269) and SLG (.302) from their first basemen also rank dead last in the league. Thanks Jose Abreu.

The Astros enter Monday with a 55-50 record, tied for first in the AL West with the Rangers. The biggest roadblock for them is finding the prospect capital to afford Guerrero in a potential deal. It’s almost a 100% certainty that they would need to be willing to part with someone like Jacob Melton (Just Baseball’s No. 77 prospect) or Joey Loperfido if talks are to get anywhere.

Seattle Mariners

Key Stats:

• Right-handed hitters are 19th in wRC+ and 20th in home runs

• Mariners first basemen rank 22nd in wRC+ and 26th in batting average

MLB insider Jon Heyman hopped on a live stream for Bleacher Report recently and said that the Mariners have been “pretty aggressive” in trying to acquire Guerrero from the Blue Jays. In a similar situation to the Astros, Seattle first basemen have severely underperformed this year. This led them to move on from Ty France, who held down the position for years before being traded to the Reds.

Just spit-balling here, but a package centered around Harry Ford (JB No. 31) and Michael Arroyo could be a solid start to get the Blue Jays’ attention. There would certainly need to be more involved, but this duo is a starting point.

New York Yankees

Key Stats:

• First basemen are 28th in baseball in wRC+

• Only five hitters (min. 50 PA) have higher than 1.0 fWAR

At one point, Guerrero himself essentially said that he’d rather die than play for the Yankees. That, of course, angered a lot of fans. However, earlier this year he walked those comments back a bit, saying that he’d “be happy to help any team”. There you go, Yankees fans, he’s back in your good graces.

Anthony Rizzo has been on the shelf for a while now and when he comes back, it’s unclear what his role will be. He’s not the same player he once was. Ben Rice has been an adequate fill-in, but his numbers are beginning to decline as well. This leaves the door wide open for Guerrero to step in.

Inter-division trades be damned, it’d be tough to see the Blue Jays pulling the trigger on this, but the Yankees have the means (and an immediate need) to make a move. It would not be a popular one amongst fans north of the border, but it’s also not impossible.