Pitching Must Be Twins’ Priority at Trade Deadline

Trade deadline season is upon us! From now until July 30 at 6 pm ET, MLB contenders have the chance to set themselves apart. The Minnesota Twins find themselves a part of that group.

The Twins’ trade targets should be pitchers who can help them catch the Guardians. The deadline is likely going to determine just how far they go in the postseason, should they make it to October.

During this previous offseason, the Twins did not make any substantial moves money-wise. The Carlos Santana signing (one-year, $5.25MM) is proving to pay dividends. Other than that one move, however, the Twins made no serious additions. As a result, their trade deadline could not be more important.

The Twins find themselves in second place in the AL Central. They have a chance to catch the Cleveland Guardians, especially if they have a strong deadline.

Minnesota does not need a superstar. Rather, a couple of moderate moves could see the Twins turn into a serious contender.

Twins Trade Deadline Priority: Pitching

The Twins need to add pitching in they want to give the Guardians a real race and win into October. They currently have one of the best offenses in the league and will be getting Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and Jose Miranda back sooner than later.

The Twins pitching staff ranks 20th in ERA so far this season. That said, the staff is much better than its ERA suggests. A bounce back from Pablo López would go a long way in showing that.

The starting rotation is currently lacking a fifth arm with Chris Paddack on the IL. Adding a starting pitcher would ensure that the Twins continue their success through the regular season. This move would also provide some versatility come October.

It also would not hurt to add a bullpen arm. The Twins’ bullpen is a top-ten unit in all of baseball, but you can never have too many relievers in October.

To clarify, all of these trade proposals are individual moves that would be great for the Twins, not necessarily a step-by-step plan. With that said, here is a look at some trades that could fill the holes on Minnesota’s pitching staff.

Stats updated prior to games on July 24.

Targets: SP – Erick Fedde & RP – Michael Kopech (CWS)

A package deal for Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech could be really interesting for the Twins.

Let’s take a look at Fedde first. He is having a career resurgence in Chicago. After a year in the KBO, he has come back to MLB and has been lights out.

Adding a sweeper appears to have really elevated his game. He throws it 20% of the time with a .169 batting average against. That pitch has played a large role in his success this year. As a result, Fedde is going to draw a lot of interest. He would fit perfectly in the Twins rotation.

Last season, Fedde logged 180 innings in the KBO and is on pace for a similar mark this year. He should have no issue pitching late into the season. He would also have the opportunity to compete for a starting role in the playoffs with Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson.

Kopech has transitioned to the bullpen this year, and it has been less than graceful. A 4.85 ERA in the bullpen is ugly, but a 3.89 xERA and 30.6% strikeout rate are intriguing.

His real issue has been blowups. Out of his 42 appearances, 28 of them have resulted in zero earned runs. For reference, Cole Sands, who has a much lower 3.38 ERA, has posted zero earned runs in 26 of his 38 appearances. The difference being, Sands rarely allows more than one run. Long story short, Kopech is worth a shot.

Return Package: Gabriel Gonzalez – OF (MIN #9) & Brandon Winokur (MIN #13)

This is a lighter package than the Tyler Mahle trade from the 2022 deadline, due to Fedde’s lack of track record. It is modeled mostly after the Jack Flaherty trade to Baltimore last year.

Flaherty had less control than Fedde but cost Baltimore their No. 16 and 18 prospects (per MLB Pipeline) and an unranked pitching prospect.

Target: SP – Cal Quantrill (COL)

Every season, there is no telling what the Rockies are going to do at the deadline. One would think they would look to cash in on Cal Quantrill having a good year at Coors. Then again, they may choose to hold onto him.

Quantrill is about as steady as they come. Since 2020, he has a 3.66 ERA in 576 innings, and that is with a 5.24 ERA last season (an outlier).

If the Twins were to acquire Quantrill, it would likely be as a regular season move. He would help them win games now but probably doesn’t make the postseason rotation over Ober or Woods Richardson.

There is nothing wrong with a move like that. Quantrill could move to the bullpen in the postseason. The Twins should be focused on catching the Guardians and winning the division, and Quantrill helps them do that. He also has one more year of team control and could play a part next season as well.

One noteworthy detail regarding Quantrill is his home run rate. It currently sits at 13.6%, which is the highest of his career and nearly four points higher than his average over the previous three seasons.

You would think that Coors would be playing a role in that, but he has actually been better at Coors than on the road. Could be something, or it could be nothing.

Return Package: Tanner Schobel – INF (MIN #11) & Yunior Severino – 3B/1B (NR)

This deal feels fairly similar to the Michael Lorenzen deal last season. Lorenzen commanded Hao-Yu Lee who was the No. 5 prospect (per MLB Pipeline) in a weak Phillies system.

Lorenzen was also a one-year rental coming off an All-Star appearance, whereas Quantrill has an extra year of control. Schobel and Severino likely get the deal done.

Target: RP – Carlos Estevez (LAA)

Carlos Estévez would be a great piece and likely make the Twins a top-five bullpen in baseball. That said, if they do go and acquire Estévez or someone similar, hopefully, it is not the only move that they make.

Estévez has been excellent for the Angels this season. A 2.45 ERA and 19 saves in 33 innings have made him one of the most productive relievers in baseball. He would slot into the back of a bullpen with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Jorge Alcala.

This would be one of the most devastating bullpens in the entire league. If you want to win in October, you need a lights-out bullpen.

Return: Kala’i Rosario – OF

I am not sure that a one-for-one swap would be enough to land Estévez, but he is a rental just for the rest of this year. The lack of control makes him less valuable, however the demand for him could drive the price up.

Rosario did not crack Just Baseball’s Top 15 Twins Prospects list, but he does slot in at number 15 on MLB Pipeline. The Angels desperately need to bolster their farm, and Rosario helps do that.

Twins Trade Deadline: Final Notes

The Twins’ trade deadline is going to set the tone for the final stretch of the season. This is ownership’s chance to send a message to the fans and players that they believe in this team. That they want to win.

Ownership has come out and said that the trade deadline is going to come with certain financial constraints. Despite that, however, I would hope that the front office will remain aggressive and possibly pay a little more in prospects for certain players in order to get some or all of their salary covered.

With regards to the aforementioned trades, Fedde’s prorated salary for the rest of the season would be roughly $2.5 million and then another $7.5 million next season. Kopech’s would be $1 million, and then his final year of arbitration is next season.

Quantrill would cost roughly $2.2 million, and then his final year of arbitration is next year. Finally, Estevez would earn $2.3 million.

The point is, there are deals to be made that make the team better without breaking the bank.

With regards to the deals themselves, here are a couple of alternatives to consider. While Estévez would be a great bullpen piece, another option is A.J. Puk of the Marlins. He is having an up-and-down season but posts excellent numbers against lefties. He can slot into the bullpen as strictly a lefty specialist.

Another alternative would be Andrew Heaney from the Texas Rangers. Heaney has been very solid and is a free agent at the end of this year.

The Twins rotation lacks a left-handed arm, and that is a hole Heaney would fill perfectly. He also would not be very expensive in terms of prospect capital due to his impending free agency.

With all of that, happy trade deadline! May the next week bring you much joy and hope for the future!

Two BONUS Trades!

I lied, that was not the end of the article. Here are two really quick bonus trades because no one can get enough mock trades in one sitting. I am including these very quickly here at the end because there is an incredibly slim chance either actually happens. Still, they ought to be mentioned.

Nathan Eovaldi to Minnesota for Gabriel Gonzalez – OF (MIN #9) & Jaylen Nowlin – RHP

Eovaldi would be a perfect addition for the Minnesota Twins. The reason this trade likely doesn’t happen is the Twins’ fear of potential financial commitment.

Eovaldi will be owed about $5.8 million for the rest of this season. However, the real worry for the Twins will be his potential vesting option. If Eovaldi throws 57 more innings this year, he will have a player option for next season worth $20 million.

If the Twins level up the package a bit and get the Rangers to commit to covering some of the salary, this move could be a go.

Danny Jansen to Minnesota for Connor Prielipp – LHP & Rayne Doncon – INF

Toronto probably doesn’t want to sell, but they have to realize they are not competing this season and Jansen is a free agent at the end of the year. I’m not entirely sure what a deal for Jansen would cost; this feels like an underpay, but it is hard to determine what the Jays would ask for.

The Twins have an incredible offense, but the one big hole is catcher Christian Vázquez. He currently has a 43 wRC+ and is hitting .198 in 195 plate appearances.

Even with Jansen having a down year, his 95 wRC+ would be a massive upgrade. Adding Jansen could turn this offense into a real juggernaut.

The reason that this probably doesn’t happen is the Twins likely won’t move off Vazquez due to financial reasons and his defense. There also is a real chance that the Blue Jays just do not move Jansen.

Despite the slim chances, this would be an incredible deal for the Twins if they can make it happen. An alternative target would be Elias Díaz of the Rockies for similar reasons.

Okay, that is it! No more mock trades, enjoy the Twins’ trade deadline!