The Top 10 Starting Pitchers In 2024

Back in March, the Just Baseball editorial staff hopped on a call and, after much debate, we settled on a list of the top 20 starting pitchers in MLB for the 2024 season.

It’s funny how much can change over (almost) 162 games.

With the regular season drawing to a close, I re-ranked the top 10 starting pitchers of the year. Only two of the names on the list you’re about to read were included among our preseason top 10. Only four were even on our preseason top 20.

From Paul Skenes to Chris Sale, the past six months of baseball have been full of wonderful surprises. They’ve also had their fair share of disappointments, including serious injuries to top-flight starters like Spencer Strider and Kodai Senga.

All those highs and lows have come together to shape this new ranking of the top 10 starting pitchers of the 2024 MLB season.

Remember, these are the top 10 starters of 2024. This isn’t an exercise in predicting future performance, but a reflection of what we saw on the field this past season.

Stats up to date through games on September 23.

10. Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles (Preseason: 5)

2024 Stats: 15-8, 189.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 8.18 K/9, 2.23 BB/9, 3.6 fWAR

With free agency on the horizon, Corbin Burnes is wrapping up his fourth consecutive All-Star campaign. The Orioles ace ranks among the top five AL pitchers in innings and ERA, which is exactly what Baltimore (desperately) needed from him.

The version of Burnes we’ve seen in 2023 and ’24 hasn’t looked quite as dominant as the version we saw in 2021 and ’22, but he remains one of the better pitchers in the game – especially when it comes to limiting hard contact.

Burnes has looked especially dominant over his last two starts, tossing 14 scoreless innings against the surging Tigers. That’s good news for the Orioles, who otherwise have not looked their best with October fast approaching.

9. Framber Valdez, Houston Astros (Preseason: 13)

2024 Stats: 14-7, 170.2 IP, 2.85 ERA, 3.18 FIP, 8.70 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 3.6 fWAR

After a slow start to the 2024 campaign, Framber Valdez is back on the track. The Astros’ ace has a 1.74 ERA over 11 starts in the second half of the season, bringing his full-season ERA down to 2.85. That’s the second-best mark in the American League.

While his .272 BABIP might seem unsustainable, Valdez remains the king of weakly hit groundballs, with an MLB-leading 60.5% groundball rate. He also boasts a minuscule 0.63 HR/9. This isn’t a pitcher getting lucky, this is a master of his craft at work.

Thanks in large part to Valdez, the Astros once again look like a force to be reckoned with in October.

8. Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies (Preseason: NR)

2024 Stats: 11-9, 177.0 IP, 3.25 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 7.58 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 4.7 fWAR

Perhaps the most surprising pitcher of the 2024 season has been Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sánchez.

Sánchez began the 2023 campaign as an afterthought. He was a depth starter, nothing more. Yet, he proved himself worthy of a full-time job in the rotation with a strong showing in the second half.

In 2024, Sánchez is showing that his 2023 success wasn’t a flash in the pan.

It was just the beginning.

The 27-year-old has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the National League this season. He ranks ninth in the Senior Circuit in innings pitched, fifth in ERA, and third in FanGraphs WAR. His first career All-Star selection this summer was more than deserved.

7. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (Preseason: NR)

2024 Stats: 11-3, 131.0 IP, 1.99 ERA, 2.48 FIP, 11.47 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 4.2 fWAR

If Paul Skenes had made more than 22 starts this season, he would surely rank higher on this list.

Since his debut in mid-May, the 2023 first overall pick has been the best pitcher in baseball. His 1.99 ERA leads qualified pitchers in that time, as does his 32.9% strikeout rate, 2.57 xFIP, and 2.75 SIERA.

That said, we can’t give Skenes credit for innings he didn’t pitch. As impressive as he has been, he won’t win the Cy Young, and he might not even win Rookie of the Year. Nevertheless, he will surely get votes for both, and it’s safe to say the 22-year-old has plenty of awards and honors in his future.

6. Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners (Preseason: NR)

2024 Stats: 8-11, 197.0 IP, 3.24 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 9.46 K/9, 1.64 BB/9, 4.1 fWAR

The Mariners have one of the best rotations in baseball, and no one has been a more important part of that group than Logan Gilbert. The 27-year-old righty ranks third in MLB in innings pitched and 13th with a 3.24 ERA.

Gilbert also ranks among the top 10 qualified pitchers in every ERA estimator – most impressive is his 3.13 xERA, which ranks fourth in baseball.

Using his 6-foot-6 frame to get 100th-percentile extension on a fastball that already averages 96.5 mph, Gilbert is an imposing presence on the mound. Yet, funnily enough, his number one asset is control. He ranks sixth among qualified pitchers with a 4.7% walk rate.

5. Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals (Preseason: NR)

2024 Stats: 11-9, 180.1 IP, 3.24 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 10.83 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 4.7 fWAR

Bobby Witt Jr. is stealing most of the headlines in Kansas City, but the Royals’ starting rotation has been equally important to their success.

Cole Ragans has spent the 2024 campaign proving his post-trade success last season was no fluke. The 26-year-old southpaw has terrific swing-and-miss stuff (especially on his changeup), and he has done a good job limiting hard contact against his fastball.

Ragans is the kind of pitcher who doesn’t stand out in any one area, but he doesn’t have any major weaknesses, either. He should have a bright future ahead of him atop the Royals’ rotation.

4. Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals (Preseason: NR)

2024 Stats: 16-9, 204.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 7.83 K/9, 2.07 BB/9, 4.6 fWAR

Two years ago, Seth Lugo bet on himself when he signed a free agent deal with the Padres. He had pitched exclusively out of the Mets’ bullpen for the past two seasons, but as he entered his age-33 season, he wanted to return to the rotation.

The results were excellent, to say the least. Lugo made 26 starts with a 3.57 ERA and 2.9 fWAR. He parlayed that performance into a three-year, $45 million deal with the Royals, and that deal already looks way too team-friendly.

Building upon his success from 2023, Lugo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball all year long. His 3.03 ERA ranks ninth among qualified starters, while his 204.2 innings pitched lead the sport.

Lugo’s underlying stuff isn’t all quite as impressive as his ERA, but what matters most is his durability. Who could have predicted a converted reliever in his mid-thirties would turn into the most reliable workhorse in the league?

3. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (Preseason: 2)

2024 Stats: 16-7, 193.2 IP, 2.56 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 9.90 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, 5.3 fWAR

I’m starting to sound like a broken record whenever I write about Zack Wheeler. For the past five years, he has been the best pitcher in baseball. In fact, I’d argue he’s been the best pitcher in baseball for the past seven years, even if he was more of a number two than a true ace during his 2018 and ’19 seasons with the Mets.

Despite that, Wheeler has never quite been the best pitcher in any individual season, and thus, he has no Cy Young Awards to show for his efforts.

Still, whether he ever wins a trophy for his pitching, there’s no arguing with the numbers Wheeler puts up. His 2.56 ERA this season, the best of his career, ranks second in the NL and third in baseball. He also ranks fifth in MLB in innings pitched and among the top 10 qualified pitchers in FIP, xERA, and SIERA.

Wheeler’s fastball velocity has been dropping consistently since 2021, but his four-seam and sinker remain a lethal pair. According to Baseball Savant, no pitcher in baseball has generated more value with his fastballs.

2. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (Preseason: 18)

2024 Stats: 17-4, 185.0 IP, 2.48 ERA, 2.53 FIP, 10.75 K/9, 1.65 BB/9, 5.6 fWAR

Before this season, Tarik Skubal had never even qualified for the ERA title. Now, he’s less than a week away from winning the first AL pitching Triple Crown in a full-season since fellow Tiger Justin Verlander in 2011.

Picking up right where he left off after a jaw-dropping second half in 2023, Skubal is averaging more than six innings per start with a 2.48 ERA. He ranks among the top 10 qualified pitchers in strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate.

Skubal hasn’t been quite as impressive as our No. 1 ranked pitcher this season, but he is more likely to win the Cy Young unanimously. There are two strong contenders for the Cy Young in the National League, but there’s no question that Skubal deserves to win the AL Cy Young.

1. Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves (Preseason: NR)

2024 Stats: 18-3, 177.2 IP, 2.38 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 11.40 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 6.4 fWAR

Chris Sale leads MLB in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. If he keeps this up for six more days, he’ll become the first NL Triple Crown winner since Clayton Kershaw in 2011 and the first pitcher to lead MLB in all three Triple Crown categories in a full season since Johan Santana in 2006.

Sale also leads the majors in FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, as well as the versions of WAR at both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. He has been equal parts durable and dominant, averaging more than six innings per start and striking out nearly one-third of batters he has faced.

Zack Wheeler is having a Cy Young-caliber season of his own, but barring an utter meltdown during his final start of the season, Sale is about to win the first Cy Young Award of his illustrious career.