Three Royals Players Who Will Be Key to Postseason Hopes

The Kansas City Royals‘ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread with 22 games remaining in the regular season.

With a 73-69 record, the Royals are one game behind the Seattle Mariners for the final American League Wild Card spot. Furthermore, their playoff odds are currently 18.2% as of September 7, according to FanGraphs.

Every series for the Royals going forward is a big one. That includes this weekend’s three-game set against the Twins. It won’t be easy, however, but the Royals were able to beat Pablo Lopez on Friday (2-1 W) and then Joe Ryan on Saturday (11-2 W).

For the Royals to make that push toward the postseason, they will need some strong finishes from key players down the stretch. Let’s take a look at three Royals players who will be crucial to their slim postseason chances.

Bobby Witt, Jr.

As of now, Witt seems to be a long shot for the AL MVP award. According to BetMGM, his odds to win the AL MVP are +15000, thus making him a significant underdog to favorites like Aaron Judge (-425) and Cal Raleigh (+260).

However, there is no more important person to the Royals’ postseason hopes than Witt, especially when it comes to offense.

Since the All-Star Break, Witt is slashing .293/.368/.500 with an .868 OPS in 185 plate appearances. He also has seven home runs and 23 RBI with 17 walks to 33 strikeouts, a 0.52 ratio. The latter is better than the 0.38 BB/K ratio he posted in the first half, thus showing Witt is demonstrating a more sustainable plate approach recently.

The primary concern with Witt is the decline in power stats. His ISO is .209 this season, 47 points lower than his mark a season ago. He is also barreling the ball 1.8% less than a year ago as well. While 21 home runs is nice, it seems like Witt won’t reach the 30 mark unless he goes on a tremendous tear.

That said, with his power and talent, Witt can go on a tear and reach that 30-HR mark over the next 20 games. He showed that ability on Thursday night with a go-ahead home run in the eighth that ended up winning the Royals the game.

For Witt to tap into his power more this month, he will need to do a better job of launching the ball. His Sweet-Spot% has declined recently and has hovered around average, which can be seen in the rolling chart below.

The Royals need Witt to get back to the Sweet-Spot percentage he was sporting from the 150th batted-ball to 300th-batted-ball mark.

If he does, not only will he hit 30 or more home runs, but the Royals will have a good chance to steal that last Wild Card spot from the Mariners.

Salvador Perez

August was a brutal month for the Royals’ veteran catcher.

In 110 plate appearances, Perez slashed .186/.239/.382 with a .621 OPS. His OPS was his lowest mark since May, when he posted a .551 mark in 105 plate appearances.

One has to wonder if the trade of Freddy Fermin to San Diego had an impact on Perez’s performance.

While the trade netted the Royals long-term pitching pieces in Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek, who have been stellar in their Kansas City debuts, it has forced him to play more behind the plate. Only five times in August did Perez NOT play catcher, according to FanGraphs game logs.

At 35 years old, the extra time at catcher may be having an impact on his ability and strength at the plate.

A silver lining with Perez’s recent struggles is that he is still hitting the ball hard, well above the league average, as illustrated in his rolling hard-hit rate chart, via Savant.

Thus, the issue may be less of a physical and more of a “pitch selection” problem, which is something that has plagued Perez throughout his career. His 42.8% chase rate, which ranks in the 1st percentile, confirms those struggles.

That said, Perez made some positive ground toward turning things around in September, as demonstrated by his game-tying home run on Thursday against the Angels.

Perez posting numbers in September similar to what he did in June (.764 OPS) and July (1.098 OPS) could help the Royals significantly in the win column, and thus, the Wild Card standings.

Lucas Erceg

The overall stat line isn’t poor for Erceg. After all, he is sporting a 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 57.1 IP as the Royals’ fireman this season. However, he has been less dominant this year in Kansas City.

A big reason for that is the decline in strikeouts.

After posting a 27.1% K rate in 55 outings with the Athletics in 2023 and a 28.5% K rate in 61 outings between the Athletics and Royals in 2024, he’s sporting a 19.2% K rate in 58 outings this season. Thus, even though his ERA is better than his marks in 2023 (4.75) and 2024 (3.36), his 3.77 xERA this year is actually worse than his 2023 (3.69) and 2024 (3.24) marks.

Erceg has also been a lot shakier after the All-Star Break.

After posting a 2.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 37.2 IP in the first half, he has posted a 3.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 19.2 IP in the second half. A significant factor has been the decline in the K/BB ratio. Before the All-Star Break, it was 3.10. After? It is 1.75.

When looking at his pitch trends via Savant, it appears that he’s seen a decline in whiff rate on many of his pitches, especially his changeup, four-seamer, and sinker.

From 2024 to 2025, his changeup whiff rate has declined 11.1%, his sinker whiff rate has declined 12.2%, his four-seamer whiff rate has dropped 5.6%, and his slider whiff rate has declined 1.2%. Thus, it’s not a surprise that Erceg’s strikeout rate has declined 9.3% this season.

Erceg was more fastball-heavy with his arsenal on Thursday in his one-inning, 11-pitch, and two-strikeout performance. Here’s a look at the pitches he threw and where they were located, via Savant.

Now, here’s a look at the results of those pitches, via his pitch description chart.

The aggressive approach, especially with four-seamers up in the zone, produced a lot of called and swinging strikes. That was the kind of performance that Royals fans were used to seeing in 2024 and haven’t seen much this season.

Hopefully, this version of Erceg can take hold in September and strengthen a bullpen that ranks fourth in ERA and eighth in WHIP this season, but 28th in K/9.