Did the Rays Make the Right Call Optioning Chandler Simpson?

In recent years, Major League Baseball has seen an influx of fast players, with many possessing the ability to steal numerous bases.

As this new age of speed has come, we’ve also seen a large spike in stolen bases as a result. It also helped that MLB implemented new rules to make it easier to steal bases, including larger bases and a limited number of pickoff attempts.

Since these new changes have been implemented, one particular player, Chandler Simpson, has created a whole new meaning behind being a stolen-base threat.

During the 2024 season, fans began to take notice of his speed, as he stole a mind-boggling 104 bases in just 110 games.

Unlike many speed-first players, though, Simpson was different. He possesses a very solid hit tool, allowing him to reach base very often. During the 2024 season where he stole 104 bases, Simpson slashed .355/.410/.397, leading many to refer to him as the next Billy Hamilton, just with a better hit tool

After his first stint in Triple-A earlier this season, the Tampa Bay Rays decided to give Simpson a shot in the big leagues. He was promoted on April 18, and following his debut, he took the baseball world by storm with his speed.

However, after just 35 games in MLB, the Rays optioned Simpson back to Triple-A, leaving many fans puzzled. It didn’t take long for fans of the sport to begin questioning the Rays’ decision.

Are such critics correct to raise questions? Let’s examine the situation and attempt to see if the Rays were justified in their decision.

Simpson’s Performance in MLB

Despite showcasing eye-popping speed on the basepaths, Simpson’s offensive production did not follow suit. He was a negative defender in center by Outs Above Average (OAA), and he’s limited due to his contact-oriented approach, which can be seen when looking deeper into his numbers.

During his 35-game stint in Major League Baseball, Simpson slashed just .285/.315/.317. On the surface, that’s not exactly bad. People familiar with batting average will recognize that a mark of .285 is pretty solid; However, the rest of his game lacked heavily.

Simpson also repeatedly beat out ground balls that would easily lead to outs for nearly any other big leaguer, allowing his batting average to provide a false idea of his true offensive output. This is also supported by his .318 BABIP, which is well above the league average.

Simpson’s on-base percentage of .315 sat close to the league-average mark, meaning he wasn’t reaching base at a high rate despite his higher batting average. In addition to this, his wOBA of .283 sat far below the league-average mark of .320, further supporting this claim.

This level of offensive production led to Simpson recording an fWAR of 0.0 despite playing a sizable number of games. Additionally, his wRC+ of 84 indicated that his offensive output was 16 percent worse than league average.

Once again, due to Simpson’s play style, his game is very limited. He doesn’t possess the ability to hit the ball very hard, giving him little-to-no power potential. His extra-base hit capability lies almost exclusively in his speed, which allows him to stretch base hits into doubles.

This idea can be supported even more when looking at his batted ball metrics from his time in MLB. His average exit velocity of 83.4 mph registered as one of the worst marks in the sport. He also recorded no barrels during this stint to go with an abysmal hard-hit rate of 15.3%.

Simpson produced a ground-ball rate of 56.8%, which is a very high number (the league average for a hitter is 44.4%). When pairing this with his uninspiring batted-ball profile, It’s clear that Simpson’s speed may have been doing some heavy lifting in order to boost his offensive numbers.

This type of batted-ball profile is far from ideal and would indicate some serious regression, even further than we already saw.

The only way this would translate into solid production would be if all of Simpson’s ground balls were perfectly placed, allowing him to beat them out. However, in the sport of baseball, that is unachievable.

For that reason, the Rays chose to send Simpson back to the minor leagues. Not only was he not producing offensively, but his quality of contact suggested that things won’t improve over time.

While he does have an intriguing hit tool, we didn’t see it showcased to its full extent during his MLB stint.

Simpson’s Replacements

Since optioning Simpson, the Rays have been trying to identify a replacement in center field. While this is going to be a difficult choice, it’ll likely come down to left-hander Kameron Misner.

At the beginning of this season, Misner was one of the hottest hitters in baseball, appearing to be the next success story for the Rays. However, he cooled off significantly and has struggled at the plate since this hot start.

Although he’s struggled at the plate, he’s still been more productive than Simpson overall. He’s hit more homers, all while posting a better wRC+, SLG, wOBA, and a higher fWAR. While he’s still posted below-league-average numbers overall, his profile is slightly more intriguing for the time being.

For starters, although he doesn’t record them at a consistent rate, Misner does barrel the ball more and hits the ball harder than Simpson did in the majors.

His barrel rate of 6.5% is higher than Simpson’s mark (remember, he failed to record a barrel in the big leagues), as is his hard-hit rate of 32.7%. While neither of these are inherently good metrics, they’re noticeably better than Simpson’s.

Misner has also recorded a better launch angle, better average exit velocity, and a higher max exit velocity so far this season.

In addition to this, Misner tends to keep the ball off the ground far more than Simpson, as his ground-ball rate is nearly 14% lower than Simpson’s. If Misner can barrel the ball in the air more often, he could have some decent pop. Misner already has a better power profile than Simpson, although it’s still lacking.

Misner also plays elite defense, with his OAA of +5 ranking inside baseball’s 95th percentile. He also comes with a very good arm, something Simpson significantly struggles with. Although he’ll likely have less range due to his speed not being as good as Simpson’s, he still profiles much better defensively.

Misner is far from a consistently good big leaguer, though, as he comes with a slew of his own problems.

His strikeout numbers have been some of the worst marks in the league, as he’s struck out nearly 31% of the time so far this year. He also chases and whiffs often, which contributes to his below-average offensive numbers.

If the Rays decide Misner’s production in center field isn’t improving or worth waiting for, there’s also the potential that Jake Mangum could shift to center field, as he’s performed well in a small sample size.

In just 25 games, Mangum is currently slashing .313/.352/.398 with a 119 wRC+. This type of production has been unmatched by both Simpson and Misner, even though there are concerns in Mangum’s profile. He’s struggled to make consistent, hard contact, but he’s still ended up with better results than the other two players.

Mangum may also have the range to play center field despite currently being in a corner. His +3 OAA put him inside the top portion of the sport, and his arm has graded out similarly. He’s also just shy of the 90th percentile in sprint speed, giving him the ability needed to try his hand at the position.

Did the Rays Make the Right Call?

When asked about the decision, Rays manager Kevin Cash stated this: “They’re all tough decisions, certainly this one was right at the top of the list.” When taking a closer look at the offensive productions of Simpson and his potential replacements, I draw a similar conclusion.

Simpson’s profile, although unique, had worked in a small sample size. Granted, it is difficult to see this continuing over a full season given the other information, such as his concerning batted-ball metrics, and more.

Nonetheless, it’s still something to take into consideration, especially considering Misner hasn’t necessarily succeeded this year either.

It is important to consider that Simpson wasn’t exactly performing extremely well before his promotion either. He had posted a wRC+ of 69 before his promotion, which isn’t a great look. The Rays may be hoping that he can get some more reps in the upper minors before fully giving him a shot, which is a valid stance.

Simpson has shown the ability to be a very good hitter throughout his stops in the minors. Most notably, he posted a 141 wRC+ in 78 Double-A games last season. If the Rays can get similar production from him in Triple-A, that would certainly be an encouraging sign for his second stint in the major leagues.

Whether the Rays made the right call or not is still up for interpretation. It depends on whether you’d rather have the small offensive boost right now from Misner, or whether you’d be willing to wait for Simpson to find his 2024 self again.

Either way, this was an extremely tough decision.

It’ll be interesting to pay attention to Simpson’s progression now that he’s back in Triple-A, as he proved he could help the team when he was in MLB. By using his speed and crafty ways to get on base, he found ways to make his presence felt. If he can rediscover his past offensive profile, he’ll be back with the club in due time.

Stats were taken prior to play on June 4.