Should the Reds Trade JJ Bleday?
Bleday has been one of the hottest hitters in MLB. But is he part of the Reds' long-term plans, or should Cincinnati capitalize on his value at the trade deadline?
| | 
The Cincinnati Reds snuck into the playoffs in 2025 after leaning heavily on their pitching staff and were quickly eliminated, as their offensive flaws were amplified.
Heading into the winter, there was a clear need for offensive help, and addressing the outfield — which had struggled for a number of seasons — was at the top of the priority list.
Instead of acquiring a more proven impact bat, the front office elected to trade for Dane Myers to fill a short-side platoon role and sign JJ Bleday to battle for a corner outfield spot.
Neither felt like the level of move that was needed, but both were viewed as solid additions even though they weren’t much different than the players already within the organization.
Fast forward a few months, and Myers is filling his role nicely while Bleday is trending toward becoming a first-time All-Star. After staring in the minors, Bleday was given an opportunity and immediately added a jolt to the Reds lineup. He’s now slashing .254/.356/.548 with 13 home runs and a 141 wRC+ across 48 games.
No matter the measure, Bleday is pacing for a career-best year in all offensive categories. The power looks real, he is walking near a 14% clip, his strikeouts are down, and it looks like he has found a home in Cincinnati.
However, the Reds are in last place in the NL Central and have been playing well-below .500 baseball since the start of May. Although they are only 2.5 games back in the wild card, there are five teams ahead of them, several of which have more proven rosters and ammo to pull off a deadline move.
As we approach the trade deadline, Cincinnati has work to prove they should not be sellers. If they are, the biggest question will be if they should trade Bleday or keep him as a key part of the lineup moving forward.
Stats were taken prior to play on June 22.
The Argument for Keeping Bleday
Like I mentioned before, the Reds’ outfield situation has been uninspiring for some years. Jake Fraley, Nick Senzel, TJ Friedl, Will Benson, Stuart Fairchild, Spencer Steer, Austin Hays, and other average-to-below-average players have made up for the majority of the outfield for the better part of five seasons.
Even the 2026 Reds are struggling to find a group that instills confidence into the future. Friedl has been demoted, Noelvi Marte hasn’t established himself as a trustworthy bat, Will Benson is close to being off the roster, and Blake Dunn is far from a sure thing.
Without a doubt, Bleday has been the best Reds outfielder not only in 2026, but in recent memory. The former fourth-overall pick has always had the tools but not always the opportunity to prove his talent. While many fans didn’t expect this level of production, it’s not surprising to see him bust onto the scene given his talent.
Although Bleday’s pace is unlikely to remain at this level, he can still be a solid contributor for years to come. We saw him post a 20-homer and 120-wRC+ season just two years ago in Oakland. Last year was full of injury and a crowded outfield, leaving him as the odd man out with the Athletics.
Maybe what we are seeing now is not the expectation moving forward, but to think he can remain an above-average power bat for the next few seasons is well within the possible outcomes.
Cincinnati has been a righty-heavy lineup, and Bleday’s lefty bat has helped to balance it. Considering the park the Reds play in, you would expect more home runs, but power has been an issue in recent seasons. That makes Bleday’s power surge that much more important to the Reds’ lineup.
When Bleday joined the Reds, he did so on a one-year, $1.4 million contract. However, because he was non-tendered with the A’s, he still comes with team control in 2027 and 2028 before hitting free agency at age 31. If you believe a player’s prime comes between ages 26 and 32, the Reds will still have him under relatively cheap team control during his prime.
A rebuild should not be the focus in Cincinnati. Is the team flawed? Absolutely. But when you have two young stars in Chase Burns and Elly De La Cruz with Sal Stewart narrowly missing that title — not to mention Hunter Greene — the time to focus on winning aligns with the two additional years of team control Bleday has.
Fans know all too well that Reds rebuilds have failed. The ability to churn players in and out like the Brewers or Rays and still sustain success has not been proven with this franchise. In order to have the best chance at competing, the Reds need to hold on to Bleday.
But, there’s other factors that could make trading Bleday make sense.
The Argument for Trading Bleday
The Reds’ record is what it is, and being so close to a wild card after years without much success makes fans want to push the gas pedal and add at the deadline instead of trading pieces away. While I’ll never fault anyone for wanting to see their team try to win, I think it is important to understand what this Reds team truly is.
According to Baseball Reference, the Reds, sitting at 37-39 and 2.5 games back of a playoff spot, have a 3.8% chance to make the playoffs. Their expected win-loss record is 33-43. They are 17-28 since May 1, their bullpen is a mess, and their -46 run differential is third worst in the National League.
If we are being honest, the 2026 Reds are not a very good baseball team. Sure, that does not mean that they cannot go on a run, win some games, and sneak into the playoffs like we saw last season. Anything can happen in the postseason. But, a team that is in last place in their division on June 22 doesn’t really get to act like that’s a very realistic outcome.
Would capitalizing on Bleday’s hot stretch be the worst idea? If you want the Reds to operate like the best small-market teams often do, a Bleday trade would make sense.
The changes that are coming in the CBA could impact this season’s trade deadline drastically. Players with money and term on their deal might be less likely to be moved due to the uncertainty around a possible salary cap, making cheaper players with control — like Bleday — more valuable.
Not to mention the Reds’ farm system could use some help. Personally, I am not high on the current system, especially on the pitching side where I think the Reds are very much in trouble.
Cincinnati has prospects that I do think have fairly high ceilings, but only one player that I think has All-Star potential in Afredo Duno. Even then, I have my concerns with the 20 year-old catcher who is a couple of years away. My biggest concern has to do with the system’s depth.
For a small-market team like the Reds, they lean heavily on internal development leading to upgrades on the roster and depth to make it through 162 games. The upper minors have a concerning amount of potential major leaguers with more of the system’s intrigue coming in the lower minors.
If the Reds could get a package back that includes two well-regarded prospects, there’s a strong argument that they should pull the trigger, sell high, and help supplement a system that could use some help.
Final Thoughts
I am not one to want to keep every single player that shows any sign of life, nor do I think collecting prospects every year to always focus on the future is a very fun game to play. I will also admit that I had my concerns about Bleday heading into the season and still do think there’s a decent chance we are seeing a hot streak and not the start of sustainable success.
With that being said, I think the Reds should hold onto Bleday instead of trading him.
What we have seen in a relatively small sample shows the type of ceiling he can have. Cincinnati has not had many high-ceiling, high-floor outfielders in recent years, and I believe Bleday can be just that.
Trading off talent has not come with the strongest track record with this franchise, and they cannot afford to lose the years of control when you consider how they have addressed the outfield via free agency and trades in recent years.
If we were talking about Bleday being on a different team in a different situation, I would be much more likely to say they should trade him. But with the Reds, I do not have as much confidence in their ability to get the right prospects back, develop them, and supplement Bleday’s loss while we wait for those prospects to blossom.
Become a Member of Just Baseball
Subscribe and upgrade to go ad-free!
* Save 25% by subscribing annually.
Written by