The Padres Have Become a Team Nobody Wants to Face

In the first half of the season, the San Diego Padres were the most confusing team in all of baseball. 

Offensively, the team ranked 30th in average (.226), on-base percentage (.302), and runs scored (379). 

Individually, the team was beyond disappointing.

Fernando Tatis Jr. went homerless through the first 55 games and ended the first half with five. He still had a solid batting average of .277, but the power drought left him as nothing more than a league-average hitter. 

Manny Machado batted .203, but somewhat salvaged the first half with a team-leading 19 home runs. In terms of batting average, this was the worst start to a season in Machado’s career. 

Jackson Merrill’s approach was very costly, leading him to strike out 25% of the time while batting a mere .219 with 10 home runs. 

Pitching-wise, the rotation was just as frustrating. The team ranked 27th in ERA (4.78), 28th in innings pitched (442.1), and 29th in quality starts (17).

Michael King was the only viable starter, posting a 3.41 ERA with 92 strikeouts across 108.1 innings pitched.

The rotation after King consisted of Walker Buehler, Randy Vasquez, Griffin Canning, German Marquez, JP Sears, Matt Waldron, and Lucas Giolito. 

All of these pitchers had their issues and it got to a point where manager Craig Stammen implemented a “pitching chaos” strategy in July to string together wins. 

Despite being near the bottom of the league in offense and starting pitching, the team mustered a 48-48 record, remaining in the thick of the wild-card hunt. 

It felt like there were only two paths the Padres were going to fall under: either the team remained severely average, or the stars began to show up and things could turn around.

The Padres opted for the latter.

For the last two months, they have been the best team in baseball. They have won 32 out of their last 48 games and have transformed into a legitimate World Series-caliber team.

Offensive Resurgence

This dramatic turnaround has started with Tatis, who has only gotten better as the season has gone along. 

So far in September, he is batting .333 with a 1.090 OPS with six home runs. He has re-established himself as one of baseball’s premier players.

Merrill has rebounded with a .311 batting average and a .933 OPS since the start of August. He has hit 10 home runs in that span, bringing his total to 25 for the season. He adopted a “screw it” approach and has gotten back to the 2024 version that nearly netted him the National League Rookie of the Year Award. 

Out of the stars, Machado hasn’t fully gotten back to the player we have seen in the past. There is no doubt this will go down as the worst statistical year, but he is at least supplying thump. He owns a .862 OPS with four home runs this month, but is batting .234. 

Ty France has been rock solid all season, holding the offense together during the dark days of the first half. In the second half, he is batting .323 with nine home runs and 33 RBI, continuing his breakout season. 

The complementary pieces have been supporting around the stars, too

Luis Campusano has come up big with multiple walk-off hits. Luis Regnifo, before his season unfortunately ended, was a huge offensive spark plug. And Dustin Harris has been surprisingly solid since being called up.

The offense as a whole has gone from scrappy to one that can bang with the best.

Elite Bullpen

Now the offense has become a real force; this makes the league’s best bullpen exponentially more dangerous. 

We all know the type of season Mason Miller is having. It’s been nothing but pure domination and the closest thing to a sure three outs in the ninth inning. 

But even before a team gets to Miller, there is a plethora of names Stammen has at his disposal that can be trusted in high-leverage situations. 

Adrian Morejon is enjoying another season as a top-five reliever, posting a 2.87 ERA with 100 strikeouts in 81.2 innings. It’s incredible the workload he can handle while remaining so effective. 

Bradgley Rodriguez has broken out this season with a 2.38 ERA in 68 innings and has been a Swiss Army knife for Stammen. He has opened games, come into middle relief, and pitched in high-leverage innings.

The list keeps going on and on.

Yuki Matsui has an ERA under two, Wandy Peralta and Kyle Hart have been much-needed inning eaters, and yet there are more names.

Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada have been banged up this season, but both will return, and it is hard to imagine that they won’t be effective. 

In short, if the Padres have a lead past the fifth inning, good luck trying to get it back.

If There Was One Shortcoming…

What is keeping this team from being an absolute juggernaut is that the rotation has not yet solidified.

A.J. Preller brought in Casey Mize and Robbie Ray at the trade deadline, but neither has impressed. 

In eight starts, Mize owns a 5.97 ERA. In eight starts of his own, Ray hasn’t been any better, with a 5.22 ERA. 

Both have shown flashes of being top-of-the-rotation starters, but they are running out of time to figure things out. Given how both have pitched, it would be insanely hard to trust them in October. 

Nick Pivetta has made two starts since returning from the injured list, but there are some concerns with him, too. The fastball velocity has fluctuated, and he has been giving up plenty of hard contact. 

The velocity is understandable, given that it was an elbow injury that is working back from; however, the hard contact isn’t sustainable.

This leaves you with Walker Buehler, and to his credit, he has been pitching well. In his last 10 starts, he has a 3.33 ERA, but it isn’t the most exciting brand of baseball. 

Final Thoughts

No team is playing better baseball than the Padres, plain and simple. 

The star core of Tatis, Merrill, Machado, and France have propelled this team back into contention and has allowed the bullpen to be used to its maximum potential. 

What has generally been a strength, the rotation, is now what remains the team’s biggest question mark. 

Maybe there will be a reversal of the prior years, where the team can slug their way to and through the postseason, while leaning on their bullpen.

If the rotation can get right come playoff time, there is nothing stopping this team from winning its first championship.