Edwin Arroyo’s Adjustments Warrant a Promotion to the Reds
The switch-hitting shortstop prospect could be an answer for Cincinnati's struggling offense.
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The Cincinnati Reds jumped out to a scorching start before a 2-8 stretch landed them at 22-20, which surprisingly puts them in last place in the NL Central. After pitching led them to the playoffs in 2025, it has held them back in 2026. They currently rank 26th in ERA and 28th in FIP.
Injuries and underperformance on the pitching staff have forced an emphasis on the offense picking up the slack. An offense that was essentially Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart doing it all, until Nathaniel Lowe and JJ Bleday pitched in. Overall, consistency has yet to be found.
The leadoff spot has been anchored by TJ Friedl and his 50 wRC+, while the bottom third has been filled with Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain, and Ke’Bryan Hayes, all struggling to find their footing. While certain players are stepping up, there are simply too many at-bats being filled by well-below-average players.
Overall, the Reds rank 26th in runs scored, 26th in wRC+, and 25th in OPS. Offense was an issue last season, and so far, it has been an issue this season. Eugenio Suárez, who is set to return from injury soon, should help, but could the Reds use more than Suárez to boost the lineup?
As always, eyes turn straight to the minor leagues, because every 19 to 23-year-old is always the bulletproof answer to any team’s problems, right? Jokes aside, the Reds could have an answer in Edwin Arroyo.
Arroyo, 22, has been considered a top prospect for what feels like a decade at this point. The switch-hitting shortstop came over from Seattle in the Luis Castillo trade back in 2022. He’s bounced up and down prospect rankings, but the Arroyo we are seeing in 2026 is the best we have seen since he joined the Reds organization.
What Arroyo Could Offer the Reds
The reason why so many fans are intrigued with the idea of Arroyo joining the Reds is because of how good he has been in Triple-A Louisville. Through 39 games, Arroyo is slashing .342/.408/.590 with eight home runs, five stolen bases, and a 156 wRC+. Considering he is already on the 40-man roster, a promotion would be that much easier and even more tempting.
Arroyo’s offensive game starts with contact. Throughout the minors, he has been more of a bat-to-ball profile who can spray the ball around the field and use his speed to collect extra-base hits. While I think that is still the safest archetype to profile Arroyo, the added power this season is intriguing.
Let’s start with contact. Arroyo is currently running a 85.8% zone contact rate paired with a 20.6% whiff rate to start the season (per Prospect Savant). A simple, repeatable load with a slight lift of his front foot keeps the operation simple, and his quick hands do the rest.
Arroyo’s barrel control allows for him to cover all areas of the zone well and make solid contact no matter where the pitch lands. This alone is a good sign for players who could be transitioning from the minors to the majors. Being able to reduce cold spots in the zone makes it that much more difficult for pitchers to attack you.
One area that Arroyo will have to clean up in order to find success at the next level is pitch recognition and chasing pitches outside of the zone. While his plus contact rates have saved him from more strikeouts, his 34.9% chase rate is high and likely to only increase once he faces better breaking balls with improved command at the major league level.
Where Arroyo has shown the most improvement has been in the power department. After hitting only three home runs in 120 games last season in Double-A, Arroyo’s eight home runs this season are pacing to blow his previous high (13 in 87 G, ’22 Single-A) out of the water. His .248 ISO is a career best and well above his .086 last season and .181 in 2023.
What has led to the power surge? It could be a number of factors. Arroyo tore his labrum, causing him to miss the 2024 season, which likely played into his pedestrian 2025 numbers. Being another year older and simply developing more helps, too. But, there is also a change to his swing.
The picture on the top is from spring training 2025, while the bottom picture is from this year. You can see that Arroyo is starting his hands higher this season, his bat angle is closer to his swing plane, more weight is on his back leg, and his lead leg is less bent.
The 2026 stance allows for more weight distribution into your swing, and the bat path allows for less barrel movement during the swinging motion. I’m not a swing expert or hitting coach, but this is what I have noticed.
All you have to do is stand up and replicate these stances. You’ll notice the difference in feel immediately. While the 2025 stance is more balanced and might even help produce more consistent contact, the current stance allows for more impact.
I think we are seeing this pay off in real time. Arroyo is driving the ball with more authority and pulling the ball in the air more than I have seen in previous years – in fact, 25.2% of the time.
He has gone from a high-floor bat that probably didn’t have more than 10-12 home runs in him into a player that could take advantage of the right and left field dimensions of Great American Ball Park more regularly.
In addition to his offensive upside, Arroyo would not be a major drop-off defensively. He was regarded as an elite glove when he was a younger prospect, and I think that narrative ran a little too far. Without a doubt, I still think he’s a plus defender, but elite would not be a fair expectation.
While shortstop has been his primary position throughout the minors, it is more likely that he plays elsewhere in the majors. That Elly De La Cruz guy is pretty good at short. So, if Elly is at short, where does Arroyo fit?
How Arroyo Fits Into the Lineup
What happens at the minor league level can often tell us what to expect in the majors. Not always, but reading the tea leaves is important. So far, Arroyo has played 27 games at short, 12 at second, and two at third. Yes, those two games at third are the first appearances at the position in his career. The 12 games at second matches his season total from 2025.
So, second and third are the more likely positions in my opinion, and they so happen to match two of the positions the Reds are getting the least out of. Let’s walk through a couple of scenarios.
Scenario #1: Arroyo Plays 2B, McLain Platooned/Benched
McLain has started the season slashing .204/.312/.306 with three home runs and a 77 wRC+. If you back the numbers up to include the 2025 season, we are looking at 189 games at a .216/.302/.335 slash and 77 wRC+. After 748 plate appearances at a 77 wRC+ and .637 OPS, I’d say it’s time to welcome the idea of something new.
Arroyo would not be a drop-off defensively (McLain has +2 OAA at second this season) and would be given an opportunity to prove himself at the plate. At the end of the day, it’s a low bar to clear.
This move would also give the Reds a true infielder on their bench, which is something they do not have with Will Benson, Blake Dunn, and Dane Myers all filling roster spots. Suárez coming back could push Hayes to a bench role, but he’s limited to one position. McLain can fill short, second, and perhaps third.
Considering McLain does hit lefties well, they could platoon him or use him in late-game scenarios. It would not be the worst idea for the Reds to have him in their back pocket to use when the opponent brings in a lefty late in the game.
Scenario #2: Arroyo Up, Hayes Benched, McLain Optioned
Arroyo getting some time at third in Louisville is very noteworthy. The Reds took on Hayes’ ugly contract and are more or less stuck with it. Hayes has now amassed 5.075 years of service time, and once a player surpasses 5.00 years, they have to consent to being optioned.
Unfortunately, Hayes has been downright awful at the plate. A .136/.191/.223 slash and 10 wRC+ is even worse than the 60 and 65 wRC+ he posted the past two seasons. Cincinnati acquired him for his elite defensive ability, but he currently has -1 OAA and is tracking for by far the worst defensive season of his career.
I do not think the Reds will cut a player they acquired less than a year ago, with four additional years on his contract, this soon. Could he accept a minor league assignment in order to protect his contract? Sure, but optioning McLain might be the first attempt at finding a solution.
If McLain goes to Louisville, he has an opportunity to try to climb out of the hole he’s been in for over a year. Perhaps the Reds even try him at different positions to make him more of a utility piece, similar to (insert disgusted face) Nick Senzel. Hayes would serve as a defensive replacement, while Suáarez/Arroyo could start at third.
Would using Hayes this way be the best use of a roster spot? No, but the Reds have made a theme of bad roster spot usage over the past year. They carried Austin Wynns for over a month with two other catchers on the roster, and currently have a team that has more outfielders than they know what to do with
Final Thoughts
The Reds’ record is much better than the product we have seen on the field. I think we can all agree on that, no matter how analytically driven you are. However, for once, things have gone the Reds’ way, and you cannot take those wins from them. The question now is how they can bounce back and save themselves from losing too much ground.
I think it starts with giving Arroyo a chance. I like that the Reds allowed McLain to get another shot at being an everyday player, but the offense is nowhere near good enough to have a glove-first second baseman and a glove-only third baseman. Something has got to give.
Adding Arroyo now would allow the Reds to observe him over a large enough sample to get a better idea of what they need at the deadline. Or, what needs to go. It’s time to treat every game with the magnitude that they deserve. You want to get back to the postseason? Then things need to change.
You cannot continue to bat Friedl leadoff just because he’s the old school prototype. McLain cannot keep getting everyday opportunities while he’s making zero adjustments. Hayes? Well, I’ve said enough there.
Cincinnati is not good enough to go about a season in a way that more talented teams do. The margin for error is smaller, and each win means that much more. By now, we have the sample size and data that suggest a change should be made. Don’t be afraid and make the move.
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