We pressed buttons and watched baseball yesterday. We went 1-1 for 0.00 units; free entertainment.

I would take that Rockies play 10/10 times. Spots like that are historically very profitable; they didn’t get the job done. Albert Suarez continues to defy the odds; good for him. The Guardians team total over was never a sweat. They scored early and often, going over 4.5 in the fifth inning and ending with ten runs. It’s clear right now – attack totals. Of our 11-5 run, three of those losses have been money lines. Let’s stick with what works, my favorite total of the day.

If anyone is interested in my NFL Futures (+35.25 Units in 2023), click here.

2024 Record: 110-112 (-5.76 U)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds @ 7:15 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Frankie Montas (4.64 ERA) vs. Fernando Cruz (5.17 ERA)

I was initially interested in fading Frankie Montas in his return to Cincinnati. However, to back a Reds bullpen game after a double-header against this Milwaukee offense would be foolish, especially considering the Brewers are a much better team. On top of it all, it’s one of those games where we should see thunderstorms on a hot day, increasing the humidity. That tends to make the balls fly in Great American Ballpark, making it an effortless place to put up runs today.

The Reds signed Frankie Montas to a one-year deal this off-season, then traded him to a division rival. That doesn’t happen often. The man could not pitch at Great American Ballpark, rocking a 5.11 ERA over 44 innings. He’s in the 22nd percentile of Hard-Hit rate, and he has a below-average ground-ball rate. That is not a good recipe for a stadium as small as GABP, especially when your strikeout and walk rates are below average.

He deserves his 4.64 ERA. His SIERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP hover in the same area. He’s not that good of a pitcher who never performed in this ballpark. The Reds have not been a terrific offense lately, ranking 20th in wRC+ since August began and 24th over the last two weeks. At home against righties this season, they have the 12th-highest OPS. Knowing Montas’ shortcomings in GAPB and the Reds knowing how he pitches, I can’t see them not having success against him today.

The Brewers should continue to hit today. They have the fourth-best offense by wRC+ in August at 123 against RHP. Over the last two weeks, they have a 111 wRC+, 11% better than the league average. They have been a top-ten offense against righties all season long, and against righties on the road, they are the fourth best offense in the league.

The reason I’m harping on righties is the Reds bullpen is filled with righties. They have a few lefties, but Sam Moll threw 20 pitches yesterday, Justin Wilson has an ERA in the mid-fours, and Evan Kravetz has recorded two outs in his professional career at 27 years old.

The Reds bullpen has six arms that have thrown over 30 pitches in the last three days. They only got nine innings combined from the starters, and one of the games went into extra innings.

The Brewers bullpen is fantastic, but they are also in a poor rest spot after the double-header. Koenig and Williams have thrown 35+ pitches over the last three days, and Megill is at 29. Payamps, Ross, and Ashby have all been used twice in the previous three days, and Hudson threw 19 pitches yesterday. I don’t see Montas pitching well, so the Reds likely won’t see elite pitching throughout the game.

This game soars over, a classic GAPB game that ends in double-digit runs. There is heavy blow-up potential on both sides with how volatile the bullpens are at the moment. At this price, I love the over, and if you want plus money, BetMGM is hanging 9.5 at +115. That’s a good number, but I’ll stick with nine for push potential.

The Pick: Brewers vs. Reds Over 9 (-105) Risk 1.05 Units

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.