The Rafael Devers Trade Looks More Complicated by the Day

Seldom does a good baseball team trade its best hitter midseason, much less six weeks before the trade deadline.

However, that’s what the Boston Red Sox did on Father’s Day 2025 when they dealt longtime third baseman-turned-disgruntled designated hitter Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants.

At the time, Devers’ historically awful start to the regular season was a distant memory. Pretending the season started on April 1, Devers slashed .292/.418/.542 with 15 homers, 18 doubles, and a 160 wRC+ in his final 311 plate appearances in Boston. In fact, his final at-bat with the team was symbolic as he hit an opposite-field home run off of New York Yankees ace Max Fried in a game the Red Sox won 2-0.

That game was also symbolic because the team seemed to stabilize itself. Top prospects Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer had already debuted, and the team had won six straight including a sweep of the archrival Yankees. But hours after that Sunday afternoon ballgame, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow shocked the baseball world.

Devers was now a San Francisco Giant.

The trade made no sense at the time. While getting out from under eight years at over $30 million annually entirely is enticing, the return still felt light. Going back to Boston was left-hander Kyle Harrison, right-hander Jordan Hicks, and prospects James Tibbs III and Jose Bello.

The Red Sox appeared not to miss Devers as they made their first postseason since 2021, but even with Alex Bregman returned from the injured list, Anthony missed the Wild Card round; as did Mayer. The Red Sox felt two bats short all of September (99 team wRC+), then were the worst offense in the playoffs.

But that trade is still complicated to this day, so let’s talk about why.

The Ever-Growing Trade Tree

As mentioned, the Red Sox offloaded Devers’ entire contract to the Giants. In return, they got Harrison — a former top pitching prospect — and the right-handed flamethrower in Hicks as pitchers in the deal.

Hicks came to Boston already hurt and having disappointed in his time as a starter with the Giants. Breslow praised Hicks coming over, despite the 6.47 ERA, mentioning him as someone with success as a high-leverage reliever. However, nothing clicked with him in Boston, as an 8.20 ERA in 21 outings ballooned his season mark to 6.95.

He eventually went back on the IL in early September and never pitched for the Red Sox again. Then, owed north of $10 million per year for 2026 and 2027, was traded alongside pitching prospect David Sandlin and cash. The return was some salary relief but at the expense of Sandlin, who’s seen his fastball reach triple digits in the minors.

Harrison, the prize of the deal, also found himself in a recent trade. He looked alright in 12 innings for the Red Sox, posting a 3.00 ERA and 2.47 FIP, but now he’s a Milwaukee Brewer. The Red Sox traded him, pitching prospect Shane Drohan and middle infielder David Hamilton for infielder Caleb Durbin and utilitymen Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler.

Durbin was good as a rookie, but so much of his offensive profile hints at him being nothing more than a fringe average bat with value as a versatile infield defender.

As for Tibbs, he was quickly re-routed six weeks later to the Los Angeles Dodgers organization alongside Zach Ehrhard for right-hander Dustin May. The oft-injured right-hander had a few moments in Boston, but overall had a 5.40 ERA, saw himself demoted to the bullpen, placed on the IL, and is now a St. Louis Cardinal.

Giants Received 1.3 fWAR in exchange for -0.1 fWAR in 2025 value.

Was Devers awesome for the Giants? No, but he found his footing. In 90 games, he slashed .236/.347/.460 with 20 homers and 51 RBI. He had a 132 wRC+ from July 1 onward, clubbing 18 home runs and driving in 46 across 337 plate appearances.

Inconsistent Messaging

One thing that remains frustrating for Red Sox fans is the consistently inconsistent approach Breslow’s had after three offseasons at the helm.

This winter promised significant improvement. From a rotation standpoint, it’s hard to argue against that having happened. Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo, and the most recent addition of Ranger Suárez give the Red Sox a top rotation in the game.

However, their lineup enters the year a huge question mark. They lost Bregman to the Chicago Cubs, for starters. While positionally, it seems likely they’re handing the keys over to Mayer, his production appears replaced by Willson Contreras at first base.

That’s fine, Contreras is a good hitter with more power potential at this stage of his career.

However, even with Anthony set to return and likely make a significant impact, that still leaves them a bat short. They didn’t make a worthwhile offer to Pete Alonso — Baltimore Orioles — nor made an offer to Eugenio Suárez — Cincinnati Reds. They missed out on Bo Bichette — New York Mets — nor were they willing to get uncomfortable to acquire superstar second baseman Ketel Marte.

But the main problem the Red Sox still face is they have five outfielders and only three spots to play them. Anthony is a lock, as appears to be center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. That leaves Wilyer Abreu, 2024 All-Star Game MVP Jarren Duran, and 2023 offseason signing Masataka Yoshida.

Moving one of those guys — doesn’t matter who — completely eradicates the problem. While they’ve injury-proofed the outfield, what happens if that group stays healthy. Are the Red Sox prepared to pay Yoshida $18 million to sit on the bench?

Is he even valuable enough to keep around as a reserve?

The lineup is an expected area of weakness, with nobody projected more than 18 homers on ZiPS entering 2026.

So, What About Caleb Durbin?

Durbin had an impressive rookie season for the Milwaukee Brewers. In fact, the almost-26-year-old finished third in Rookie of the Year voting.

However, the Brewers, who are oftentimes pinching pennies, traded a cost-controlled productive infielder for a rather light return. They’ve done that twice this offseason, too, having previously dealt outfielder Isaac Collins to the Kansas City Royals for Angel Zerpa.

Durbin is a fine player, but it seems the consensus is skewed by his finish in Rookie of the Year voting. At face value, a 105 wRC+ and 2.6 fWAR is good — definitely nothing to scoff at. That said, when you look deeper at his offensive profile, not a whole lot suggests it’s sustainable.

In 2025, Durbin was 12th percentile for barrel rate, fourth percentile hard hit, 16th percentile expected slugging, sixth percentile bat speed, and 21st percentile for walk rate. The silver lining, he makes a ton of contact and is comfortably above average in avoiding chase.

But let’s do a quick side-by-side comparison of 2025 Durbin to a former Red Sox middle infielder: Christian Arroyo.

Perhaps somewhat unfair to Durbin, as Arroyo only played 57 games in 2021. But offensively, he was pretty similar to Durbin again in 2022 across 87 games. Injuries were always Arroyo’s problem before bottoming out performance-wise in 2023. But nobody was saying the Red Sox lineup needed someone of that caliber hitter, just more volume, for 2026.

Especially a few days removed from signing Isiah Kiner-Falefa … it just doesn’t make sense.

Remembering How They Got Here

Devers isn’t blameless in all of this, and that’s important to remember. Had he been more open to “doing right by the team,” he’d likely still be there. However, the concept of trading your 146 wRC+ DH because he won’t learn the routine of a second position in a few months is still puzzling.

Let’s not forget when the Red Sox signed Bregman last February, the reports circulated that he’d be the team’s second baseman. Devers reported to camp slightly behind the eight-ball in his shoulder rehab that ended his 2024, but they immediately de-committed from him at the position.

Now, Devers was one of, if not the worst defenders at the position, but consistently ranked near the top of the leaderboard despite that. Not only that, but he’d also often find himself above Bregman on those lists.

But coupled with the eagerness to have Bregman at third, the Red Sox were equally driven to get top infield prospect Kristian Campbell on the Opening Day roster. For a month, that seemed genius. He signed a long-term pre-arbitration extension during the first road trip and was a top 20 hitter in April.

Then his offensive production took a nosedive and his lingering defensive woes at second base made it hard for the Red Sox to justify keeping him at the MLB level. He got demoted and never re-called in 2025.

So, Let’s Recap!

The Red Sox signed Bregman to play second base, with Devers at third. Changed their mind before the ink dried on Bregman’s contract because they loved Campbell. As a result, they alienated Devers by forcing him to DH.

Then, when Triston Casas ruptured his patellar tendon in May, they went to Devers again. After telling him his defense was so bad he needed to put his glove away, and even a Bregman injury wasn’t letting him play the infield again, he needed to play first for the betterment of the team. He refused, unless they were willing to make him the long-term first baseman.

Fast forward six weeks, he’s a Giant. Fast forward eight months, only Bello remains in the organization.

It was, and always was, about shedding Devers’ payroll. It’d be silly to ignore the cultural aspect of it, but actions speak much louder than words in this case. If this were about culture, keeping Bregman should’ve been a greater priority. If they were going to get another first baseman this offseason anyway, why not commit to Devers when he asked you to last summer?

No amount of litigation will undo the trade, but it’s fair to ask if the Red Sox are better off having done it.