MLB Playoff Power Rankings: World Series Favorites, Dark Horses

Homage is running a buy one, get one 40% off deal to celebrate the start of MLB playoffs. It’s perfect time to upgrade your team merch collection with Homage, click any of the Homage items pictured below to take advantage of this limited time offer.

12. Cincinnati Reds

Just because the Reds occupy the final spot on this list does not mean they don’t have a chance.

Of all the playoff teams, the Reds’ 83 wins are by far the lowest of the bunch. However, we shouldn’t forget they scored more regular-season runs than the San Diego Padres, who are featured far higher on this list.

There are multiple teams that fit the bill of being a “pesky” one, but the Reds fall under that umbrella. Pesky teams usually aren’t the sexiest pick, but the big issue standing in the Reds’ way is the fact their opponent in the upcoming Wild Card Series is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Dodgers are one of the top National League heavyweights, and they’re going to get some love much, much later on this list. This is a team that won 10 more games than the Reds, while scoring over 100 runs more than their upcoming WC opponent.

Things look bleak for the Reds right off the bat, but don’t sleep on the front-end of that rotation. The club had five starters throw 40 or more innings in this year’s second half, and four of them posted ERAs of 3.84 or under.

Fortunately, the top three – Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott – would be the three pitchers to start games in the upcoming WC Series. Getting solid starts from even two of them would be massive to help the Reds play underdog.

Does it feel like 1990 again?

11. Detroit Tigers

The Tigers fell apart down the stretch in a way we’ve never seen before. Fortunately, they were able to hold on to a playoff spot and just barely sneak in via the Wild Card round.

On paper, this team is still as lethal as any, but the problem is that they haven’t been able to consistently string together wins in months. They had only two qualified hitters post a wRC+ north of 100 in the second half (Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson), while most others failed to even hit their body weight.

Only three pitchers threw 50 or more innings in the second half, but soon-to-be two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal remained as dominant as ever. That alone means the Tigers should be good for a win in Game 1 of the WC Series as long as the offense can score two or three runs.

Getting past that is going to be the problem. Again, this is a team that showed time and time again throughout the regular season that they’ve got what it takes to make a deep run. Hell, they had the best record in baseball at the All-Star break.

Still, the trajectory they’ve been on basically ever since is a major cause for concern. They squeaked past the Reds here based on how dominant they looked at times throughout the year, but they’ve got to get things turned around if there’s going to be any real hope.

10. Cleveland Guardians

Over the final five weeks of the regular season, the Guardians had the best record in baseball. Their last-minute hot streak proved just enough for them to usurp the Tigers in the AL Central and secure home field advantage for the upcoming Wild Card Series.

Yet, as terrific as they’ve been lately, we can’t forget that the Guardians only finished one game ahead of the Tigers in the standings. More to the point, they were a sub-.500 ballclub over the first five months of the season.

So, the big question for the Guardians is whether the fire underneath them will keep burning for another month, or if this team is due for some serious regression.

José Ramírez is a superstar, Cade Smith is a stud closer, and Steven Kwan is the best defensive left fielder in the game. But those three aside, this team is low on star power and high on question marks.

9. Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox made it very clear they weren’t kidding around this past offseason, and Craig Breslow’s efforts to build a postseason contender paid off. New ace Garrett Crochet and new closer Aroldis Chapman have led the pitching staff, while Alex Bregman has proven to be an excellent addition to Boston’s talented young position player core.

With all that said, there are reasons the Red Sox will be playing in the Wild Card Series instead of enjoying the comforts of a first-round bye. Their starting rotation has its question marks after Crochet, and their offense has been decidedly less potent ever since they traded DH Rafael Devers to the Giants in June.

With Lucas Giolito nursing an elbow injury, Boston will likely turn to rookie Connelly Early as their no. 3 starter (at least for the first round). If the rookie keeps pitching like he did in his first four MLB starts, this low ranking for the Red Sox could end up looking foolish. Of course, that’s a big “if” for a 23-year-old with fewer than 20 big league innings to his name.

8. Chicago Cubs

Let’s start with the glass-half-empty perspective. Matthew Boyd and Shoto Imanaga struggled down the stretch. Cade Horton was electric, but he will miss at least the first round of the playoffs with a rib injury. In other words, the Cubs are in trouble.

Now for the more positive spin. Boyd and Imanaga were two of the best pitchers in the game for most of the season. Hopefully, Horton will return if the Cubs advance. And in his place, they have a couple of solid No. 3 options to choose from in Jameson Taillon and Colin Rea, both of whom looked terrific in September and finished the season with ERAs under 4.00.

The Cubs have no shortage of reliable arms in their bullpen either, even if they’re lacking a true stud to terrify opponents in the late innings. And ultimately, if the pitchers ever falter, they have one of the league’s best defenses behind them to pick up the slack.

As for the bats, they went through a rough patch in August, but things picked back up in September. There’s no doubt the Cubs have a good offense, but if they want to have a great offense, they’ll need the likes of Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong to step up like we know they can.

7. San Diego Padres

Last year, the Los Angeles Dodgers went out of their way to compliment the San Diego Padres as the toughest team they faced in their path to winning the World Series. Now here they are again, with a slightly different cast of characters, but the same formula to try to make a deep playoff run.

The top stars in the lineup are the same, with Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and of course, Fernando Tatis Jr.

Once again armed with a super bullpen to help shut down games, the Padres are very dangerous as soon as they get a lead, and are primed to thrive in the short-series format of a Wild Card round.

If they can make it through that, who knows how far the Padres could go?

6. New York Yankees

Could you argue the Yankees are a stronger team than the Blue Jays? Absolutely. But Toronto took the season series eight games to five, and because of that, the Blue Jays get a bye through the first round of the playoffs, while the Yankees have to host the Red Sox for a best-of-three Wild Card Series.

Then, even if the Yankees win that series, they’ll head to Toronto to face the Jays without either of Max Fried or Carlos Rodón available to pitch Game 1 of the ALDS.

So, the Yankees are facing an uphill battle to defend their AL pennant. Still, I can see why you wouldn’t want to bet against the team of Aaron Judge, especially when he has a stronger supporting case behind him than he did last year. Juan Soto may be gone, but Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and the mighty Giancarlo Stanton make up one of the deepest lineups in the playoff field.

On the other side of the ball, Fried, Rodón, and Cam Schlitter make for a great top three in a Gerrit Cole-less rotation. Meanwhile, the arm barn still has a sky-high ceiling, even if it hasn’t quite been the super-bullpen fans were hoping for.

5. Toronto Blue Jays

It all came down to the final day of the season, but the Blue Jays held on to secure the AL East title and a first-round bye. That bye is going to be crucial for Toronto, perhaps more so than anyone else.

The Blue Jays have a solid one-two punch atop their rotation in Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber, and getting to line those two up to open the ALDS will make a big difference. So too will (hopefully) getting Bo Bichette back from the injured list. Toronto’s lineup has not looked nearly as dangerous since the star shortstop and his 134 wRC+ landed on the IL.

If the Blue Jays are going to win this October, they’re going to need to hit and field their way to victory, especially when Gausman and Bieber aren’t on the mound. Thankfully, their lineup led by Bichette, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of the strongest in the sport, as is their defense led by Daulton Varsho, Andrés Giménez, and Alejandro Kirk.

4. Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers head into the postseason with overall home-field advantage and will look to build upon their historic regular season.

Offensively, this lineup is as deep as any. Among players with at least 200 plate appearances, the Brewers have 10 players with a wRC+ above 100.

Brice Turang has experienced a power surge this season, joining Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, and William Contreras as the leaders at the top of the order. The offense may not have as high of a ceiling as some of the other teams in the NL, but its floor is as high as any.

Pitching wise, this bullpen has been tremendous all season long. They sport the third-best bullpen ERA in the NL on the year and the second-best since the All-Star break. With Trevor Megill returning from the IL just in time for the postseason, it’s a bullpen that features a strong blend of depth and top-end talent for October.

There are some questions in the starting rotation following the injury to Brandon Woodruff, whose status is still up in the air, but Freddy Peralta and Quinn Priester create a formidable one-two punch for Milwaukee.

Jose Quintana appears on track to return from the IL to get the ball behind those two arms, giving the Brewers a capable and proven postseason arm to round out the top three in the rotation.

The Brewers play a fundamentally sound brand of baseball that is difficult to beat, but this is a team that has struggled mightily in the postseason and they’re not playing their sharpest baseball heading into October. Does this team have what it takes to finally get over the hump? Only time will tell.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers were supposed to be number one by a mile this season, but things don’t always go according to plan. Now, the super team that’s supposedly “ruining baseball” will have to win a best-of-three Wild Card series against the Reds if they want to advance in October.

Thankfully for the Dodgers, they have an absolute beast of a postseason rotation, led by Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Ohtani. It’s a rotation so stacked that Tyler Glasnow and Emmet Sheehan will be pitching out of the bullpen in the Wild Card Series, and Clayton Kershaw won’t even make the roster.

The offense has more questions to answer, especially with Will Smith’s status still up in the air, but a lineup led by Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and a resurgent Mookie Betts is still going to score plenty of runs.

The Dodgers aren’t an unbeatable super team, but they’ve still got a star-studded and highly dangerous roster. If they make it out of the Wild Card round, they’ll have as good a chance as anyone to win it all.

2. Seattle Mariners

Surprised to see the Mariners ranked this highly? So was I, until I realized just how well they’ve been hitting lately. I knew they were good. I knew they got even better at the deadline. But I didn’t understand just how good until I took a closer look at the numbers.

For years, the story of the Mariners has been: “This team would be great if they could actually score some runs.”

Well? They’re scoring.

Cal Raleigh. Julio Rodríguez. Josh Naylor. Jorge Polanco. Those four combined to hit .307 with 24 home runs and a 172 wRC+ in September.

Now, keep that in mind and imagine this offense if Eugenio Suárez and Randy Arozarena can get hot too.

Then, continue keeping that in mind and remember that those hitters are backing up a rotation of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and (hopefully) Bryan Woo. And a bullpen led by Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash. All of whom get to pitch to one of the best framing catchers in the game.

The Seattle Mariners are one of the strongest teams in baseball on both sides of the ball. With a first-round bye, it’s hard not to see this team as the favorite to win the AL pennant.

1. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies finished a game back of the Brewers for the best record in baseball. Their +130 run differential ranks fifth behind the Yankees, Brewers, Cubs, and Dodgers. Yet, it’s hard to imagine a team better built for October.

Even without Zack Wheeler, the Phillies’ rotation will be a strength. Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, and Jesús Luzardo make for a dominant top three. And while Aaron Nola has struggled with inconsistency this season, the Phillies will have enough length in the bullpen (i.e. Walker Buehler and Taijuan Walker) to keep him on a very short leash. Meanwhile, Jhoan Duran, Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering give manager Rob Thomson several choices to turn to in high-leverage spots.

NL batting champ Trea Turner returned from the injured list on Sunday, re-joining Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper at the top of Philadelphia’s potent lineup – a lineup that really has no weak spots.

This team’s ability to pitch or hit its way to victory – an ability that’s been on display consistently throughout the season – is precisely why the Phillies rank number one.