The Padres Need Xander Bogaerts To Bounce Back to All-Star Form
The Padres will hope to get the All-Star version of Bogaerts back in 2025.

It’s surprisingly easy to forget how productive Xander Bogaerts was from 2015-23.
Over nine seasons, the shortstop slashed .297/.362/.468 with 162 home runs, 90 stolen bases, and 38.4 FanGraphs WAR, an average of 4.95 fWAR per 162 games. Only 10 position players and three pitchers produced more fWAR in that span, and I wouldn’t be surprised if every one of those players is someday elected to the Hall of Fame.
In addition to putting up huge numbers, Bogaerts racked up the hardware, making four All-Star appearances and winning five Silver Sluggers. He earned All-MLB First Team honors in 2019.
Simply put, we’re talking about one of the best players in the sport.
Yet, in 2024, Bogaerts was surprisingly mediocre. His walk rate and BABIP plummeted, and as a result, his OBP was below average for the first time since his rookie campaign. His 95 wRC+ was more than 20 points behind his career mark.
To make matters worse, a shoulder injury kept him from qualifying for the batting title for the first time in his career.
Thanks to his strong baserunning and defense, Bogaerts still managed to produce 2.0 fWAR in 111 games. In other words, we’re still talking about a productive player – just not a superstar.
G | PA | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
111 | 463 | 11 | 44 | 13 | .264 | .307 | .381 | 95 | 2.0 |
However, the Padres are paying him like a superstar for the next nine years, so they’re certainly hoping he can get back to that level. Indeed, Bogaerts might be the most pivotal player on their roster.
The Padres Need Xander Bogaerts To Bounce Back
The Padres are in a tough spot. They won 93 games last year but have since lost several of their most important contributors to free agency.
Most notably, they’ll be playing without Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim in 2025. According to FanGraphs, Profar was their most productive bat in 2024, while Kim was their most valuable defender.
A bounceback from Bogaerts alone won’t be enough to replace the 6.9 fWAR San Diego got out of Profar and Kim last season.
However, if the Padres are going to stay competitive without making any major additions this winter, they need him to return to his 2022-23 form.
The best version of Bogaerts can replace Profar’s bat in the middle of the order and Kim’s glove at shortstop. The Bogaerts we saw in 2024 was a mediocre offensive second baseman. However, he has been a Silver Slugger and (arguably) a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop in the not-so-distant past.
Can he be that guy again?
Will Xander Bogaerts Be the Player the Padres Need?

The argument in favor of a Bogaerts bounceback is pretty obvious. Few active major leaguers have the numbers or the accolades that Bogaerts has accumulated throughout his career. He was an All-Star-caliber shortstop as recently as 2023.
We know he can be a far more productive player than he was in 2024 because we watched him be that player for the better part of a decade.
In addition, it’s worth keeping in mind that Bogaerts has been quite durable throughout his career. This past year marked the first season in which he ever missed significant time with injury. In other words, it’s a good bet that Bogaerts will be able to play a full season once again in 2025.
What’s more, there is no reason to worry about any long-lasting effects of his shoulder fracture. He was significantly better upon his return than he was before the injury, producing a 117 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR over his final 64 games. That level of production would put him on pace for 4.5 wins in a full season.
With all that said, the case against a Bogaerts bounceback is pretty clear, too. For one thing, it’s normal for players to decline in their thirties.
Bogaerts saw his power numbers take a step back in 2022 and his walk rate fall in 2023. Both of those trends continued in 2024.
On top of that, his exit velocities have been down for the past three years. From 2018-21, Bogaerts had a .359 xwOBA, a 42.4% hard-hit rate, and a 9.3% barrel rate. All of those were well-above-average numbers.
Over the last three seasons, however, his xwOBA is just .317. His hard-hit rate has fallen to 35.9% and his barrel rate to 6.0%. Good contact skills have kept his xwOBA slightly above league average in that time, but his hard-hit and barrel rates are seriously concerning.
All of those numbers seem to indicate an age-related decline.
And speaking of age, Bogaerts’s defense is another potential cause for concern.
To his credit, Bogaerts has become a much better defender over the last three years than he was at the beginning of his career. He posted 8 OAA and a +7 FRV at shortstop from 2022-23, compared to -39 OAA and a -29 FRV the six years prior.
He also looked good in his first season at second base in 2024, posting 6 OAA and a +4 FRV.
However, Bogaerts will likely slide back to shortstop in place of Kim this season. And simply put, only the very best defenders can remain strong shortstops into their mid-thirties. That’s precisely why players like Bogaerts tend to move to second base.
Could Bogaerts be a capable replacement for Kim at shortstop next season? Absolutely. Kim has a career +8 FRV at shortstop in about 2,500 innings. From 2022-23, Bogaerts produced a +7 FRV at shortstop in roughly 2,500 innings.
Yet, everything we know about aging curves tells us Bogaerts is more likely than not to see his defensive metrics drop in 2025.
Can Bogaerts Outperform His Projections?
By and large, the major projection systems are conservative on Bogaerts. They think he’ll be better than he was this past season, but they’re not convinced he’ll get back to his previous All-Star form.
Using playing time estimates from FanGraphs Depth Charts, the Steamer projections foresee 3.8 WAR for Bogaerts, while ZiPS projects 3.3. ZiPS seems to be giving Bogaerts more credit for his defense, while Steamer is higher on his bat.
Meanwhile, the PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus are less optimistic, putting his 50th percentile projection at 2.3 WARP. Interestingly, however, PECOTA projects him to bounce back to his 2023 form in terms of offense but envisions a steep dropoff in defensive value.
Ultimately, what all these projections tell us is that Bogaerts is difficult to project. His poor 2024 season might have been a blip on the radar of an otherwise Hall of Fame-worthy career. It also could have been the beginning of a quick and steep decline.
Either option is perfectly believable; we’ve seen both play out countless times.
Superstar or fading star? Bogaerts will show us soon enough.