The Orioles Are Getting Right To Work at the Trade Deadline

The Baltimore Orioles have come out swinging this trade deadline.

Before many deadline deals other have come together, the Orioles made two on Friday. With more than 72 hours remaining until the deadline, GM Mike Elias made trades for two pitchers in hopes of strengthening the Orioles’ grip on the AL East.

Stats updated prior to games on July 26.

Orioles Trade No. 1: Austin Hays to Phillies for Seranthony Domínguez and Cristian Pache

There was a lot of speculation with the deadline approaching that the Orioles would move off of a veteran outfielder. Well, they did, and it ends up being Austin Hays, who goes to Philadelphia in exchange for bullpen help.

The Orioles add a reliever in Seranthony Domínguez who has been decent the last couple of seasons.

He had a 3.39 ERA over 101 innings in 2022-23. This season, the ERA has ballooned to 4.75 in 36 innings. Despite the ERA, there are certainly some reasons to like Domínguez in this Orioles bullpen.

The first reason is his 3.25 xERA and 3.48 SIERA. Both of those more predictive statistics indicate that he should be due for some positive regression.

Part of the issue for Domínguez is his proneness to the long ball. Among 187 pitchers with 30 or more innings out of the bullpen this year, he has the 22nd-worst HR/9 rate (1.50).

Another reason to like Dominguez is he has the 34th-best hard-hit rate among that same crop of relievers. At just 32%, he is very resistant to hard contact, which is reflected in his xERA and SIERA.

The flip side of that is his abysmal groundball rate. At just 37.3%, a lot of the contact he gives up is in the air. That results in him also having the 22nd-worst barrel rate due to consistently giving up fly balls despite limiting hard contact.

Dominguez is likely the third/fourth arm out of the bullpen. The ninth and eighth innings still belong to Craig Kimbrel and Yennier Cano. Jacob Webb will probably still get the seventh inning with Domínguez slotting in right behind him.

The other piece of this deal is Cristian Pache. He should slot into a Ryan McKenna role with the Orioles as the fourth outfielder.

Phillies add Austin Hays

Briefly on the Phillies side: They are getting a very solid outfielder in Hays. He plays good defense in left and mashes lefties.

Hays will likely team up with Brandon Marsh to create one of the best corner outfield platoons in baseball. Hays is hitting .328/.394/.500 with a 154 wRC+ against lefties. Marsh is hitting .279/.360/.482 with a 136 wRC+ against righties.

Hays was ultimately phased out of the outfield in Baltimore. This move frees up at-bats for the Orioles’ younger players and gives the Phillies one of the better bench outfielders in baseball.

Orioles Trade No. 2: Zach Eflin to Orioles in Exchange for Three Prospects

This was the bigger of the two moves. With several pitchers on the shelf due to injury, the Orioles bolstered their rotation with one of the better pitchers on the market.

Zach Eflin slots in as the number three in the rotation behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez.

Eflin has been remarkably consistent since 2019. From 2019-23, he tossed 581 innings with a 3.92 ERA. His best season across that stretch was last season when he finished 6th in AL Cy Young voting.

Despite not having the same surface-level success this season, his 4.09 ERA is much higher than the underlying numbers, he has a 3.37 xERA, 3.65 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, and a 3.91 SIERA. Those metrics indicate that he should be due for some positive regression similar to Domínguez.

If there is something that Eflin does well, it is avoiding walks. Orioles fans will be thrilled to learn he has the second-best walk rate among qualified starters this year.

Not only that, but it is worth noting that George Kirby sits in first at 0.95 BB/9, followed by Eflin at 1.06 BB/9, while third is Joe Ryan all the way up at 1.46 BB/9. Kirby and Eflin are in their own class. The Orioles rotation currently ranks 12th in MLB in BB/9 at 2.76.

Finally, the most interesting note on Eflin is his reverse splits. This season, he has proven much more effective against left-handed hitting than right-handed hitting. His home run rate against righties is almost double what it is against lefties.

Moving to Camden Yards should help him curb the home run problem against righties thanks to Mount Walltimore.

When it comes to the postseason, a rotation of Burnes, Rodriguez, and Eflin is much improved and should be able to hold its own come the playoffs.

The Rays Add Prospects

Baltimore sends three prospects to the Rays in return for Eflin: utility-man Mac Horvath (BAL #12), right-handed pitcher Jackson Baumeister (BAL #15), and outfielder Matthew Etzel.

Horvath is a 23-year-old who primarily plays third base but has seen time in all three outfield spots this year in High-A. The hit tool is not spectacular, but he has a little pop and defensive versatility that serve him well.

He is only hitting .232 this season, but nine home runs and 19 doubles give him a 110 wRC+. Tack on 26 stolen bases (only caught once) and you have a very intriguing prospect.

Baumeister is having a very solid season in High-A this year, with a 3.06 ERA in 70.2 innings. He has two plus pitches: his fastball, which sits 93-95, and a big curveball.

With that, Baumeister is still trying to find a better feel for his slider and changeup. Another point of note is that he has been excellent this season at limiting the long ball with just 0.38 HR/9. His biggest weakness is his inability to find the zone (5.48 BB/9). He feels like a guy that the Rays will work their magic with.

Etzel is an unranked outfield prospect. The 22-year-old has impressed at every stop in his brief career. He has climbed to Double-A since being drafted last summer. Everywhere but the Complex League he has posted a strikeout rate under 20% and a walk rate above 10%.

He has a 107 wRC+ in 32 Double-A games and a 138 wRC+ in 51 High-A games. Etzel can go get in center field and loves to move on the bases, as he has 41 steals this season between both levels.

Despite none of these players being top 10 prospects in Baltimore, they are all good players. They are all 2023 draft picks making them relatively young with a lot of room to develop. The Rays did well with this package and likely got three future major leaguers.

The Orioles Are Not Done Yet

For what it’s worth, I think the Orioles are just getting started. There is something to be said about them making moves three days before the deadline. They also have yet to move a top-ten prospect. This, to me, suggests the Orioles are not done.

Players like Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers, and Heston Kjerstad are all fighting for playing time and struggling to stay in Baltimore. There are sure to be teams interested in them.

It has also been reported that Mike Elias has the support of ownership to increase payroll if that is what he sees as best. Adding Eflin (who will make $18MM next season) should be an indication that the Orioles are not afraid of taking on bigger contracts.

Do not be surprised if the Orioles stay active. Pitching is likely still on the table for this team.

My prediction is that they move for another reliever, likely a less expensive option. Potentially a reunion with Shintaro Fujinami, who was recently DFA’d?

Then, I expect them to be players for another starter. Probably not a big fish, but possibly Erick Fedde, Cal Quantrill, or someone else in that range.

Regardless of what happens from here, this is what the Orioles needed to do first. There were weak spots on this team. The back end of the rotation and bullpen have struggled as of late. Elias went out and found players to fill those holes. In what is likely to be a tight divisional race, the Orioles were the first to strike.