Lawrence Butler’s Swing Changes Have Him on the Brink of Stardom

There were few hitters in Major League Baseball who were more productive than the Oakland Athletics’ Lawrence Butler in the second half of the season. His 155 wRC+ from the All-Star Break onward was the 11th best mark in all of baseball, trailing nine All-Stars and Minnesota’s Matt Wallner, who enjoyed his own breakout for the Twins.

As productive of a second half as it was for Butler, it was an equally frustrating first half, resulting in the 24-year-old being optioned back to Triple-A Las Vegas to refine his swing and approach in mid-May.

In his 41 games prior to being optioned, Butler hit just .179/.281/.274 with a 30% strikeout rate, a step back from his debut at the end of the 2023 season where he hit just .211/.240/.341 through his first 42 MLB games.

Talent was never a question for the Atlanta-based product, who boasted an impressive blend of power and speed. However, Butler really struggled with swing and miss at the lower levels, whiffing at a 41% clip in 55 games of short season ball in 2019. He returned from the COVID layoff in 2020 looking much more polished in the box, posting a 126 wRC+ in his age-20 season in 2021, mostly at Low-A with a little bit of High-A, cutting his strikeout rate to a near-palatable 32%.

He built on the solid campaign with a similarly productive full season at High-A Lansing, where he cut the strikeout rate by another tick with a slightly better slash. His exciting trajectory and tools made him a no-brainer for the Arizona Fall League in 2022.

There was an improved feel for the barrel and overall approach for Butler that shined through in Arizona and carried into his 2023 season at the upper minors that resulted in him slashing his strikeout rate by more than 10% prior to his MLB debut, but there was still concerning underlying whiff numbers against secondaries that reared its head at the big league level.

The big league call was somewhat of an aggressive promotion for Butler, given his swing and miss issues at the lower levels and the fact that he had only played 89 games above High-A. Throwing him into the fire may have resulted in his mechanics actually regressing, as he looked like he was hitting in fight-or-flight mode at times. As his mechanics got further away from him, even fastballs became a challenge, hitting just .180 against them in the 83 MLB games between the end of 2023 and beginning of 2024.

Even through the growing pains, Butler mashed heaters at every stop, slashing .306/.397/.518 against fastballs since the start of the 2021 season, even boasting an OPS right around .900 against velocity 93 MPH and above. In his first 83 MLB games, velocity surprisingly overwhelmed Butler despite his plus bat speed and track record, making it clear the issue was mechanical.

The Swing Changes

When looking at the older open-side video, Butler’s challenges to control his lower half stand out, particularly his premature forward move. Even comparing the video of his big league stint to what we saw in Double-A, it seemed like his swing mechanics regressed as he dealt with the quality of MLB stuff.

The two clips below are both from early in the 2024 season. Different pitch types, but the same result mechanically as he pushes out of his back side almost as soon as he loads into it. When the body pushes so far forward before the barrel launches, it will affect the bat path, generally entering the zone at a shallower angle with less barrel control.

You can see the bat drag below the elevated fastball in the left video, and if you look closely at the point of contact on the right, you can see the bat flailing in Butler’s hands after contact because of how “armsy” the swing becomes when the body is taken out of the equation.

It’s a two-fold issue, because the barrel drag and over-striding forward will make velocity feel like it’s getting on a hitter more quickly, all while making it nearly impossible to get on plane with a fastball at the top of the zone. This will make a hitter feel like he needs to get things going earlier.

Starting earlier with the tendency to over-stride and a path that is more shallow through the zone is generally a recipe for disaster against secondaries as well, especially pitches that tunnel well with a heater like a slider or changeup.

Right around the start of July, I was able to see a shift in the way Butler was moving in the box. The video features two changeups at similar speeds and locations. In the old swing on the left, Butler’s already aggressively on his front foot before he even launches the barrel. He loads into his back quad then pushes right out of it as soon as he gets there.

The angle of his back leg as he strides is particularly telling. Butler’s new and improved swing has his back leg much more vertical as he inevitably gains some ground with his stride. When the back leg is angled more diagonally as he strides, there’s nowhere for his weight to go but forward, which you can see in the give of his front knee at foot-strike.

If you were wondering, the video on the right is a 111 MPH homer. Unsurprisingly, the results statistically against changeups and sliders have been night-and-day, not only from a production standpoint but in his swing decisions as well. He is giving himself more time to decide while making it easier to not commit to swinging as he controls his body more effectively.

A 13% leap in contact rate paired with a five MPH jump in average exit velocity against two pitch types that account for more than a third of what is thrown at him will surely help Butler’s bottom line.

Out of the 211 changeups and sliders Butler saw in the late March to late June sample, Butler only compiled three extra base hits. In the 363-pitch sample of the same offerings from July through the end of this season, Butler launched six homers and 11 extra base hits.

Ready for Velocity

Where the shift is even more jarring is Butler’s ability to hit velocity. Minimizing barrel drag and getting on plane earlier not only allows him to be more efficient to the ball, but also to catch it deeper. The two swings highlighted below on fastballs at the top right quadrant of the zone demonstrate this well.

In addition to doing a better job of keeping his weight back throughout his pre-swing moves, he is more primed for velocity by starting his load earlier with a leg kick that does not reach as high. The duality of being ready earlier while also featuring a swing path that allows for Butler to catch the ball deeper gives him a significantly wider margin for contact. He is in a better position to turn stuff around to the pull side, but can also still shoot a fastball that gets on him quicker than he anticipated, much like the high induced vertical break fastball from Nick Pivetta above.

The barrel living in the zone longer without his body disrupting the bat path has also allowed Butler to maintain his direction much more effectively. It is still a work in progress for the 24-year-old to consistently pull fastballs in the air, but he has flashed the ability to turn around velocity much more effectively and has been able to back spin balls to straight away center that were previously more likely to be sliced or rolled over.

Through his first 150 plate appearances of the season, Butler did not pull a fastball to the right of centerfield in the air for a hit. In his 292 subsequent at bats since the start of July, he has launched five fastballs for homers to the right of center, three of which were left-on-left.

The Toe-Tap Approach

Another interesting wrinkle in the evolution of Butler is the development of his toe-tap move, which he has deployed in both left-on-left and two strike situations since 2022. Though it’s a different move, Butler has had similar success in making the necessary tweaks to get into his back hip and stay there.

Starting wider when he goes to the toe tap likely in an effort to simplify his pre-swing moves, Butler still ran into the same challenges in regards to weight shift, which you can see in the video of two elevated fastballs below. Some key things to look at in the old swing are how much wider and crouched he is when his front foot plants, the push forward from his back knee before the barrel launches, how much more his head moves through his load and the angle of the bat right as he tries to get on plane with the high pitch.

Butler did not have the opportunity to see a ton of left-handed pitching in his MLB career prior to July’s breakout, but in the 42 plate appearances he had against same-handed pitchers up to that point, he was just 5-for-40 (.125) with 15 strikeouts and one extra base hit. Of the 25 balls he put into play, 18 were ground balls.

Since the start of July, Butler has registered 69 plate appearances against southpaws and has hit .358 with five home runs, four doubles and just 14 strikeouts. Butler’s refined toe tap has similarly impacted his ability to hit with two strikes, hitting .225 with a .691 OPS through the same span. For reference, the average MLB hitter posted a batting average of .173 with a .520 OPS when down to their last strike this season. Even when Butler turned in a strikeout rate below 20% between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023, he hit just .215 with an OPS of .610 with two strikes.

What to Expect Moving Forward

The sample sizes may not be the largest, but whenever there is an obvious and tangible mechanical adjustment that coincides with a massive leap in production and the underlying batted ball data to back it all up, it’s easy to feel confident in the trajectory that Butler now appears to have himself on.

In order to achieve his power ceiling, he will likely need to continue to build on his ability to pull fastballs in the air, as even with a more efficient swing, his long levers can make it difficult to catch heaters at the optimal contact point for slug.

That said, he is still far more productive against fastballs, with the ability to leave the yard with ease dead central and to the back side thanks to his plus exit velocities and carry he generates. Where Butler really separates himself is his slug against secondaries, boasting an OPS of 1.010 with 11 home runs against non-fastballs from July 2nd onward.

The trend against left-handed pitching is an extremely exciting development to watch as well, now clearly projecting like an every day bat. Even if Butler continues to be challenged with pulling fastballs, his progress across the board makes him a 30 home run threat moving forward with a strikeout rate that can now hover in the low 20% range rather than the low 30s.

As far as in-season adjustments go for hitters, Butler’s shift is as impressive as they come. The first half of the season looked like the 24-year-old had taken a full step backwards from 2023. Even in his 27 Pacific Coast League games before being recalled, he was only hovering around a 94 wRC+. The mechanical changes seemed to come a dozen or so games into his return to the A’s lineup, and from that point on, he was one of the most productive hitters in the sport.

To be able to make such substantive mechanical changes in the throws of the season is a testament to Butler’s feel for the game and willingness to adjust. The latest offensive success story for the A’s, Butler looks like he has himself in position to be a fixture in their lineup through their multiple unnecessary moves.