Look Away Purists: Kyle Schwarber Is on Pace To Make the Hall of Fame
While Kyle Schwarber is not your prototypical Hall of Fame candidate, his path to 500 career home runs could lead him to Cooperstown.
Editor’s Note: This article dives into real-time stats and Hall of Fame projections for Kyle Schwarber. It also includes affiliate links to official MLB Shop gear. If you buy through these links, we may earn a small commission—at no extra cost to you.
Kyle Schwarber has had a powerful 11-year start to his MLB career.
The 32-year-old is not your average player who’s on pace for the Hall of Fame: He’s never hit over .266 in a season, averages 192 strikeouts per season, and he’s only played defensively 12 times in the last two seasons (99 innings— all in left field).
And yet… he’s still very much in consideration for Cooperstown.
Through August 18 (2025), Schwarber leads all of Major League Baseball with 101 RBIs, ranks second in home runs (43), and sits fifth in OPS at .948 (all while batting just .248).
He’s a baseball purist’s nightmare: low batting average, no defense, tons of strikeouts, and an unapologetic all-or-nothing approach at the plate.
But, Schwarber is playing during an era where slug matters — and the 2016 World Series champ is slugging into historic territory, no matter how it looks getting there.
In an era where power and on-base skills are king, Schwarber’s advanced metrics make a compelling Hall of Fame case—despite a .230-something career batting average, a glove made of stone, and below-average leadoff-hitter speed.
He ranks among the top 1% of MLB hitters in slugging, exit velocity, and leads all of MLB in hard-hit rate, proving that baseball purists might have to adjust their criteria for what’s considered elite in contemporary baseball.
Now, that’s not to say that while Schwarber’s swing-for-the-fences approach might make the traditionalist wince, his sheer power and advanced metrics are building a career case that purists may hate to love.
How Many Home Runs Is Kyle Schwarber on Pace to Hit in His Career?
As of August 18 (2025), Kyle Schwarber has 327 career home runs, and his 162-game average is 42 (high: 47, 2023; low: 11, 2020) over his 11-year career.
Let’s also note that the 32-year-old averages 155 games and 673 plate appearances (569 at-bats) per season.
We’ve broken down his projections into moderate, current pace, and extreme tiers. Moderate would assume he slows his season HR average and plays for five more seasons (until age 37). His current pace has him playing for five more seasons. Extreme has him play for seven more seasons.
| Projection | HRs/Season | Years Remaining | Projected HRs | Career Total | Hall of Fame Range (for context) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moderate | 30 | 5 | 135 – 150 | ~465 | Chipper Jones (468) to Lou Gehrig (493) |
| Current Pace | 42 | 5 | 210 | ~535 | Mickey Mantle (536) to Manny Ramirez (555) |
| Extreme (but Realistic) | 35 | 7 | 245 | ~575 | Top 20 all-time territory: Rafael Palmeiro (569) to Mark McGwire (583) |
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Comparing Schwarber: Past Sluggers With Similar Profiles
These three sluggers share a similar slugger DNA with Schwarber—explosive offense, swing-or-miss chops, and limited glove value.
Mark McGwire
- Career Stats: 583 HR, 1,414 RBIs, .588 SLG, .262 AVG
- Not known for great contact or range, McGwire epitomized the high-strikeout, high-impact slugger.
Reggie Jackson (Hall of Famer)
- Career Stats: 563 HR, 1,702 RBIs, .471 SLG, .262 AVG
- Known as “Mr. October” for his postseason power, Jackson struck out plenty and didn’t offer much with the glove—but his postseason lore and clutch moments cemented his Hall status.
Frank Thomas (Hall of Famer)
- Career Stats: 521 HR, 1,704 RBIs, .555 SLG, .301 AVG
- A 19-year slugging first baseman with formidable power and high walk totals. Strikeouts were part of his game, and he wasn’t renowned for range—but his consistency and on-base skills made him unfairly great.
So… Is Schwarber Really on a Hall of Fame Path?
My hunch? Schwarber ends up somewhere in the Frank Thomas (521) to David Ortiz (541) home run range. The 2014 4th overall pick plays six more seasons, clears 1,000 RBIs, and maybe — just maybe — adds another World Series ring to his resume.
Will he ever win a batting title? Nope. A Gold Glove? Absolutely not. But…
- He might be the hardest-hitting leadoff hitter baseball has ever seen.
- He’s on pace to become one of just a dozen players in history with 500+ HRs and 1,000+ walks.
- He could easily eclipse the 500-career home run mark (and debatably push 600).
Kyle Schwarber is a slugger born in the right era. If we’re building a new wing of Cooperstown dedicated to baseball’s three-true-outcome heroes, Schwarber’s bust might be the one holding the door open.
And if you’re a purist wincing at the idea?
Look away. Sorry.
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