Top 25 2023–24 MLB Free Agents With Contract and Team Predictions

Ranking the top 25 players available in free agency this offseason, with predictions on the contract and landing spots for each free agent.

OAKLAND, CA - SEPTEMBER 02: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels prepares to bat during the game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Oakland Athletics at RingCentral Coliseum on Saturday, September 2, 2023 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Loren Elliott/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Welcome to Just Baseball’s 2023-24 top 25 free agents countdown, featuring contract and team predictions for each player. Before we get to the list, here are a few qualifiers.

  • The gap between the 20th best free agent and 35th in this year’s may not be that large. So while RHP Jack Flaherty, center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, RHP Michael Lorenzen, catcher/DH Mitch Garver and IF/OF Whit Merrifield didn’t crack out top 25, we still expect them to do well in free agency.
  • Just because a specific team isn’t projected as a landing spot on this list doesn’t mean they won’t ultimately end up signing one or more of these players. Signing lesser free agents or using the trade market also exists as a possibility.
  • The team predictions are fun, and ultimately are what draw the most eyeballs. However, they are kind of like a Jenga tower. Once you get one team prediction wrong, it has a domino effect on others. Judge this list based on the accuracy of the contract predictions, not the teams (unless a bunch of the teams end up correct).

With less than a month until the MLB Winter Meetings in Nashville, here are our top 25 free agents, complete with contract and team predictions.

25. RHP Jordan Hicks

2023 Stats: 12 saves in 15 attempts, 3.29 ERA, 3.23 FIP and 1.1 WAR in 65 games

Age in 2024: 27

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Contract Prediction: Three years, $33 million

Team Prediction: Houston Astros

If you can throw 100 mph, you’re always going to have teams interested in your services.

Hicks looks particularly appealing as a free agent when there’s a massive drop-off in the reliever market after Josh Hader — David Robertson and Craig Kimbrel both had disastrous finishes to the 2023 season, and Liam Hendriks may miss the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August.

It feels like Hicks has been around for a while, but he’s still only 27 and has regained other-worldly velocity since under going Tommy John surgery himself in June of 2019.

After splitting the 2023 season with the St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays, Hicks should be in line for a lucrative multi-year deal.

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24. RHP Seth Lugo

2023 Stats: 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA, 3.83 FIP and a 2.8 WAR across 146 1/3 innings pitched

Age in 2024: 34

Contract Prediction: Two years, $28 million, with $15 million club option for 2026

Team Prediction: Detroit Tigers

In a weak relief market, it will be interesting to see if there are teams interested in Lugo more as a reliever than starting pitcher. But while Lugo was an effective reliever over parts of seven seasons with the New York Mets, he was very solid as a starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres in 2023 and stands to make more money over the long run if he remains a starter.

You do always worry about injuries the year after a giant innings jump — Lugo logged 146 1/3 innings as a starter in 2023 after pitching 65 innings as a reliever in 2022 — but multiple teams looking for a strong No. 4 starter will be willing to take that risk with Lugo.

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23. RHP Lucas Giolito

2023 Stats: 8-15 with a 4.88 ERA, 5.27 FIP and 1.0 WAR across 184 1/3 innings pitched

Age in 2024: 29

Contract Prediction: Two years, $38 million with player opt-out available after 2024

Team Prediction: Atlanta Braves

It was hard to decide what to do with Giolito, who allowed a staggering 41 home runs in a season that saw him pitch for the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians.

Between 2019 and 2021, Giolito was one of the better pitchers in baseball, peaking with a sixth place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2019. However, over the last two seasons, Giolito has a 4.89 ERA and 4.70 FIP in 63 starts.

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He’s still only 29 and has five seasons on his resume where he’s thrown 160 or more innings. But if you’re bad over those innings, it only carries so much value.

There’s a chance that Giolito turns out to be the steal of the offseason, but it feels pretty alarming that three different clubs couldn’t figure out how to alleviate his problems this past season.

22. DH/IF Justin Turner

2023 Stats: .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs, 96 RBIs, 51 walks, .800 OPS and a 1.2 WAR

Age in 2024: 39

Contract Prediction: One year, $12 million

Team Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

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Justin Turner put together a strong season for the Boston Red Sox in 2023. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

Turner could hit a wall at any point, but he was still a valuable offensive piece for the Boston Red Sox in his age-38 season, opting out of his $13.4 million option for 2023 and triggering a $6.7 million buyout before returning to free agency. Turner saw time at DH, first base, second base and third base in 2023, pretty remarkable flexibility for someone this late in their career.

When you factor in that Turner is one of the most accomplished postseason players of this era, he shouldn’t have any problem earning more than $13.4 million in 2024 when you add it to the $6.7 million he’s already guaranteed via the buyout.

21. SS/2B Tim Anderson

2023 Stats: .245/.286/.296 with one home run, 25 RBIs, 26 walks, .582 OPS and a -0.5 WAR

Age in 2024: 31

Contract Prediction: One year, $13 million

Team Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

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Anderson had a disastrous contract year, which led to the White Sox declining his $14 million club option for 2024 and instead deciding to pay him a $1 million buyout. The reality is that he probably needed a change of scenery anyway.

We’re not saying Anderson is going to be an MVP finalist, but the Oakland A’s declined to even extend a qualifying offer to Marcus Semien after a disappointing 2020 season, and he responded with a career-year for the Toronto Blue Jays on a pillow contract in 2021, earning him a seven-year/$175 million deal with the Texas Rangers the next offseason.

Again, perhaps that’s an extreme example. But Anderson is a lifelong shortstop that is probably best-suited to play second base at this stage of his career, and likely will be reinvigorated by joining a new team. This is someone who hit .318 with an .820 OPS between 2019 and 2022 — he didn’t just forget how to play.

20. RHP Michael Wacha

2023 Stats: 14-4 with a 3.22 ERA, 3.89 FIP and a 2.6 WAR across 134 1/3 innings pitched

Age in 2024: 32

Contract Prediction: Two years, $28 million

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Team Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Wacha has had a winding journey since winning the NLCS MVP with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2013, but over the last two years, the former first-round pick has revived his career.

In stints with the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres, Wacha has gone 25-6 with a 3.27 ERA and 4.01 FIP across 261 2/3 innings pitched. He may not be someone that can be counted on to make 30 starts a season, but for a team looking to bolster their rotation depth, Wacha could be a nice addition on a multi-year pact.

19. OF Jung-Hoo Lee

2023 Stats (in NPB): .318/.406/.455 with six home runs, 45 RBIs, 49 walks and an .860 OPS

Age in 2024: 25

Contract Prediction: Five years, $60 million

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Team Prediction: New York Yankees

Lee is one of the biggest wild cards in this year’s free-agent class. In seven seasons playing in the Korean Baseball Organization, Lee has slashed .340/.407/.491 with an .898 OPS. He was limited to 86 games in 2023, but over 142 contests in 2022 he homered 23 times and drove in 113 runs.

Additionally, Lee can play all three outfield positions, with’s Mark Feinsand noting that he “is considered to be an above-average defender in center field.”

For a team that views Lee as a full-time center fielder, he would be an extremely appealing free agent given that he’s demonstrated an ability to consistently get on base and is only 25 years old.

18. LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

2023 Stats: .261/.309/.463 with 24 home runs, 82 RBIs, 33 walks, .772 OPS and a 2.1 WAR

Age in 2024: 30

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Contract Prediction: Three years, $48 million

Team Prediction: Miami Marlins

After spending the first five years of his career with the Toronto Blue Jays, Gurriel was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks prior to the 2023 season.

Gurriel responded to the trade by making his first All-Star Game appearance, and helping the Snakes to reach the World Series for the first time in a generation. Gurriel isn’t going to walk a ton, but he also isn’t someone that strikes out at a high clip.

While he homered 24 times and drove in 82 runs for the Diamondbacks in 2023, perhaps the most impressive part about his season was posting 14 defensive runs saved and one out above average in left field, despite playing his home games in the treacherous outfield at Chase Field.

17. OF/DH Jorge Soler

2023 Stats: .250/.341/.512 with 36 home runs, 75 RBIs, 66 walks, .853 OPS and a 1.9 WAR

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Age in 2024: 32

Contract Prediction: Three years, $50 million

Team Prediction: Seattle Mariners

Soler struggled mightily in the first year of a three-year, $36 million deal with the Miami Marlins, posting just a .695 OPS in just 72 games. However, he rebounded nicely in 2023, homering 36 times and posting an .853 OPS in 137 games for a Marlins team that reached the postseason.

He opted out of the final year of the deal, which would have paid him $9 million. The former World Series MVP has prodigious power, and is an ideal fit for a team that needs someone to split time between corner outfield and DH.

16. OF/DH Teoscar Hernández

2023 Stats: .258/.305/.435 with 26 home runs, 93 RBIs, 38 walks, .741 OPS and a 1.8 WAR

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Age in 2024: 31

Contract Prediction: Three years,$60 million, with $20 million club option for 2027

Team Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

Teoscar Hernandez is a free agent after spending the 2023 season with the Seattle Mariners. (Alika Jenner/Getty Images)

Hernández had the unfortunate fate of getting traded by the Blue Jays to the Seattle Mariners in his contract year, forcing him to play 81 games at T-Mobile Park, which Statscast says has been the least-friendly park for hitters over the last three seasons. His 211 strikeouts in 2023 feel like an outlier, considering he had never struck out more than 163 times prior to joining the Mariners.

Teams can fairly assume that he’ll hit 25-30 home runs, while driving in close to 90 runs per season in a more hitter-friendly environment. His value would increase quite a bit if he walked more, but as is, there still should be interest from teams looking for a corner outfielder/DH with some thump.

15. 3B/1B Jeimer Candelario

2023 Stats: .251/.336/.471 with 22 home runs, 70 RBIs, 53 walks, .807 OPS and a 3.3 WAR

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Age in 2024: 30

Contract Prediction: Three years, $50 million

Team Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

Candelario proved to be one of the best offseason signings last winter, as the Washington Nationals landed him by guaranteeing just $5 million following his non-tender by the Detroit Tigers. Candelario ended up splitting the season with the Nationals and Chicago Cubs, ultimately finishing in a tie for sixth in the sport with 39 doubles.

He would be the perfect fit for a team in need of corner infield help this offseason, especially one with a spacious outfield whose gaps he could wear out with doubles.

Actual Deal: Three years, $45 million with Cincinnati Reds

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14. 1B/DH Rhys Hoskins

2022 Stats (missed all of 2023): .246/.332/.462 with 30 home runs, 79 RBIs, 72 walks, .794 OPS and a 2.3 WAR

Age in 2024: 31

Contract Prediction: Two years, $38 million, with opt-out available after 2024

Team Prediction: Cleveland Guardians

Hoskins may be higher on this list than other countdowns, and that’s OK. Yes, he missed the entirety of the 2023 season with a torn left ACL suffered late in Spring Training, but he came close to returning late in the postseason, so there’s no reason to believe he won’t be ready to go for Opening Day 2024. He also didn’t get a qualifying offer, which means any team that signs him won’t have to surrender draft compensation.

Over the last three full seasons Hoskins has had (2019, 2021 and 2022), he’s averaged 29 home runs, 78 RBIs and 78 walks. He’s one of the most respected clubhouse presences in the sport, with Bryce Harper referring to him as “the captain” of the Philadelphia Phillies during the team’s 2022 run to the World Series. Hoskins has never been a particularly effective fielder — he has -11 career outs above average at first base — and coming off of a major knee injury, so he may benefit from getting occasional at-bats at DH.

But Hoskins can hit pretty much anywhere in the lineup, and if it’s not a return to the Phillies, some team will get a very nice addition in 2024.

13. RHP Marcus Stroman

2023 Stats: 10-9 with a 3.95 ERA, 3.58 FIP and a 2.7 WAR across 136 2/3 innings pitched

Age in 2024: 33

Contract Prediction: Two years, $40 million with opt-out after 2024

Team Prediction: Minnesota Twins

Stroman was an All-Star for the second time in his career in 2023, going 9-6 with a 2.96 ERA in the first half of the season. However, after the midsummer classic, he went 1-3 with an 8.63 ERA in eight games — six of which were starts — with a rib cage injury derailing his second half.

Stroman opted out of the $21 million he was due in the final year of a three-year contract with the Cubs nonetheless. He’ll likely get more total money in free agency, but may have to take a pay-cut in 2024. Stroman is a quality starting pitcher, but failed to reach 140 innings in either of his seasons with the Cubs. That may leave him disappointed in his market, and potentially forced to accept a contract that allows him to return to free agency next offseason if he’s able to stay healthy in 2024.

12. LHP Shōta Imanaga

2023 Stats (in NPB): 7-5 with a 2.66 ERA across 159 innings pitched

Age in 2024: 30

Contract Prediction: Five years, $80 million

Team Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

Across eight seasons with the Yokohama Bay Stars in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Imanaga went 64-50 with a 3.18 ERA and 13 complete games across over 1,000 innings pitched.

Imanaga was part of the legion of arms that helped Team Japan win the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and with a slew of National League teams in need of quality starting pitching, he could very well top the five-year, $75 million deal that his countryman Kodai Senga received from the New York Mets last offseason.

11. Eduardo Rodríguez

2023 Stats: 13-9 with a 3.30 ERA, 3.66 FIP and 3.0 WAR across 152 2/3 innings pitched

Age in 2024: 31

Contract Prediction: Four years, $80 million

Team Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals

Rodríguez’s first season with the Detroit Tigers was a disappointment, as stints on both the injured and restricted lists limited him to just 17 starts. However, he bounced back nicely in his second season with the Tigers, going 13-9 with a 3.30 ERA and 3.66 FIP across 152 2/3 innings pitched.

History tells us Rodríguez is probably more likely to make 25 starts per year than 33, and he did use his no-trade clause to block a July trade that would have sent him to the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, Rodríguez still opted out of the final three years and $49 million on the original five-year deal he signed with the Tigers, so the lefty clearly expects to have his fair share of suitors.

Actual Deal: Four years, $80 Million with Arizona Diamondbacks with $20 million vesting option for 2028

10. DH/OF J.D. Martinez

2023 Stats: .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs, 103 RBIs, 34 walks, .893 OPS and a 2.2 WAR

Age in 2024: 36

Contract Prediction: Two years, $36 million, with $20 million club option for 2026

Team Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

Reports of Martinez’s demise were greatly exaggerated, as he posted a 49% hard-hit rate in 2023, the highest total since the career-year he had in 2017, a campaign split with the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks.

After signing a prove-it deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers last offseason for $10 million, he proved to still be a very effective DH, homering 33 times with 103 RBIs and an .893 OPS. Martinez is 36, so he may be limited in terms of contractual length, but should draw interest from a variety of teams looking for middle-of-the-order lineup protection.

9. Sonny Gray

2023 Stats: 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA, 2.83 FIP and a 5.3 WAR across 184 innings pitched

Age in 2024: 34

Contract Prediction: Three years, $69 million

Team Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals

Sonny Gray is a free agent after an excellent season for the Minnesota Twins. (David Berding/Getty Images)

Gray’s tenure with the New York Yankees didn’t go well, but in five years since leaving the Bronx, he’s 10th among all starting pitchers in WAR (16.3) and has been an All-Star twice (2019 and 2023). Gray recently turned 34, and is probably a better fit for a smaller market, given that he’s had his success pitching in Oakland, Cincinnati and Minnesota. But he should have plenty of teams interested in his services for multiple years.

Actual Deal: Three Years, $72 Million with St. Louis Cardinals

8. 3B Matt Chapman

2023 Stats: .240/.330/.424 with 17 home runs, 54 RBIs, 62 walks, .755 OPS and a 3.5 WAR

Age in 2024: 31

Contract Prediction: Six years, $138 million

Team Prediction: Chicago Cubs

Chapman got off to a scalding-hot start at the plate in his contract year, hitting .384 with 21 RBIs in 27 games between March and April. But he came crashing back down to Earth, hitting just .205 with a .663 OPS after the All-Star Break.

The two-time Platinum Glove Award winner put together an excellent season defensively for the Toronto Blue Jays, finishing the season with 12 defensive runs saved and four outs above average. Teams will be interested in the strong fielding and power of Chapman, but any thought early in his career that he could be on the level of Nolan Arenado as an overall player has proven to be misguided.

7. LHP Jordan Montgomery

2023 Stats: 10-11 with a 3.20 ERA, 3.56 FIP and a 4.3 WAR across 188 2/3 innings pitched

Age in 2024: 31

Contract Prediction: Six years, $144 million

Team Prediction: Texas Rangers

Montgomery is hitting the free-agent market at the perfect time, having helped the Texas Rangers to win their first World Series title after a midseason trade from the St. Louis Cardinals. He posted a 3.20 ERA in 32 regular season starts, and then finished with a 2.90 ERA across 31 postseason innings.

The left-hander had Tommy John surgery back in 2018 while with the New York Yankees, but has rebounded nicely, logging 367 innings over the last two regular seasons. The southpaw should secure a lucrative deal on the open market, especially since teams won’t have to surrender draft compensation to sign him because he wasn’t eligible for the qualifying offer.

6. LHP Josh Hader

2023 Stats: 1.28 ERA and 2.69 FIP over 61 games; 33-for-38 on save attempts

Age in 2024: 30

Contract Prediction: Five years, $105 million

Team Prediction: Texas Rangers

Hader’s career had a hiccup in the Summer of 2022, but in seven seasons spent with the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres, he’s put himself on a Hall of Fame trajectory. Hader was an All-Star on a disappointing Padres team this past season, posting a minuscule 1.28 ERA in 61 games, while converting on nearly 87% of his save attempts.

Late-season collapses from veterans Craig Kimbrel and David Robertson should only help the market for Hader, who will likely be looking to top the five-year, $102 million deal that Edwin Díaz received from the New York Mets last offseason.

5. OF/1B Cody Bellinger

2023 Stats: .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs, 97 RBIs, 40 walks, .881 OPS and a 4.1 WAR

Age in 2024: 28

Contract Prediction: Eight years, $200 million

Team Prediction: San Francisco Giants

Cody Bellinger (left) is a free agent after a bounce-back season with the Chicago Cubs. (Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

There’s a lot to like about about Bellinger, but he isn’t for the risk-averse. Bellinger was non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers after he hit .203 with a .648 OPS between 2020 and 2022.

He rebounded nicely with the Chicago Cubs in 2023, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs, 97 RBIs and an .881 OPS. But beyond the three poor seasons already on his resume, there are some signs Bellinger could regress from the season he had in Chicago.

He finished this past season with a .319 batting average on balls in play, well above his career average of .285. And while he’s probably never going to match his NL MVP campaign from 2019, his difference in hard-hit percentage between the two campaigns — 49.2% in 2019; 29.2% in 2023 — is hard to not at least be a little concerned by.

Bellinger’s positional flexibility is extremely valuable, and he’s comfortably on the right side of 30. But there is evidence of how ugly things can get when he’s not right, and you do wonder how his back will age given the violent nature of his swing.

4. LHP Blake Snell

2023 Stats: 14-9 with a 2.25 ERA, 3.44 FIP and a 4.1 WAR across 180 innings pitched

Age in 2024: 31

Contract Prediction: Six years, $185 million

Team Prediction: Boston Red Sox

On one hand, Snell is about to become one of seven pitchers in MLB history to win Cy Young Awards in both leagues, so it’s impossible not to give him credit. On the other hand, Snell has pitched 180 innings just twice in his career, never sniffing 200. So this isn’t as though a workhorse like Roy Halladay or Max Scherzer is becoming a free agent.

Snell is a very good pitcher, but one that only pitched more than six innings in a start three times for the San Diego Padres in 2023. The contrast between him and Nola will be a fun one to watch on this year’s free-agent market.

3. RHP Aaron Nola

2023 Stats: 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA, 4.03 FIP and 3.9 WAR across 193 2/3 innings pitched

Age in 2024: 31

Contract Prediction: Six years, $190 million

Team Prediction: Chicago Cubs

Nola disappointed in a contract year, posting a 4.49 ERA and allowing a career-high 32 home runs. With that said, he was largely excellent in the postseason, posting a 2.35 ERA in four starts.

Even in a down year, Nola still logged 193 2/3 innings pitched, and since the start of 2018, only Gerrit Cole has pitched more frames than Nola’s 1,065 1/3. On three occasions, Nola has finished in the top seven in NL Cy Young Award voting, and he’s also pitched 190 or more innings four times.

Nola really never misses time, and while you wonder if he’ll be able to stay as healthy as he has in his career, his steadiness will draw a ton of interest. He has said he hopes to remain with the Phillies — who drafted him in the first round of the 2014 MLB Draft — but the two sides weren’t able to reach a long-term deal when they had discussions back in Spring Training. If a team gives Nola an attainable seventh-year vesting option, that might be enough to win the bidding for his services.

Actual Deal: Seven years, $172 million with Philadelphia Phillies

2. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto

2023 Stats (in NPB): 17-6 with a 1.16 ERA across 171 innings pitched

Age in 2024: 25

Contract Prediction: Eight years, $240 million

Team Prediction: New York Mets

In a pitching market where there are legitimate concerns about both Aaron Nola and Blake Snell — not to mention Julio Urías’ second domestic violence arrest taking him out of the picture altogether — Yamamoto may be the best full-time pitcher available.

Over seven seasons pitching for the Orix Buffaloes in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Yamamoto went 70-29 with a 1.82 ERA. He’s logged at least 171 innings in each of his last three campaigns in Japan, and recently tossed a 138-pitch complete game in Game 6 of the Japan Series.

Yamamoto is more than ready for both the workload and expectations that will come with signing a major deal with an MLB team. And given that he only turned 25 in August, there will be quite a few teams lined up with hopes that he could anchor their rotation for the better part of the next decade.

1. DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani

2023 Offensive Stats: .304/.412/.654 with 44 home runs, 95 RBIs, 91 walks, 1.066 OPS and a 6.6 WAR

2023 Pitching Stats: 10-5 with a 3.14 ERA, 4.00 FIP and a 2.4 WAR across 132 innings pitched

Age in 2024: 29

Contract Prediction: 13 years, $572 million

Team Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

Shohei Ohtani is a free agent after years of anticipation. (Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Perhaps Barry Bonds’ offensive dominance in the early 2000s was so strong that you could come up with a greater three-season stretch than what Ohtani has had the last trio of seasons, but the examples of players with comparable runs can likely be counted on one hand, and probably not with all five fingers.

Ohtani is set to win his second AL MVP in three years, and sandwiched in between those two campaigns is a runner-up finish for the honor that also saw him post a top-five finish in AL Cy Young Award voting.

If not for the elbow surgery that will cost Ohtani a chance to pitch in 2024 and raises questions about the long-term viability of being a two-way player, he may well have topped over $600 million. As is, he’s one of the sport’s elite hitters, and there’s reason to think he’ll be an excellent pitcher for at least the front half of this contract.

Additionally, his presence increases the valuation of your organization and the international brand in a way that’s perhaps only comparable to Lionel Messi and LeBron James.

The Dodgers — hell-bent on making sure they land Ohtani over other West Coast teams like the San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners and incumbent Los Angeles Angels — will go to a 13th year with a new average annual value record of $44 million to secure his services.

Actual Deal: 10 years, $700 million with Los Angeles Dodgers (deal reportedly includes deferrals, with specifics yet to be reported)