Who’s the Better Free Agent: Harrison Bader or Trent Grisham?
Outfielders Trent Grisham and Harrison Bader have a lot in common. Which of the two is the better free agent ahead of the 2026 season?
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With the Los Angeles Dodgers securing their second consecutive World Series title on Saturday night, the 2025 MLB season has officially been brought to a close, and free agency is now upon us.
While headlines will undoubtedly follow the top names on the market — including Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, Kyle Schwarber, Bo Bichette, and Cody Bellinger — as they look for new homes ahead of 2026, many teams will quickly find themselves priced out of those conversations and looking for more cost-effective alternatives.
After the marquee players sign their mega-deals, the market for these second-tier players will only get more competitive, as big teams that miss out on their first picks and need to find the next-best options to fill holes in their rosters.
Two players that fall into that category of mid-range free agents are Trent Grisham and Harrison Bader, who turned down his end of the mutual option on his contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Both Grisham and Bader have a lot in common — they’re both defense-forward center fielders coming off career-best seasons at the plate — and are likely to go head-to-head on the market, so which of the two is the better free agent ahead of the 2026 season?
Can Harrison Bader Repeat His Career-Best Stats?
Having signed a one-year deal with the Minnesota Twins in February, Bader started this season by hitting 258/.339/.439 with 12 home runs, 38 RBI, and 10 stolen bases across 307 plate appearances (96 games) for Minnesota. Once he was sent to the Philadelphia Phillies at the trade deadline, his hot streak only got hotter, with the 31-year-old hitting .305/.361/.463 with 5 home runs over 194 PA (50 games).
Between the Twins and Phillies, Bader finished 2025 with career-best stats in batting average (.277), on-base percentage (.347), slugging (.449), home runs (17), RBI (54), and doubles (24). His 501 PA (146 games) also marked the most he’s ever managed in a season, beating his previous best of 437 PA in 2024.
Still, Bader’s batting stats throughout his career have been shaky, implying that his strong 2025 campaign may be more of a fluke than a new standard.
After nine seasons in the majors, Bader is a career .247 hitter, never having managed more than 17 home runs in a season. While his OPS+ was an impressive 117 in 2025, it was just 86 in 2024 and 69 in 2023, reflecting the inconsistency that has plagued him at the plate throughout his career.
Admittedly, Bader’s strong suit has always been his defense (he won a Gold Glove Award in 2021 with the St. Louis Cardinals) and this season was no exception. He recorded 7 Outs Above Average to rank in the 92nd percentile of all qualified fielders, while landing in the 84th percentile for Arm Strength and 85th percentile in Sprint Speed — but how much leeway does that buy him if his batting stats fall back to their earlier middling numbers?
Considering the strength of his 2025 campaign, Bader is likely to be ambitious about getting more than $10 million in free agency this winter. Him turning down his side of the mutual option is clearly his way of showing that he intends to try his luck on the market.
If that happens, a reunion with the Phillies becomes unlikely — they’re already set to become one of the oldest teams in the league next season, so spending big to bring back a 31-year-old with shaky batting stats and a rather extensive injury history doesn’t seem particularly smart.
Still, Bader’s coming off the strongest season of his career, so as he likely heads into his third consecutive offseason as a free agent, he may be looking at his largest contract yet.
Is Trent Grisham’s Power Here to Stay?
Grisham was effectively a footnote in the blockbuster trade that sent Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres to the Yankees at the end of 2023, but that’s not how he looked at the plate this year. While his consistency wavered at times as the season went on, Grisham added crucial power to New York’s offense, and the team may extend a qualifying offer to keep him in the lineup for 2026.
But was Grisham’s 2025 campaign strong enough to justify a $22.025 million pay day?
The 29-year-old ended this season with a .235/.348/.464 line across 581 PA (143 games), posting a career-best 34 home runs to rank second on the Yankees only behind superstar Aaron Judge. Grisham’s 116 hits, 74 RBI, .811 OPS, and 125 OPS+ also marked new career highs for the center fielder, and he ranked in the top 4% of all qualified batters in walk percentage.
Still, Grisham’s track record at the plate makes his 2025 stats look like outliers, and much like Bader, he may have trouble repeating them.
Going into his eighth major-league season next year, Grisham has never hit for batting average, and his career .218/.321/.400 line reflects that. That’s not necessarily a major issue, especially if he’s adding power to the lineup with an impressive number of home runs — but this is actually the first season he’s managed to do that.
The 34 homers that Grisham crushed in 2025 marked not only a new career best, but it was double his previous high. Prior to this year, the center fielder averaged just 11.7 home runs per season (18.2 per 162 games), with the 17 he hit in 2022 standing as his best.
It’s also worth noting that the two-time Gold Glove Award winner is coming off a career-worst season on defense. Grisham posted an abysmal -2 OAA to rank in just the 32nd percentile of all qualified fielders in 2025, while his Arm Value and Sprint Speed put him in the 27th and 32nd percentiles, respectively.
The Yankees have multiple players set to become free agents this winter, and their decision regarding a QO for Grisham will likely depend on where they stand with re-signing Bellinger. Should they decide to go all-in on a new deal with Bellinger, they may decide it’s not worth the investment to extend a QO to Grisham.
Regardless, Grisham’s newfound pop at the plate will almost certainly be enough to earn him a decent deal in free agency.
Harrison Bader vs. Trent Grisham
In a choice between Bader and Grisham, the general consensus seems to be that Grisham comes out on top. The 29-year-old was ranked 14th by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and 24th by The Athletic’s Jim Bowden on their lists of the top free agents for 2025-26, while Bader failed to appear in either article.
Still, recency bias can’t only focus on the positives. Grisham’s 34-homer season obviously drives up his value, but his defensive slump also needs to be considered.
In a worst-case scenario, Bader could regress to his pre-2025 stats at the plate, and he would still add substantial value as a fierce outfielder. If Grisham’s newly discovered power never sees the light of day again, his batting stats would likely be lower and less consistent than Bader’s, and he may not even be able to make up for it on defense.
Grisham will almost certainly be more expensive than Bader, as well.
As of November 5, Spotrac projects Grisham will land a four-year, $48.2 million deal this offseason for an average annual value (AAV) of just over $12 million. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden went even higher, predicting the 29-year-old will get a two-year, $30 million contract ($15 million AAV).
On the other hand, Bader is projected to sign a two-year, $20 million deal, per Spotrac, for an AAV of just $10 million.
Regardless of which player a team signs, both Grisham and Bader come with a substantial risk of regression — but high risk can lead to high reward. If Grisham posts another 34 home runs next year and gets his defense back to a decent level, it’ll be hard to deny he’s worth $15 million per season. Similarly, a $10 million AAV will be a bargain if Bader’s 2025 stats are repeatable, especially for a team needing to bolster their defense in the outfield.
At the end of the day, value is in the eye of the beholder, and where a team looking for a cost-effective middle-of-the-lineup outfielder will favor Bader, a lineup in need of a power-hitter to smash home runs will look to Grisham.
Free agency is fun, isn’t it?
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