Kyle Tucker over 7.5 fantasy score
New day, same story. And that story is fading Alek Manoah, which I make sure to proudly do after my fading of him before the season was not so popular. It is always hard to land on a specific Astros hitter and was especially hard when you like a lot of matchups throughout the entire lineup.
Usually that would make me go with a pitcher’s hits allowed prop like Zack Wheeler last week, but with Manoah’s walk issues and the line being at a flat 5 it doesn’t feel all that worth it.
So I went with Kyle Tucker. Manoah’s struggles against lefties are a bit more pronounced than the baseline stats will tell you. You see that lefties are slashing .273/.408/.477 compared to the .263/.371/.434 of righties. A slight difference but one that doesn’t nearly seem drastic.
But what you don’t see is some of the other numbers such as a 6.73 FIP against lefties compared to only the 5.48 vs righties. A walk rate that jumps from 12.1% to 15.9% vs lefties. A hard hit % of 41.7% vs lefties with just 25% vs righties.
Manoah sits 60% 4-seam/sinker and now gets to face a lefty in Tucker who has been one of the best fastball hitters in the league for a few years now. In 2023 Tucker is hitting .317 and .333 against the 4-seam and sinker respectively. And if Manoah gameplans away from that, he gets to throw his slider that lefties are hitting .385 and slugging .692 against. Great matchup at the plate for Tucker and you also get the possible stolen base upside from him with his eight stolen bases on the year.