Four Bold Predictions for the 2026 Toronto Blue Jays

Every year, ball clubs experience performances and fluctuations that go against their internal projections, both positively and negatively. That’s just how she goes over the course of 162.

No team experienced more of those said performances in a positive light than the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays. A team that was picked to finish fifth in the AL East by the general consensus, the Blue Jays rode positive regression and internal breakouts all the way to a division title, the AL pennant, and Game 7 of the World Series.

Now, the Blue Jays won’t be sneaking up on anybody. A rock-solid ball club from top to bottom, most projections have them to finish somewhere between 87 and 93 wins and either first or second in the division.

We know who the top dawgs on this team are, and we have a strong idea of where the vast majority of the production is going to come from. Still, there’s always performances that occur each season that defy all expectations and projections.

Today, we’re going to dive into five of my boldest predictions for the 2026 Toronto Blue Jays, some bolder than others.

Addison Barger Receives Down-Ballot MVP Votes

If you know me, you knew this was coming.

Addison Barger mashes baseballs, runs faster than you think, has the second-strongest arm in the sport, and has one of the coolest, most violent swings you’ve witnessed. An absolute toolshed, Barger is the kind of player you dream on. The type of player where nothing seems impossible.

When you breakdown Barger’s season into three blocks, you may be surprised at just how good the production was for the vast majority of his season:

Barger experienced a full-fledged breakout once he began getting everyday at-bats in early May. The quality of contact data was in the upper echelon in all of baseball while he managed to keep the strikeout rate in a respectable range.

He experienced an extended slump post trade deadline all the way up until the end of the regular season, which significantly dampened his overall season numbers. However, he responded by unleashing a monstrous postseason, especially in the World Series where his OPS was north of 1.400 and had him lined up for World Series MVP had the Blue Jays been able to win Game 7.

Heading into year three, Barger is firmly cemented as the Blue Jays’ cleanup hitter against right-handed pitching. He’s also expected to get more action versus lefties. Should he reach the 600 plate appearance threshold, I’m predicting a monster year for Addison Barger.

Brandon Valenzuela Steals Tyler Heineman’s Job By Midseason

This is more of a pro Brandon Valenzuela than an anti Tyler Heineman prediction. What Heineman gave the Blue Jays production wise as the backup catcher was nothing short of phenomenal.

In just 64 games, Heineman accumulated 2.1 fWAR and 120 wRC+ while providing sterling defense behind the dish. I don’t expect any regression from a defensive standpoint. Offensively, though, it is a different story.

Heineman’s .341 wOBA was backed up by a .273 xwOBA. His .289 BA was backed up by a .215 expected. His .416 SLG was submarined by a .293 expected. Now you may be thinking, why does this matter? The backup catcher’s job is to be strong defensively and to call a good game. Offense isn’t the priority.

You’d be absolutely correct. Here’s the thing though: Brandon Valenzuela grades out even better defensively, has been lauded by his pitchers as being a phenomenal game caller and calming presence behind the plate, he’s got an absolute cannon of an arm, and is over nine years younger than Heineman.

The icing on top of the cake working in Valenzuela’s favor is that he’s got above-average raw power in his bat. He’ll never be mistaken for being a strong hitter, but his ability to run into a ball is much higher than Heineman.

You should never take spring training results for anything more than they’re worth, which is little to nothing. However, in Valenzuela’s case, I was much more intrigued by the quality of contact and swing decisions he displayed this spring. He is undoubtedly the long-term backup catcher in Toronto. I just think that process will begin as early as 2026.

Mason Fluharty Leads All Relievers in fWAR

Mason Fluharty enjoyed a fantastic rookie campaign with the Blue Jays in 2025. His 4.40 ERA gave off fraudulent vibes as both his xERA which was over a full run lower (3.30) and his SIERA (3.78) painted a much rosier picture as to the kind of year he should’ve enjoyed.

Fluharty’s pitch mix in 2025 consisted of two pitches, a cutter and a sweeper. Both offerings performed extremely well and induced an above average amount of whiff (27.9% and 37.3% respectively).

The cutter averaged 90.2 MPH with 10 inches of vert and 3.5 inches of horizontal, while the sweeper sat 81.7 MPH with 2.1 inches of vert and 16.5 inches horizontal.

In spring ball, his cutter was up to 90.9 MPH with 11.1 inches of vert and 2 inches of horizontal, while the sweeper is up to 82.9 MPH with 1.7 inches of vert and 15 inches horizontal. So, Fluharty has effectively added a full tick of velo without sacrificing shape.

The most intriguing development, however, is that he’s added a new changeup to his repertoire. This now gives Fluharty his first pitch that moves arm side, which will help him considerably against right-handed hitters by keeping them honest on the outer quadrant of the strike zone.

In a division that sees no shortage of impact left-handed hitters, Fluharty will hear his number called many times in 2026. I’m banking on another step forward, one that will lead him atop the Blue Jays reliever leaderboard in FanGraphs WAR.

Data below via TJStats

Yondrei Rojas Is a Leverage Reliever Come October

This is my biggest dart throw. Yondrei Rojas pitched 37.2 innings in 2025 between High-A Vancouver and Double-A New Hampshire. It was his first full season as a strict reliever since his pro debut in the DSL back in 2021. What he did in those innings was nothing short of eye-popping.

Rojas pitched to a 1.43 ERA and 2.19 FIP, and he backed it up with a 32.4% strikeout rate and 53.5% ground-ball rate. That is the dream profile if you’re a pitcher. A strikeout rate north of 30% and a ground-ball rate north of 50% gives a player an unbelievable damage suppression profile. Those markers make it easy to see why Rojas experienced the success that he did.

Rojas’ cutter breaks stuff models. It was the best individual pitch in all of MiLB from a Stuff+ standpoint. He also has a sinker and changeup he’ll use as his primary secondaries while mixing in a rare sweeper.

He’s expected to begin 2026 back in New Hampshire. A ticket to Buffalo could come in short order if he picks up where he finished off last season. From there, he’ll be a phone call away from the majors. I’m betting that he not only gets that call, but flourishes once he arrives. This is a bet on stuff and a kid with incredible moxie.