Top Notes From the Detroit Tigers’ ZiPS Projections for 2026

In 2022, the Detroit Tigers won 66 games, with their top player by WAR being Javier Baez. Oh, how things have changed. The Tigers have now had back-to-back years where they not only made the playoffs but won a series. A team on a trajectory we have not seen in Detroit in some time.

Many, myself included, saw this offseason as the one to start getting aggressive and supplement a strong roster with more proven vets to help take the team to the next level. So far, we have not seen that aggression.

Instead, the Tigers have focused on bringing players back – moves that I think were smart – and banking on the development of players already in the organization – a decision I think is risky.

While this new era of winning baseball in Detroit is still young, and the Tigers aren’t nearing the end of their competitive window, the reasons to push for more this offseason are heavily attached to back-to-back Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, who is in his final year of team control.

We have covered the Skubal situation and do not need to exhaust feelings today. That’s not what this is about. Today, I want to focus on what this Tigers team can be, not from an emotional fan perspective, but from a calculated projection system called ZiPS.

ZiPS utilizes information such as a player’s past performance and general aging trends to help paint a picture of the type of season that player might have. For a more detailed outline, I suggest reading this article.

Sure, projection systems have their flaws, but they can help you understand where players and teams stand relative to other teams. If you’d like to see the Tigers’ ZiPS projections to follow along, click here.

Detroit Tigers ZiPS: Position Players

If you followed the Tigers last season, you likely know where things went wrong. After a brilliant first half, the offense struggled. Key players disappeared for stretches, and the unlikely heroes of the first half regressed back to their career norms.

All indications point to the front office riding with what they have and allowing top prospects such as Max Clark or Kevin McGonigle to earn their way onto the team at some point this summer. Maybe Colt Keith and Parker Meadows take a step forward. Maybe they don’t.

We all have our own feelings on the Tigers’ offense, but let’s see what the projections say.

• Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle Bring Impact – I want to preface this by saying the projection system has Clark slotted for 560 plate appearances and McGonigle for 399, which I think is very high. I think McGonigle’s playing time projections are closer to accurate, and they have him posting a .254/.329/.442 slash, 2.3 fWAR, 13 home runs and a 112 OPS+. That would tie McGonigle with Clark for fourth on the team in fWAR.
  
  Clark’s projection – .243/.334/.380, 98 OPS+ – might not be too far off. The raw home runs, stolen bases, and other numbers might be off due to his projected plate appearances, but the system thinks the defense and speed make up for an average offensive profile.
  
  Regardless of how much these two actually play, my takeaway is that the projection system does not see massive flaws. ZiPS usually does not project great seasons for rookies due to a lack of an MLB sample to draw from, so a 112 OPS+ for McGonigle is high praise.
  

• Faith in Third Base? – With Torres back, it looks like Keith could see more time at third. I see Keith as having the highest ceiling and floor, although his defense will hold back the fWAR number.
  
  Zach McKinstry is projected to take a step back, slashing .243/.316/.392, 96 OPS+, with 10 home runs, which is still above career numbers but short of his 2025 production. If Keith is at third, that likely means McKinstry is back in a utility/SS role, where I think he best fits.
  
  Jace Jung is getting too many plate appearances (546) in the projection, which gives him a .226/.322/.395 slash and 18 home runs. We’d all welcome that, but I think we can agree that volume won’t happen.
  
  Hao-Yu Lee and Max Anderson are two prospects ready to debut who could be options at third base. Lee is projected for a 93 OPS+ and Anderson a 95. In all honesty, those are pretty solid numbers for rookie projections and at least provide some hope that the depth options are not troubling. Overall, third base looks like less of a problem than I expected, according to ZiPS, of course.
  

• Greene, Torkelson, and Carpenter Continue To Produce – Each of these players has their flaws, but don’t forget just how good they can be. Riley Greene is projected to cut his strikeouts down to under 170 while still putting up 29 home runs. While ZiPS sees him trading some more contact for a little less power, it still has him finishing with a 125 OPS+, .268/.334/.487 slash, and 3.1 fWAR.
  
  Spencer Torkelson essentially is projected to repeat his 2025 season with 31 home runs and a 118 OPS+, which I think we would all sign up for right now if we could. Last season was the most complete we have seen him look, and considering he’s hit exactly 31 home runs twice, why not make it a third time?
  
  Lastly, Kerry Carpenter is projected for a slightly better season, slashing .262/.318/.491 with a 120 OPS+ and 24 home runs. Being a platoon player limits his total plate appearances, which can screw things in a projection, but we all know he is a better player than we saw, at times, in 2025.
  

• Parker Meadows Does Exactly What He Needs To – Center field was a mess last season, with Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling missing so much time. Detroit has to get more consistency and health out of their center fielders, and Meadows bouncing back makes this team look a lot different.
  
  Don’t get me wrong, we have only seen one stretch of Meadows’ offense that was promising: the second half of 2024. However, I’m not asking for an All-Star. All he needs to do is provide near-average offense, steal some bags, and play elite defense.
  
  Meadows is projected for a .234/.308/.394 slash, 13 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 94 OPS+. If he does that at the plate, and his defense is what we expect, he’ll surpass the projected 1.7 fWAR.
  

Detroit Tigers ZiPS Projections: Pitching Staff

What a historical run we have witnessed from Skubal over the past two seasons. No matter how his time in Detroit pans out, these past two years are something you will not forget any time soon. The Tigers have a clear ace, while Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize have been solid rotation pieces, and the rest of the starters come with their own questions for 2026.

For the bullpen, the Tigers brought back Kyle Finnegan, which I think has been an underrated move, and added veteran Kenley Jansen, whose best days are behind him. Is that enough for this relief corps? Minor league signings and non-roster invites have a path to the roster that is a bit too easy for my liking.

• Reese Olson and Troy Melton Round Out the Rotation Nicely – You and I both know the talent that Reese Olson has and the production he’s put up in his young career. However, injury has cut his season short in back-to-back years. The Tigers desperately need a healthy Olson to help this team reach new heights.
  
  Olson is projected for a 3.87 ERA, 3.86 FIP, and 8.5 K/9 in 2026. That’s the good. The bad? It’s across 107 innings. Considering the model uses past performances, his injury history pulls this number down, even if he’s healthy coming into spring.
  
  Melton is expected to step up with a 4.19 ERA, 4.21 FIP, and 7.9 K/9 in what would be a very impressive rookie season. The fifth spot in the rotation is going to be a fun one to follow this spring, and although Drew Anderson is not included in these projections, if Melton looks like these numbers suggest, it will be hard to move off him.
  

• The Bullpen Is Good Enough? – ZiPS does not have Jansen loaded into the Tigers, but other projection models have him around a 3.88 – 4.00 ERA and FIP, which is about what I would expect. Will Vest comes in at a 3.34 ERA, Tyler Holton at 3.59, Brant Hurter at 3.87, Brenan Hanifee at 3.95, and Kyle Finnegan at 4.08.
  
  While those numbers are going to fluctuate throughout the seasons, the projection at least tells us that there’s a good chance of the Tigers having a few relievers they can count on. I have a lot of faith in Vest, and Finnegan has never had an ERA over 4.00, so I’m comfortable with him. The two lefties have enough of a track record not to make me nervous.
  
  I still think there’s room for an addition or two, but overall, I would say this is a promising bullpen that might have only two spots that I’m truly worried about.
  

• A Third Straight Cy Young Season – I never thought that Skubal would match, let alone top, his 2024 season, but he did. How will 2026 look? According to ZiPS, another Cy Young-type performance: a 2.54 ERA across 184 innings with 226 strikeouts.
  
  These numbers will not come as a surprise to anyone. Skubal looks like one of the game’s pitchers and now has two elite seasons to back that up. The only question is where he will be playing in 2026, and if it’s in a Tigers uniform.
  

• Little Help from Prospects – Like I said before, these models have a difficult time predicting rookie success. You will not find many rookies projected to be much better than league average, which is why the Melton and McGonigle projections are so promising.
  
  But, other rookie pitchers are not getting the most favorable projections. Garrett Burhenn showed some promise in Double-A and is projected for a 4.93 ERA. Dylan Smith, who we saw briefly in 2025, has a 4.50 ERA projection, while Jaden Hamm and Andrew Sears have over a 5.00. Jake Miller was not included.
  
  Usually, there’s a reliever that pops up out of nowhere and gets innings, sometimes finding success, but these models do not predict such circumstances. My takeaway is the Tigers need more arms. Either via trade or free agency, they need more pitchers with some level of MLB experience to help them get through this season.
  

Final Thoughts

You can argue about individual players’ projections and how close/far off they might be, but let’s focus on what this is telling us about the team overall. The offense has a few established players you can count on, but it could still use one more impact bat. Perhaps McGonigle can fill that role.

On the pitching side of things, the projections made me feel better than I expected. The need for another starter doesn’t feel as important, but keep in mind these assume health, which is simply not realistic. If it were me, I’d still target a starter.

Overall, the Tigers are looking like a good team that really needs more. The path to “more” is not simple, however. The free agent market is bleak, and trades are difficult to pull off. Counting on rookie and internal improvement is risky, but it might be their best bet.