Daulton Varsho Needs to Heat Up Ahead of Free Agency

Known for his defence and power hitting, Daulton Varsho has been lacking in both regards so far in 2026. With his contract expiring after this season, is it time for the Toronto Blue Jays to move on, or is there more in the tank?

I’d like to start this article by saying I love to be proven wrong, especially when my comments aren’t necessarily positive. Varsho took a step in the right direction to close out April by homering off of Bailey Ober, but that unfortunately hasn’t been the status quo for the season so far.

Although it’s still very early on in the season, Varsho is slugging .235/.307/.400, all three numbers lower than last season. As of now, both his SLG and .707 OPS are over 100 points lower than they were last year, which is far less than ideal. Making matters even worse, his defence has also taken a step in the wrong direction, most notably his arm strength and arm value.

This presents Toronto with a difficult decision. Varsho has been an exceptional fielder overall and a league-average hitter in his 3+ seasons for the Jays, and even in a “down” year, he’s still put up 0.7 WAR in 33 games so far.

However, the Jays have shown recently that they’re willing to let strong players walk in free agency if they have replacements they view as more valuable (see: Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt, etc.). But are Toronto’s replacements actually valuable enough in Varsho’s case?

Regardless of what the answer to that question is, the Blue Jays really need someone to step up and help them claw their way up the standings. If Varsho can’t be the guy to toss the team on his back, there are others that could be coming for his job on both the 2026 Blue Jays, and the teams of the future.

All stats updated prior to games on Tuesday, May 5

The Bat Hasn’t Been There in 2026

A boatload of home runs was advertised when the Blue Jays acquired Varsho for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno, and while it’s been inconsistent, he has brought the power. 2025 was an injury-plagued season for the lefty bat, but in 71 regular-season games, he hit 20 home runs, which was fourth-highest on the team. He did this in significantly less plate appearances than his fellow leaderboard-toppers, which makes the feat more impressive.

Varsho would add another three in 81 playoff plate appearances, although people tend to care more about one at-bat where he couldn’t get it past the infield. In the most important series of the season, Varsho struggled mightily, slashing .161/.257/.323 over seven games, not helping his cause.

Thankfully, he’s hitting above the Mendoza Line in 2026, but his power is back to the same range as 2023 and 2024, with the 29-year-old on pace for somewhere around 18-21 homers this season (via ZiPS and Steamer). Another significant drop has been in wRC+. That number has dropped from 123, which is 23% above league-average, last year, all the way down to 96, which is 4% below average.

As a defensive centre fielder, Myles Straw can bring everything that Varsho can, although they both rely more on range and jumps rather than their arm. At the plate, Straw is a downgrade. While his .296/.371/.444 line and stellar .326 xBA might make you question that, he’s never had a full season with an OPS+ above league average. The defence is there, but Toronto would undoubtedly like more consistent production at the plate.

Others, like Nathan Lukes, are also in play, although he’s flourished more as a corner outfielder. Speaking of corner outfielders, Anthony Santander, Addison Barger, Jesús Sánchez, Davis Schneider, Yohendrick Pinango, and George Springer all man those positions. Notably, Springer is also scheduled to hit free agency at season’s end.

Pinango has looked strong in his brief time on the major league roster, and while he might not win a gold glove, he can play league-average left field. There are others waiting in the minors, too, including R.J. Schreck and Jonatan Clase, with the latter already occupying a spot on the 40-man roster.

Defensive Slump

Varsho is still a great fielder. That in mind, though, his bread and butter (jump and range) has fallen off the plate a bit. In 2024 (his last full season), Varsho covered 3.2 more feet on average via his jump than the average outfielder, with his reaction time and burst leading the way.

In 2025, it was the exact same: 3.2 feet. This year, he’s covering 0.5 feet, meaning he’s performing just a hair better than the average outfielder. A lot of that is coming from his burst, which is the last couple of seconds of running before the catch, where he ranks 58th out of 88 qualified outfielders this season.

To compound things, Varsho’s arm isn’t very strong, but this is a guy coming back from a pretty significant shoulder surgery. Things are also improving in that regard, as while his arm strength dropped from 83.7 to 73.7 MPH from 2024 to 2025, it’s back up to 78.9 this season. That mark is the lowest amongst all active center fielders and third-lowest among all outfielders, period.

It doesn’t appear as if that number is ever going to rise, so with the diminishing results at the plate, it seems as if his future as a perennial Gold Glove contender might be in jeopardy.

Closing Thoughts

You can only have so many outfielders; I mean, look at what’s happening in Boston. When Barger and Lukes return, the Blue Jays are going to have to make some tough calls.

Let’s be clear, Varsho is a much more impactful player than most of the aforementioned outfielders. Even still, he needs to get going if he wants to continue to get everyday reps in the outfield and if he hopes to secure a nice payday once he hits the open market.

If Toronto were content with a Straw/Lukes platoon in centre field, it might allow them to attack other areas that need improvement (specifically, pitching depth).