Is There a Case for an AL MVP Not Named Aaron Judge?
Judge is the clear favorite for AL MVP, but these three dark horses still deserve a seat at the table, even if they’re chasing shadows.
In most MLB seasons, we spend the summer dissecting three, maybe four tightly packed award races. This year in the American League, Aaron Judge has put the MVP conversation in a chokehold, and it might already be lights out.
Still, we’d be doing a disservice to a handful of AL stars who are having legitimately awesome seasons if we completely overlooked their candidacy. This piece is not here to diminish Judge’s brilliance. It’s here to spotlight just how valuable Cal Raleigh, Bobby Witt Jr. (quietly) and Tarik Skubal have been, and what kind of absurd second-half fireworks it would take for any of them to even make things interesting.
This is Judge’s award to lose, but baseball is about appreciating greatness in all its forms. So while Judge continues his interstellar MVP campaign, let’s talk about the rest of the galaxy.
Stats updated prior to games on July 11.
Aaron Judge Is On Another Planet
Through 93 games, Judge is pacing for the best season of his career, and possibly one of the greatest of the 21st century. He holds a bWAR of 6.7, with a chance to surpass the 10.8 bWAR marks he posted in both 2022 and 2024. He’s on track to become the first player since Barry Bonds in 2002 to log an 11+ bWAR season.
Let’s throw some gasoline on that fire:
- MLB-best .356 batting average
- 34 home runs (2nd in MLB)
- 78 RBI (1st in MLB)
- 1.192 OPS (1st in MLB)
On Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 90th percentile or better in every major offensive metric, including xwOBA, xSLG, barrel%, bat speed and hard-hit rate. And while he does strike out plenty, we already know and expect the swing-and-miss to factor into his game. His BB% and quality of contact more than compensate.
Oh, and defensively, Judge remains elite in right field:
- 88th percentile in fielding run value
- 85th in range (OAA)
- 97th in arm value
- 86th in arm strength
We’re watching a towering, 33-year-old behemoth of a man play excellent defense and carry the best offense in baseball.
But… just for the sake of discussion, what if he does experience a meteoric collapse in the second half?
What It Would Take for Judge to Lose the MVP
Judge would need to hit a real wall. Maybe he slumps in August and September, finishes with an average hovering around .300, and slows the home run pace. And perhaps the Yankees, who have recently slipped to second in the AL East, miss the playoffs entirely while Toronto surges and Boston and Tampa sneak past them.
That scenario, paired with a sustained or supernova finish by one of the following players, could maybe create a conversation – if not for MVP supremacy, then at least for how absurdly good the runner-ups have been.
Cal Raleigh: AKA “Big Dumper”
Sure, Raleigh is slumping to start July (.107 AVG), but all three of his hits this month have left the yard. The power-packed catcher leads all of MLB with 36 home runs and ranks second in RBI (76), trailing only Judge.
Even more impressive: He’s doing this while catching one of the best pitching staffs in the game, leading a middling Mariners offense (13th in runs, 13th in OPS) almost single-handedly.
Despite his batting average lagging near .260, Raleigh’s advanced metrics are elite:
- 99th percentile in batting run value
- 90th in xwOBA
- 95th in xSLG
- 98th in barrel%
- 90th in bat speed
- 96th in BB%
Behind the plate, he’s no slouch either:
- 81st percentile in fielding run value
- 88th in framing (per Statcast)
- 76th in caught stealing above average
He has a real shot to break Judge’s 2022 AL record of 62 home runs. He’s also one of just five players ever to reach 36 home runs before the All-Star break, and he could take sole possession of second place all-time if he rips two home runs this weekend in Detroit. It’s unlikely he ties or surpasses Barry Bonds (39), but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
If he does eclipse Judge’s 62 home runs and leads Seattle to the playoffs? That would at least earn him a chunk of legit consideration.
Bobby Witt Jr.: The Summer Inferno
Bobby Witt Jr. is a known second-half monster. And he’s heating up again with 14 hits in his first nine games of July.
Last year, Witt posted a 9.4 bWAR, finishing just behind Judge. This year? He’s at 4.4 bWAR, despite slightly diminished power numbers. He’s still hitting .295 with 13 homers, 25 stolen bases and a .848 OPS in a weak Royals lineup.
But the Statcast page is radiant:
- 100th percentile in fielding range (OAA) and sprint speed
- 99th in baserunning run value
- 97th in xBA
- 95th in average exit velocity
- 92nd in batting run value
- 98th in fielding run value
What’s more, Witt’s July-August track record is ridiculous:
- 1.300 OPS in July 2024
- 1.050 OPS in August 2024
- .979 July OPS and 1.010 August OPS in 2023
If anyone is built to make a summer MVP push, it’s Bobby Witt Jr. He’s likely too far behind Judge now, but if Judge falters and Witt goes on a 2024-style heater, we’ll revisit this conversation.
Tarik Skubal: Chasing Kershaw
Tarik Skubal has been the best pitcher in the American League, and it’s not close.
His numbers are silly:
- 2.02 ERA
- 0.81 WHIP
- 148 K / 14 BB in 116 IP
The last time a non-Ohtani pitcher won MVP was Clayton Kershaw in 2014 (7.7 bWAR). Skubal is pacing to be right in that ballpark. The caveat, however, is that Kershaw was not challenged by any ludicrous seasons by position players.
Baseball Savant does think Skubal has been, and could continue to be, basically perfect:
- 100th percentile in pitching run value
- 98th in fastball run value
- 100th in offspeed pitch run value
- 97th in xERA
- 95th in K%
- 99th in BB%
- 98th in average exit velocity allowed
He’s the undisputed ace of the league-best Detroit Tigers. If he finishes with a sub-2.00 ERA, 250+ strikeouts and 8+ WAR, and the Tigers claim the AL’s top seed, he becomes a challenger.
A Trophy for the Rest?
Let’s not kid ourselves, Aaron Judge is the MVP right now, and it’s not all that close. But that shouldn’t minimize what Raleigh, Witt and Skubal are doing. And if this were the NL? They would firmly be in the race.
Unless something drastically changes, Judge is on track to win his third AL MVP and second in a row. But we still need to celebrate the excellence happening just behind him.
And who knows? Maybe Judge stumbles. Maybe Raleigh reaches 63 homers. Maybe Witt goes scorched earth again. Maybe Skubal finishes the year with Pedro Martinez’s 1999 numbers. It’s baseball, so wild things can happen.
Until then, consider this your unofficial “AL MVP if Judge Didn’t Exist” preview.
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