Bold Predictions for 2024 From the Just Baseball Staff

This is the final installment in a three-part series of Just Baseball staff predictions. Don’t forget to check out part one, our predictions for the playoff field, and part two, our predictions for end-of-year awards.

As spring training wound down, I sent a questionnaire to the Just Baseball staff, asking their thoughts about the upcoming MLB season. Most of the questions were pretty standard: Who will win the NL East? Who will win the AL Cy Young? Who will win the World Series?

For the final question, however, I wanted our staff to think outside the box: What is one bold prediction you have for the 2024 season?

As you’ll soon realize, I left the definition of “bold” up to interpretation. Some of these predictions are merely improbable, while others are almost inconceivable. Ultimately, I think that’s part of the fun.

Here are all those bold predictions, organized into some loose categories and featuring a little bit of my own commentary. You can find all the predictions in the following table, and you can click each one to read my thoughts down below.

All predictions were made before Opening Day.

Team Predictions

Optimistic Predictions

The Mariners Finish with Three Pitchers in the Top Five of Cy Young Voting – Zach Worden

This isn’t that far-fetched. The AL Cy Young race is wide open, and the Mariners have the best rotation in the American League. But wait, because I left out the second half of Zach’s prediction.

Those three pitchers? Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller.

Castillo and Kirby are hardly surprising choices, but I was sure Zach would pick Logan Gilbert (64 starts over the past two seasons with a 3.47 ERA) instead of Miller (25 starts in his rookie season with a 4.32 ERA). It would be pretty amazing if Miller finishes in the top five of Cy Young voting in his sophomore season.

J-Rod Carries the Mariners to 100 Wins – Brandon Anderson

It’s bold to have the Mariners winning 100 games, no doubt about it. However, if they do reach that mark (for the first time since 2001!), it’s safe to say Julio Rodríguez will have played a huge role in their success.

The way most of our staff sees it, the Mariners are the third best team in the AL West. However, stars like J-Rod (and the aforementioned starting rotation) can lead the team to great things if they all take another step forward in 2024.

The Pirates Sneak in as a Wild Card – Ryan Trieste

This might be the prediction I’m rooting for most of all. The Pirates are probably the worst team in their division. But the NL Wild Card race is wide open, and Pittsburgh has enough promising young players that this team could blow its preseason projections out of the water.

For this prediction to come true, young guys like Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Henry Davis have to finally put it all together, while rookies like Jared Jones (and eventually Paul Skenes) must contribute right off the bat. Who doesn’t want to see all that?

The Royals Finish Second in the AL Central and Just Miss the Playoffs – Cameron Zunkel

This is just as optimistic as Ryan’s Pirates prediction, although it’s not nearly as exciting.

The AL Wild Card race will be crowded, and just getting close to the postseason would mark a huge step forward for the Royals. Still, it wouldn’t be nearly as fun as seeing them actually make the playoffs.

Don’t Sleep on the Tigers, Baby – Ty Jadah

Not exactly a prediction, but I don’t disagree.

The Tigers supplemented a talented young team with several veteran reinforcements this winter. With guys like Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows, and Mark Canha at the top of the lineup, and Tarik Skubal, Kenta Maeda, and Jack Flaherty in the rotation, this team could make some noise.

The Phillies Beat the Braves in the NLDS for the Third Consecutive Year – John McCoy

I am showing my Phillies fan bias by sorting this into the “optimistic” category? Yes. Do I care? No.

Pessimistic Predictions

The Astros Miss the Playoffs in Their First Year Under Joe Espada – Tyler Antonelle

At first thought, this is a shocking prediction. The Astros haven’t missed the playoffs since 2016. Heck, they haven’t missed the ALCS since 2016!

Yet, this one might be more likely than you’d first think. If the Astros had lost one more game last season, they wouldn’t have won the AL West. If they had lost two more games, they wouldn’t have made the playoffs at all.

The Cardinals Finish in Last Place Again in 2024 – Seth Carlson

I’ll let Seth explain this one himself:

“Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are an elite duo, so I understand the Cardinals’ desire to win with them. But outside of those two, this roster is aging quickly.

To that point, are you moved by 36-year-old Kyle Gibson (4.73 ERA in 2023), soon-to-be 37-year-old Lance Lynn (5.73 ERA in 2023, second worst ERA among qualified starters), and 35-year-old Miles Mikolas (4.78 ERA in 2023) behind ace Sonny Gray? That rotation doesn’t strike me as playoff-caliber. Their bullpen is also just OK.

All in all, this team doesn’t inspire much confidence. It may be time to tear this core down sooner rather than later.”

The Yankees Miss the Playoffs… – Ben Bilotti, Tyson Shushkewich

Two different staff members made this bold prediction, although they each added some extra information

• Ben Bilott: … and Juan Soto leaves in free agency
• Tyson Shushkewich: …and finish fourth in the division due to injuries (although Juan Soto will be lights out)

Ultimately, I put these two together because what’s bold about these predictions is the first half of the statement. I wouldn’t be surprised if Soto is fantastic in 2024 nor if he finds a new home in free agency. What’s more, if the Yankees fail, it will almost certainly be due to injuries.

The Dodgers Will Not Win 100 Games – Kevin Henry

Kevin also provided some additional details for this one:

“The Dodgers will not win 100 games, as the NL West shows it is a tougher division than many thought it would be heading into the campaign and the L.A. rotation struggles to stay healthy and dominant.”

Kevin makes a couple of strong points. First of all, the Diamondbacks, Giants, and Padres could all be better than many of us are expecting.

Secondly, the Dodgers’ rotation could fall apart pretty quickly if Yoshinobu Yamamoto struggles to adapt to MLB, Tyler Glasnow gets hurt, Bobby Miller has a sophomore slump, and guys like Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw face setbacks as they recover from injury.

Player Predictions

Awards

Royce Lewis Wins the AL MVP – Harrison Bruns

*Harrison made this prediction before Royce Lewis suffered a quad injury on Opening Day

This is a real long shot. Don’t get me wrong, Royce Lewis is terrific. But the AL MVP field is crowded with the likes of Juan Soto, Julio Rodríguez, Aaron Judge, Corey Seager, Yordan Alvarez, Adley Rutschman, José Ramírez… You get the point.

Still, if Lewis keeps producing like he did in his rookie season (and gets back on the field quickly), he’ll certainly force his way into the MVP conversation. He would be the first Twins MVP since Joe Mauer in 2009.

Oneil Cruz and Bobby Witt Jr. Each Finish Top Five in MVP Voting – Spencer Tracy

This is both a bold prediction and a perfectly reasonable prediction wrapped up in one. Bobby Witt Jr. finished seventh in AL MVP voting last year, and I could easily see him finishing in the top five in 2024.

Oneil Cruz, on the other hand? Picking Cruz to finish in the top five is almost as bold as picking Royce Lewis to win the MVP. Not only would Cruz have to stay healthy in 2024, but he would have to switch into a gear we have yet to see from him at the MLB level.

Kris Bryant Stays Healthy and Wins Comeback Player of the Year – Renee Dechert

This is a nice, wholesome prediction.

At this point, fans are long past expecting Bryant to return to MVP form. Instead, it would just be nice to see him stay on the field for a full season. Rockies fans deserve a nice thing.

Dylan Cease Finishes Top Three in NL Cy Young Voting (and the Padres Make a Deep Playoff Run) – Elijah Evans

Despite the Padres’ disappointing finish in 2023, the starting pitching was really quite good. They led all of baseball with a 3.69 ERA and finished fourth with 14.5 FanGraphs WAR. It wasn’t all Blake Snell, either.

Perhaps the Padres and pitching coach Ruben Niebla can help Dylan Cease rediscover his form from 2022, when he finished as the runner-up for the AL Cy Young.

A strong year from Cease won’t be enough to get the Padres to the playoffs all on its own, but a rotation fronted by Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and a Cy Young-caliber Cease could certainly be dangerous come October.

Accomplishments

Giancarlo Stanton Leads the AL in Home Runs (with 46) – Eric Treuden

This is really two bold predictions in one. Not only does Stanton have to homer at such a frequent pace, but he has to stay healthy for most (if not all) of the season.

Thus, this prediction is highly unlikely – but I’m absolutely rooting for it to come true. Can you imagine a lineup with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and prime Giancarlo Stanton? That’s the stuff of baseball legend.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand Hits 40 Home Runs – Aram Leighton

Only six players hit 40 bombs last year, and all six were already proven sluggers. Hitting 40 home runs is hard. Hitting 40 home runs in your first full MLB season is even harder.

And yet… Encarnacion-Strand hit 20 bombs in 67 games at Triple-A last year. He hit another 13 in 63 games at the big league level. The 24-year-old boasts elite raw power and plays his home games at the most homer-friendly stadium in the game.

Is he still a long shot to hit 40 home runs? Of course. But we’re making bold predictions here.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand Hits 35 Home Runs – Clay Snowden

Is Aram too bold? Is Clay not bold enough? I’ll leave it up to you to decide.

Jordan Walker Hits 30 Home Runs – Vincent Damato

Is this more or less bold than the Encarnacion-Strand predictions? I can’t decide.

Walker has some of the most impressive raw power in the game. What’s more, hitting 30 homers is easier than hitting 35 (or 40). That’s just basic math.

That said, Encarnacion-Strand tapped into a lot more power last year than Walker. He also plays in a much more homer-friendly home ballpark. This could really go either way.

Oneil Cruz Will Lead MLB in Home Runs – Joey Peterson

Well, well, well. What do we have here? It’s yet another unproven youngster from the NL Central with ridiculous raw power!

Joey’s prediction might be the most far-fetched of all. It’s one thing to hit a bunch of home runs. It’s another to hit a bigger bunch of home runs than guys like Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, and Kyle Schwarber.

Still, we should all be so lucky to see this come to fruition. Especially our own Spencer Tracy – it would make his prediction a lot more likely to come true.

Bobby Witt Jr. and Corbin Carroll Both Reach 75 Stolen Bases – West Jones

Wouldn’t this be fun?

There’s no doubt this is a bold prediction. Even Ronald Acuña Jr., the MLB stolen base leader last season, only stole 73 bags. Corbin Carroll “only” stole 54 and Bobby Witt Jr. “only” 49.

Yet, Carroll and Witt are faster than Acuña. And as Esteury Ruiz proved with his 67 swipes, a runner doesn’t even need an above-average OBP to steal that many bases under the new rules.

Teoscar Hernández Will Lead MLB in RBI Hitting Behind Betts, Ohtani and Freeman – Tim Kelly

This is one of my favorites.

Teoscar Hernández finished third in the AL with 116 RBI in 2021. He was hardly the biggest star in the Blue Jays lineup, but he drove in more runs than anyone else on the team. Why? Because he often hit behind George Springer, Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The 2021 Blue Jays had a stacked lineup, but the 2024 Dodgers are even better. So far this season, Hernández has hit sixth in his first three games, with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, and Max Muncy batting in front of him. It will help his chances if he eventually moves ahead of Muncy in the lineup, but no matter what, Hernández will get plenty of RBI opportunities in 2024.

Francisco Alvarez Will Be the Best Catcher in Baseball Not Named Adley Rutschman – Ryan Finkelstein

I didn’t even need to check who submitted this bold prediction – it was our resident Francisco Alvarez believer Ryan Finkelstein.

Alvarez has the potential to be a perennial All-Star, but can he blast ahead of guys like Will Smith, Cal Raleigh, and William Contreras in his age-22 season? It seems unlikely, but it would certainly be fun to see.

Six Players Reach 30 Homers & 30 Stolen Bases for the First Time in Baseball History – Patrick Lyons

It’s always bold to predict that something will happen for the first time in baseball history. After all, this sport has been around for a long time. We’ve never even seen five players reach 30-30 in a season, let alone six.

And yet, this doesn’t feel that far-fetched. Ronald Acuña Jr., Francisco Lindor, Julio Rodríguez, and Bobby Witt Jr. all accomplished the feat last season. No one would be surprised if each of them did so again in 2024.

Another four players had 25 homers and 25 steals; it was only the second time in history that eight players have reached 25-25 in a single season. On top of that, 19 players had at least 20 homers and 20 steals. Again, it was only the second in history that so many players reached those marks.

Mike Trout Gets Traded at the Deadline – Cameron Zunkel

Yes, I’m counting this as an accomplishment for Mike Trout.

At this point, it seems unlikely Trout ever leaves Anaheim, but boy oh boy, would it be great to see him playing a critical role down the stretch for a contending team.