Biggest Questions Surrounding the Cincinnati Reds
For many fans of the Reds, high hopes entering 2025 is justifiable. Still, there are many questions surrounding this team. Let's dive in to the most pressing ones and see if we can provide answers.
Well, you’ve made it. Another miserable winter is behind us and we inch closer and closer to Opening Day, which is more or less a holiday in Cincinnati. Regardless of what the team looks like, Opening Day has a special feel. The banks flood with people all with high hopes, no matter how long they last, for the Reds season.
Although the Cincinnati Reds have let us down time and time again, having high hopes for this season is justifiable. Hunter Greene and Elly De La Cruz have cemented themselves as stars while several key injuries from last season are healthy and ready to return. The Reds added legitimate major leaguers and, on paper, have a lot more options than last season.
No matter where you fall on the hopeful scale, there are questions surrounding this team. Some good, some bad. Not only is the roster different, but the team also brought in veteran manager Terry Francona to help steer the ship.
Today, I am going to highlight some of the biggest questions I have headed into the season.
How Different Will Terry Francona be Than David Bell?
No matter what you thought about David Bell, we can all agree Francona comes with more personality, not to mention a stronger track record. Being around Francona seems like a hell of a (good) time. Everyone has nothing but positive things to say, which is important when you spend that much time around a team.
I think a fresh voice and message is part of what this team needs. Francona will likely make some similar choices to Bell’s when it comes to platoons or analytics-driven decisions, but will mix in some old school as well. The Reds will still be active on the basepaths but it may not be as reckless as last season.
Players are going to respect and listen to Terry Francona. Not saying they didn’t with Bell, but Francona commands a different type of attention. He’s formula has won in the past and I have a feeling it is going to work well in Cincinnati.
Answer: Significantly.
How Much of an Impact Will Matt McLain Have?
The Matt McLain we saw in 2023 was on an MVP level pace. Across only 89 games, McLain had a 127 wRC+, 16 HR, 14 SB, and a 3.1 fWAR. Extrapolating that pace over 162 is not fair, so where does he ultimately fall?
Missing all of last season due to injury robbed us of some crucial information about McLain that can only be determined with a larger sample size. Is he a 2 fWAR player or a 6 fWAR player? I do think his athletic profile and defense will give McLain a high floor, but what’s his ceiling? That’s what we’ll find out.
Staying health is priority number one. Cutting down on the swing and miss is a close second. Francona has mentioned McLain hitting ahead of De La Cruz, which means he should see plenty of pitches to hit. Be patient and wait for something you can do damage with.
Answer: A few steps back from MVP pace, 3.2 fWAR
Do the Reds Win the Brady Singer Trade?
Winning this trade is not as easy as comparing Singer’s WAR to India’s come October. There are multiple layers with a trade like this. Targeting Singer meant you chose him over other options. Was that the right call? Moving India and replacing his bat, in some ways, with Gavin Lux is another layer to consider.
I liked the move at the time and feel even better about it today. Singer’s looked good throughout spring training and offers the Reds another long-term piece, if they choose to go that route. At only 28 years old, Singer is entering his prime while coming off his second best season. I think Singer has a chance to be the second- or third-best pitcher in the rotation, which is less of a take and more of the expectation.
Answer: Yes
Who are the High Leverage Relivers to Trust?
Bullpens are funny. Too often random relivers that no one expects much from pop up and have a great season. Because of that, I tend to not stress too much about a bullpen before the year starts. The Reds have a collection of interesting options, but not a single pitcher who truly gives you 100% confidence.
Emilio Pagan has the stuff to be an option. Alexis Diaz and Taylor Rogers have the experience, but each come with their own concerns. The competition should be fairly open and someone like Tony Santillan or Scott Barlow will have every opportunity to earn innings.
Don’t forget about Zach Maxwell and Luis Mey. The two rookies will likely start in the minors but offer the type of stuff that gets you called up pretty quickly. A bullpen with this many “maybes” should see a spot clear before too long. I’d say bullpen is an area of concern.
Answer: Taylor Rogers (with fingers crossed).
Do the Reds have a 2.5 or Higher fWAR OF?
Cincinnati’s outfield is a pretty impressive collection of guys with similar ceilings. No one is down right awful, but everyone falls into the “he should be your third best outfielder” conversation. Defensive limitations, platoon hitters, fringy power, and the list goes on.
Spencer Steer has shown the most offense of the bunch, but his injury and defensive limitations put a lot of pressure on the bat. Friedl has breached 2.5 fWAR in 2023, but his injury and how he looked last season leave me hesitant. I think Austin Hays has a good chance to reach 2.5 fWAR or higher with the home ballpark hopefully helping him tap into a big better HR numbers.
The Reds knew outfield was a problem all offseason and did not address it in a meaningful way. With more than one weakness on this roster, it’s hard for me to call outfield their Achilles’ heel, but it is concerning. Someone needs to step up, or this front office will have a lot of answering to do.
Answer: Yes, Hays
What Does Gavin Lux’s Role Look Like?
The addition of Lux was a head-scratcher at the time. As time went on, we learned that he would be moved around the field more than he was in Los Angeles. Some type of a super-utility role would be helpful, but is Lux the best fit for it?
The days of Lux as a shortstop are likely over. Although Lux has played third (1 game) and outfield (45 games), he has mostly been a second baseman and I worry about his versatility, or perhaps lack thereof. To his credit, he has worked tirelessly all spring on being about to move around and help this team. If he can play a decent third base that helps the Reds in a big way, but we still need to see it in action.
I’m sure Francona will play Lux across the field but I wonder if he is still doing so come September. I would love for Lux to fill that important utility role and be used as a do everything player, but I want to see it first. I could see a path where Lux settles into one role more than others either at third base or outfield.
Answer: Lands in a more focused role by the end of the year
Which Bounce-back Candidate Provides the Most Impact?
It is never a great sign when you have two handfuls of bounce back candidates to choose from. McLain, Jeimer Candelario, Nick Lodolo, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and so on. The reality is, Cincinnati needs several players to bounce back, not just one.
Candelario returning to the level of player he was in 2023 would be massive not only in the middle of the lineup, but would fill a hole at third. I also view Candelario as the most 50/50 chance, so we’ll call it a coin flip. I do think McLain and Encarnacion-Strand will perform better with Lodolo and Friedl being closer to question marks.
Luckily, the majority of these players are back to full health. Sustaining that health through the course of an entire season is a different story. McLain is the easy answer here, but I’ll give Encarnacion-Stand some love and put him as a close second.
Answer: McLain with Encarnacion-Strand a close second
Which Top Prospect(s) Earn a Role?
I’m sure several prospects will debut and see time with the Reds this season, but actually earn a role is a bit different. If Blake Dunn still falls into this category for you, I think he could carve out a fourth outfield/platoon role similar to the one Stuart Fairchild has claimed in recent years.
The way the farm system currently stands, there are a lot more pitchers close to major league ready than hitters. All three of Chase Burns, Rhett Lowder, and Chase Petty could see innings this season. Lowder, who posted a 1.17 ERA and 3.10 FIP across six major league starts, likely has the inside track. I think Petty is next on that list with Burns behind those two.
Bullpen flamethrowers Mey and Maxwell have a clear route to the bullpen – throw strikes, get called up. Both have filthy stuff and can grab 100 mph with their fastball, but command has been an issue. IF either, or both, show better command they offer a higher ceiling in 2025 than a few names projected for the Opening Day bullpen.
Answer: Lowder, Maxwell, Mey
What is the Plan for Noelvi Marte?
Let’s get the facts laid out on the table. Marte was busted for PED, returned unfocused making mental errors, and looked like a completely different hitter. His stock has never been lower, but he’s also only 23 years old with 100 games under his belt. Far too early to write him off.
Marte was optioned to the minors relatively early in camp. The plan is very clear: scrap last season and earn everything back. Get back to the minors, refocus, iron out the fundamentals, and show you can still be the impactful player the Reds traded for.
Without a doubt, Marte is going to be needed this season. The only way he can be useful is if he takes this wake up call to heart and puts in the work to return to the level of player we know he can be. I don’t think this is a “call up after two hot weeks” type of demotion. He’ll have to show long stretches of success.
Answer: Start back at square one
Do we Get a Full Season of Nick Lodolo?
Lodolo has had a frustrating start to his career. Injury after injury has not only led to not being available, but poor performance at times. The days when Lodolo is clicking you can see the high upside with his command and ability to generate swing and miss, but it had been few and far between.
That promising rookie year of 2022 feels like 10 years ago at this point. Even if Lodolo does not reach his ceiling, having a lefty with his ability going every fifth day is extremely important. Let’s call it 175 innings of a 3.80-4.10 ERA. I’d sign up for that right now if I could. Stability in the rotation cannot be overlooked and someone like Lodolo can have those six innings of one run outings mixed in.
Answer: YES!
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