The AL Central Has Been MLB’s Best Surprise This Year

Entering the 2024 season, the industry-wide expectation was that the AL East, NL East and NL West would once again be baseball’s most dominant divisions. The AL Central wasn’t even in the conversation for most exciting quintet of teams.

Here we are, inching closer and closer to the final month of the 2024 regular season and the AL Central has been one of the best divisions in the game. In fact, as of right now they’re the only one with four teams above .500 and are one of two (NL West) with three teams in a playoff spot.

This is a division with a ton of star power, so it’s not that surprising that the teams are doing well. Bobby Witt Jr. on the Royals is firmly in the thick of things in the AL MVP discussion. Jose Ramirez on the Guardians is one of the best third basemen of this generation. Tarik Skubal on the Tigers appears to be running away with the Cy Young Award this season and even has his eyes on a Triple Crown.

The list goes on.

Let’s take a closer look at these teams and what’s behind their collective performances this year. There’s no denying that there are some legit World Series contenders here, but a look under the hood at what makes these well-oiled machines run is necessary.

Let’s dive in.

The AL Central Is One of Baseball’s Best Divisions

But First, A Disclaimer

Before we get into it, the elephant in the room needs to be addressed: the Chicago White Sox.

At 31-104, the White Sox are truly one of the worst teams to ever be assembled in baseball’s long and winding history.

On the season, Chicago’s AL Central opponents have mostly beaten the snot out of them in their head-to-head matchups. This doesn’t mean that the other teams’ place in the standings isn’t deserved, but it’s important to note that having the White Sox in their division certainly doesn’t hurt.

Guardians record vs. White Sox: 5-5

Twins record vs. White Sox: 12-1

Royals record vs. White Sox: 12-1

Tigers record vs. White Sox: 9-1

For whatever reason, the Guardians, who at multiple points this season were the best team in the league, have had trouble against the cellar-dwelling Sox. The fact that they’re steamrolling, well, all other clubs will help them sleep at night either way.

Cleveland Guardians

Record: 76-58

Playoff position: 1st in AL Central

Outside of Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor, the Guardians don’t have a whole lot to be excited about on the offensive side of things. Entering the day, they’re seventh in the AL in runs scored and ninth in wRC+.

Where the club’s real value comes from is their pitching staff, especially the bullpen. As a whole, Cleveland’s staff is fifth in the AL in ERA and K/9 but that’s heavily carried by relievers. They fall to 12th in ERA and 10th in strikeouts per nine once you filter it by only starting pitchers.

Led by Emmanuel Clase, the Guardians’ bullpen has been deadly. If their starters are able to get through five or six innings and their offense can score two or three runs, the lead is usually safe. Relievers on the Guardians are first in the league in ERA by .80 points and they’re one of the best in walk rate, home run rate and strand rate.

Standout performers:

Jose Ramirez – 131 G, 566 PA, 33 HR, 96 R, 104 RBI, 32 SB, 137 wRC+, 5.0 fWAR

Steven Kwan – 108 G, 477 PA, 13 HR, 75 R, 40 RBI, 11 SB, 131 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR

Josh Naylor – 126 G, 527 PA, 28 HR, 72 R, 94 RBI, 5 SB, 117 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

Tanner Bibee – 26 GS, 143.0 IP, 9.82 K/9, 3.65 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 2.8 fWAR

Emmanuel Clase – 62 G, 62.1 IP, 39 SV, 7.80 K/9, 0.58 ERA, 2.13 FIP, 2.0 fWAR

Cade Smith – 62 G, 63.0 IP, 12.29 K/9 2.00 ERA, 1.55 FIP, 2.1 fWAR

Hunter Gaddis – 64 G, 61.0 IP, 8.11 K/9, 1.62 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 1.3 fWAR

Tim Herrin – 61 G, 53.2 IP, 8.72 K/9, 2.18 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 0.6 fWAR

Kansas City Royals

Record: 75-60

Playoff position: 2nd in AL Central – 1.5 GB in division, currently holds second Wild Card spot

It’s a miracle the Royals are even still hanging on in the playoff race, but here they are. This is not a team many thought would have a shot at contention, but they’re remained in the thick of things since day one of the year.

The Royals offense has the Guardians beat in multiple categories this year, including home runs, runs scored, ISO, batting average, wRC+ and fWAR. Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has been on another level this season and would easily be the AL MVP if those two outfielders in New York played in the National League.

Where things get especially interesting between the two AL Central heavyweights is on the pitching side of things. They’re complete opposites.

Every inconsistency the Guardians have had from their rotation this season, the Royals have had in their bullpen. Both went out and addressed their respective needs at the deadline, but as of right now it seems that the Royals did a better job at upgrading their roster.

Standout performers:

Bobby Witt Jr. – 135 G, 596 PA, 28 HR, 114 R, 95 RBI, 27 SB, 174 wRC+, 9.4 fWAR

Salvador Perez – 132 G, 542 PA, 25 HR, 55 R, 94 RBI, 0 SB, 122 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR

Vinnie Pasquantino – 131 G, 554 PA, 19 HR, 64 R, 97 RBI, 1 SB, 106 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR

Cole Ragans – 27 GS, 156.1 IP, 10.77 K/9, 3.28 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 4.1 fWAR

Seth Lugo – 27 GS, 172.0 IP, 7.64 K/9, 3.19 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 3.6 fWAR

Brady Singer – 27 GS, 152.2 IP, 8.67 K/9, 3.36 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 2.9 fWAR

Minnesota Twins

Record: 72-61

Playoff position: 3rd in AL Central – 3.5 GB in division, currently holds third Wild Card spot

While the Royals weren’t expected to be anywhere close to contention, the Twins were predicted to play better baseball than they have to this point. Regardless, they remain fully in striking distance of the top spot in the AL Central and would make the postseason if the year ended today.

The story of the Twins’ season has been their offense and how frequently it steamrolls over the competition. Currently, they’re third in the AL in wRC+ and are in the top-five in the league in home runs, run scored, batting average, OPS and fWAR.

What has easily been the biggest problem for the Twins this year is their durability. None of Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton or Royce Lewis have topped the 100-game threshold. Heck, none have more than 90 appearances on the season. Edouard Julien was also supposed to play a major role on the club, too, but he’s struggled with consistency.

The fact that the Twins haven’t been able to rely on any of their superstars is concerning, but they’ve continued to stay afloat despite the factors working against them.

Standout performers:

Willi Castro – 132 G, 539 PA, 11 HR, 79 R, 51 RBI, 12 SB, 114 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR

Carlos Santana – 123 G, 487 PA, 18 HR, 50 R, 55 RBI, 4 SB, 114 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR

Byron Buxton – 90 G, 335 PA, 16 HR, 54 R, 49 RBI, 6 SB, 141 WRC+, 3.3 fWAR

Joe Ryan – 23 GS, 135.0 IP, 9.80 K/9, 3.60 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 3.1 fWAR

Pablo Lopez – 26 GS, 148.0 IP, 9.79 K/9, 4.26 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 2.5 fWAR

Griffin Jax – 60 G, 58.1 IP, 11.73 K/9, 1.70 ERA, 1.90 FIP, 2.1 fWAR

Detroit Tigers

Record: 68-67

Playoff position: 3rd in AL Central – 8.5 GB in division, 5.0 GB in Wild Card race

The Tigers are the fourth team in the Central that has a shot at this thing, albeit a slim one. They’re just barely clinging to a record above .500 but a five-game deficit in the Wild Card standings is one that can quickly be erased by a well-timed hot streak.

On offense, Detroit is in the lower-half of the AL in pretty much every major category. Their pitching staff, led by Skubal, has fared much better.

In fact, Tigers pitchers are second in the league in FIP and HR/9, third in BB/9 and fourth in ERA. Not too shabby for a team that’s on the outside looking in in this year’s postseason race.

Standout performers:

Riley Greene – 110 G, 467 PA, 19 HR, 66 R, 56 RBI, 4 SB, 134 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR

Matt Vierling – 118 G, 468 PA, 15 HR, 66 R, 50 RBI, 4 SB, 109 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR

Colt Keith – 123 G, 469 PA, 12 HR, 48 R, 52 RBI, 7 SB, 98 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR

Tarik Skubal – 26 GS, 160.1 IP, 10.83 K/9, 2.58 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 4.8 fWAR

Reese Olson – 19 GS, 103.0 IP, 8.04 K/9, 3.23 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 2.3 fWAR

Will Vest – 58 G, 57.1 IP, 8.16 K/9, 3.14 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 0.9 fWAR