World Series Game 5 Best Bets; Yankees vs Dodgers Picks & Player Props

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees during the 2024 MLB season
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 4: Juan Soto #22 of the New York Yankees reacts with Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees after hitting a home run during the seventh inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium on August 4, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)

Alex Verdugo! We took him to go over 0.5 bases (-120), and he hit that with a base hit in his second at-bat. We also took him over 1.5 H/R/RBI, and with an RBI in his first AB, we hit both plays before the fourth inning was over.

Thankfully, we still have more baseball to bet on. I’m diving back into the player prop market as the ML and total are precisely where they should be.

This playoff run we’ve been on has been a lot of fun. We are up 13.44 Units in the playoffs, meaning a $100 unit bettor is up $1,344, taking my plays in October.

All of these picks are on BetMGM. Use Promo Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a first bet offer up to $1500 in bonus bets if you lose your first wager.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees @ 8:08 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Jack Flaherty (3.17 ERA) vs. Gerrit Cole (3.41 ERA)

We talked about how elimination games are more challenging to handicap because these managers’ game plans change quicker with increased urgency. Typically, we want to direct our attention to the bottom of the lineup, as the value usually increases when you target lesser-known names.

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However, I don’t see any value when looking at the lines for the bottom of each lineup. The Yankees’ bottom half provided much of the offense yesterday, so many of their lines have been juiced up. For example, Verdugo was -120 to go over 0.5 bases yesterday, and now, with a tougher matchup, he’s -150. I did look into Anthony Rizzo. He has excellent numbers against Flaherty, but I didn’t like his AB’s yesterday, so I have to see it go through. I feel the same about Jazz Chisholm, good prices, but didn’t like what I saw yesterday.

The Dodgers bats are appropriately priced for a matchup against Gerrit Cole. They struggled against him last time, and there wasn’t one specific hitter that I saw in Game 1 put up consistently good ABs. I’m sure they’ll make an impact today; I’m just unsure who exactly I want to zero in on.

In an ace-off, who is the one hitter you trust? I know my answer. His quality of contact was excellent against Flaherty, and because he’s just 2-11 all-time against him, he’s not priced as he should be.

Los Angeles Dodgers By the Numbers

Regular Season Statistics

Offense
NamewRC+wOBAOPSfWAR
Shohei Ohtani (DH) 181.4311.0369.2
Mookie Betts (RF)141.371.8634.4
Freddie Freeman (1B)137.365.8544.0
Teoscar Hernandez (LF)134.360.8403.5
Max Muncy (3B)135.362.8522.4
Will Smith (C)111.326.7602.7
Enrique Hernandez (CF)83.285.6540.7
Tommy Edman (SS)98.307.7110.9
Gavin Lux (2B) 100.310.7031.5
Team118.337.78133.7
These are offensive statistics from the 2024 regular season. I pulled everything from the typical starting lineup; at the bottom, that’s the entire team. So the starters’ stats won’t add up to the final tally because it incorporates all players from the regular season.

Playoff Statistics

NamewRC+wOBAOPSHard-Hit Rate
Shohei Ohtani (DH)166.409.93444%
Mookie Betts (RF)182.4351.06347.2%
Freddie Freeman (1B)31.208.46126.9%
Teoscar Hernandez (LF)101.312.69032.1%
Max Muncy (3B)187.4391.01434.8%
Will Smith (C)78.277.60528.1%
Enrique Hernandez (CF)145.377.86324%
Tommy Edman (SS)123.345.81122%
Gavin Lux (2B)61.258.59326.1%
Team122.343.78530.8%
These are offensive statistics from this year’s playoffs to see the hottest hitters in the lineup. I substituted Hard-Hit rate for fWAR in the playoffs, so we can see who consistently hits the ball the hardest. Players hitting the ball hard without seeing results may be in line for a better series moving forward, and vice versa.

Starting Rotation (Regular Season)

NamexERASIERAFIPxFIP
Jack Flaherty3.513.103.483.00
Yoshinobu Yamamoto3.443.142.612.86
Walker Buehler4.684.545.544.49
These are the three projected starting pitchers for the Los Angeles Dodgers in order of which game they will pitch. These four advanced numbers are what I view as the most important. xERA, SIERA, and xFIP are more predictive; while FIP is similar to ERA, it focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs.
NameERASIERAFIPxFIP
Jack Flaherty7.045.516.235.86
Yoshinobu Yamamoto5.113.614.714.07
Walker Buehler6.004.554.615.18
Team6.084.785.595.17
These are the three projected starting pitchers for the Los Angeles Dodgers in order of which game they will pitch. These four advanced numbers are what I view as the most important. xERA, SIERA, and xFIP are more predictive; while FIP is similar to ERA, it focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. This is just looking at how they’ve performed in the playoffs this season.

New York Yankees By the Numbers

Regular Season Statistics

Offense
NamewRC+wOBAOPSfWAR
Aaron Judge (CF)218.4761.15911.2
Juan Soto (RF)180.421.9888.1
Gleyber Torres (2B) 104.313.7081.7
Giancarlo Stanton (DH)116.330.7730.8
Austin Wells (C)105.315.7173.4
Anthony Volpe (SS)86.287.6573.4
Jazz Chisholm (3B)132.353.8252.3
Anthony Rizzo (1B)84.285.636-0.2
Alex Verdugo (LF)83.283.6750.6
Team117.331.76133.7
These are offensive statistics from the 2024 regular season. I pulled everything from the typical starting lineup; at the bottom, that’s the entire team. So, the starters’ stats won’t add up to the final tally because it incorporates all players from the regular season.

Playoff Statistics

NamewRC+wOBAOPSHard-Hit Rate
Aaron Judge (CF)94.299.70445%
Juan Soto (RF)203.4521.10644.4%
Gleyber Torres (2B)141.365.83233.3%
Giancarlo Stanton (DH)220.4781.17959.3%
Austin Wells (C)-1.163.34833.3%
Anthony Volpe (SS)147.374.80439.1%
Jazz Chisholm (3B)37.218.48129.2%
Anthony Rizzo (1B)182.4231.0000%
Alex Verdugo (LF)60.251.54425%
Team117.330.75936.6%
These are offensive statistics from this year’s playoffs to see the hottest hitters in the lineup. I substituted Hard-Hit rate for fWAR in the playoffs, so we can see who consistently hits the ball the hardest. Players hitting the ball hard without seeing results may be in line for a better series moving forward, and vice versa.

Starting Rotation (Regular Season)

NamexERASIERAFIPxFIP
Gerrit Cole3.593.793.693.99
Carlos Rodon3.963.784.394.09
Clarke Schmidt3.753.773.583.92
Luis Gil3.834.224.144.36
These are the four projected starting pitchers for the New York Yankees in order of which game they will pitch. These four advanced numbers are what I view as the most important. xERA, SIERA, and xFIP are more predictive; while FIP is similar to ERA, it focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs.

Starting Rotation (Playoffs)

NameERASIERAFIPxFIP
Gerrit Cole3.315.023.605.39
Carlos Rodon4.401.752.121.99
Clarke Schmidt3.864.374.564.62
Luis Gil4.506.743.926.94
Team3.893.813.354.26
These are the four projected starting pitchers for the New York Yankees in order of which game they will pitch. These four advanced numbers are what I view as the most important. xERA, SIERA, and xFIP are more predictive; while FIP is similar to ERA, it focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. This is just looking at how they’ve performed in the playoffs this season.

When we backed Teoscar Hernandez in game two, I got plenty of comments asking why I would back someone who is 1-9 against a pitcher. I know it sounds a bit crazy, but when I’m handicapping these hitters, I don’t care about the results. What I care about is the batter’s quality of contact and how they match up against the pitch mix. That’s much more indicative of future performance rather than relying on the box score numbers.

Juan Soto is 2-11 with one extra-base hit and three strikeouts against Flaherty is his career. That’s misleading, as Soto has faced him thrice since 2023. He went 0-1 against him last year and 1-2 in Game 1 of the World Series. Flaherty is a different pitcher than he used to be, and Soto is a more mature hitter than the five PA sample back in 2021.

Soto is coming off a game where he struck out twice, something you rarely see. He’ll make that fix; he always does. He ended up with a 1-4 day with a double. His one hit was a 97 MPH double, but he also had the second hardest hit ball of the game at 110 MPH with a .430 xBA, but it was a groundout.

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He went 0-3 in Game 3 as well, further contributing to cheaper lines for him. He did have a 102 MPH lineout in that game, and I thought he put up great ABs all game, just no results. He should see those balls drop today with his second look against Flaherty.

When Soto faced Flaherty, I felt he had nothing to put Soto away. His first AB was a four-pitch walk, two four-seamers, two knuckle curves, and two pitches Soto has crushed this year. Flaherty threw him six pitches in the second at-bat, with four of them being sliders and the other two curveballs. It makes sense that he’d utilize the slider against Soto, as it’s the only pitch he hasn’t crushed this year.

He hit an outside slider at 98 MPH, but it was on the ground and ended up being a double play. So, on a slider, he didn’t see results, but that goes into his memory bank as a good PA; he hit the ball with authority.

In his next AB, he saw five pitches, and four of them were breaking balls. On the fifth pitch of the AB, Flaherty painted a slider on the outside corner, and Juan Soto hit a 109 MPH single to center field. Soto saw the slider well, and he spit on everything else.

Flaherty is primarily a fastball/slider/knuckle curve pitcher. Soto is one of the best fastball hitters in baseball and has a .439 xwOBA against curveballs. If Soto is seeing his slider well, there isn’t a way Flaherty can get him out unless he executes flawlessly.

Nobody controls the batter’s box quite like Soto, and he would be terrifying to face for another go-around. If you were going to back a star hitter in an elimination game, Soto is the guy. Against the Royals, he went over this line in Game 4 to give the Yankees the win. In Game 5 against the Guardians, he went 3-5 with a double and a home run. Yesterday, he went 1-4 with a double. The game is on the line, and I want Juan Soto.

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I also only trust a few hitters when facing elite bullpens. The Dodgers have all their horsemen and are going from Gerrit Cole to leverage arms. Soto’s matchup against Flaherty is solid, and Soto has now seen all of these leverage arms. He only gets better as he sees you more, his confidence rises, and his ability to control the strike zone follows suit.

Juan Soto has exceeded 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs in five of his last six games, averaging 3.5 per game. Over his last 20 games, he’s been over this line in 15 of them. Over his last ten games against the Dodgers, he’s been over that line in seven.

Over his last ten games, he’s been over 1.5 bases in five, four of which came in the previous six games. Juan Soto is at home against a pitcher he saw well and now sees him again five days later; that’s the best matchup in this game.

The Picks: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-125) Risk 1.25 Units. Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135) Risk 0.5 Units

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