If you can believe it, the Angels held a lead after the top of the fifth inning yesterday.

It was a 2-1 game going into the bottom of the fifth before it completely unraveled. Six runs in the fifth inning and another four in the sixth told me it was time to sleep. Angels ML (+134) was a complete whiff, but we get it back today.

I’m focusing on a strikeout prop showing today, but I turned it into a mini-ladder because I love his upside today.

2025 Record: 15-7 (+7.27 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres @ 8:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Rockies: Chase Dollander (7.20 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 5 Innings)

Padres: Kyle Hart (11.12 ERA, 2.12 WHIP in 5.2 Innings)

Kyle Hart clutched up for us when we took him over 3.5 strikeouts against a Guardians team that struck out at one of the lowest rates in baseball. We took him due to the mystery surrounding the man who returned from the KBO after a brief MLB stint. He amazed in Korea and showed impressive stuff in his first outing back in the States.

However, he got crushed by the Cubs in his last start. It was his “welcome back to the big leagues” start. Hart completely lost the strike zone, walking four. When he had to get it in the strike zone, it got belted. He didn’t even get out of the first inning, allowing five runs, ballooning his ERA to 11.17.

This is the perfect buy-low spot to get back in on Hart. His arm will be fresh after throwing just 39 pitches, and he’ll be determined to prove himself against one of the worst offenses in baseball.

He reminded me of Matthew Boyd, coming off seven strikeouts against the Dodgers in his first start. Tall, lanky lefty throwing from a three quarter slot that can get plenty of swings and misses on their sweeper and changeup, while working up in the zone with the four-seamer and displaying a sinker.

He hasn’t been over 4.5 strikeouts yet, getting to four in his first start in five innings while being limited to 80 pitches. Then, he got blown up by the Cubs, striking out zero. Regarding strikeouts, these are two of the toughest to back right out of the gate. The Guardians have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate against lefties, and the Cubs have the second-lowest, plus one of the best offenses in baseball.

Now, he gets a date with the Rockies back at his ballpark. The Rockies got blown away by right-hander Nick Pivetta yesterday, and they hold the sixth-highest strikeout rate against lefties this season. Last season, the Rockies struck out 27.3% of the time against southpaws, the second-worst mark in baseball. On the road against lefties, that number rose to 30.2%, three percent higher than any team in baseball.

I also love backing a pitcher when it looks entirely different from the night prior. Nick Pivetta is a right-hander throwing four-seam fastballs and curveballs at a high release point. Kyle Hart is the complete opposite.

Depending on who is in the lineup, plenty of batters have a high strikeout rate against lefties. Hunter Goodman, Ryan McMahon, Sean Bouchard, Ezequiel Tovar, and Kris Bryant strike out at a 29.7% rate or higher. That’s five big-time targets already, which doesn’t include Mickey Moniak, who strikes out almost 35% of the time against lefties. Jacob Stallings is near 25%, an above-average target against lefties. Michael Toglia strikes out 28% of the time against lefties as well.

Before he went over the KBO, he struck out 13 batters in 11 innings in his lone big league stint. In spring training this season, he struck out a batter per inning. In 157 innings last year in the KBO, he struck out 182 batters.

If you look at his FanGraphs projections for the year, his strikeout rate ranges from 17% to 23%. In an average start against an average offense, he should start to get consistent 4.5 strikeout lines juiced towards the over as he progresses throughout the season.

But in this matchup, he’s facing one of the best teams to rack up strikeouts against at home with a fresh arm after a bad start. I love this low buy opportunity, and while I project him to finish with five strikeouts, I think the upside is worth a mini-ladder today.

The screenshot shows that the bet is over 5.5 for 0.3 units, but it’s 0.25 units. My third-party bet-tracking app rounds it up. I would take Kyle Hart over 4.5 Strikeouts to -120 and over 5.5 strikeouts to +180. If the number moves beyond that, lower your total risk.