Nothing was gained; nothing was lost yesterday. We took the Twins on the ML, and they won 13-3. We took Hunter Greene under 7.5 K’s and under 6.5 K’s, both at a half unit, and he finished with eight strikeouts. He absolutely dominated and still only went over by one strikeout. I stand by that one.

Whatever. Back on the grind. We have three plays today at great prices. Let’s roll.

2024 Record: 99-104 (-8.33 U)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Kyle Gibson (3.99 ERA) vs. Emilio Pagan (4.22 ERA)

I’m impressed with how the Reds are swinging the bat right now. We haven’t had an explosive game of offense in Great American Ballpark in this series yet, and it’s a beautiful day for runs in Cincinnati. I like the Red’s bullpen, but the Cardinal’s bats have yet to show up, and they may be due to do so. It’s challenging to handicap a bullpen game, but I am confident the Reds put up runs here.

Kyle Gibson’s 3.99 ERA this year is due to inflate. His xFIP and FIP are over four; his 4.85 xERA and 4.28 SIERA aren’t great. It’s mainly because he has a below-average strikeout, walk, and Hard-Hit rate. While his ground-ball rate is above average at 46%, it’s the lowest mark he’s had in his entire career.

The Reds’ current roster has solid numbers against Gibson. Through 84 PA, they are hitting .325 with a .333 xwOBA and a .443 xSLG. I hope Ty France plays; he’s 5-8 against Gibson in his career. He hit a home run yesterday, so no reason to sit him. I hope Jake Fraley is in the lineup as well. He’s 5-9 with two home runs against Gibson.

He threw a six-inning, one-run performance against the Reds last time he faced them in Cincinnati. The books and I are aligned on him not repeating that performance, as they are hanging a 3.5 earned run line or a 2.5 line juiced towards the over for Gibson, even though he’s only been over that in six of his last 20 starts.

The Red’s offense is solid against right-handed pitching at home, rocking the 12th-highest OPS among 30 teams. Over the last two weeks, they have the 12th highest wRC+ against righties in any ballpark. They also had the third highest hard hit rate in that span. I’ve watched every inning of the past two games; they are seeing the ball well.

They crushed Sonny Gray and gave Erick Fedde fits, but he got out of trouble with runners on base. I don’t expect the same for Gibson today.

The Cardinals bullpen is solid, but I’m projecting at least three runs from Gibson. If the Reds get stalled, we tip our cap, but I will run it against a Cardinals bullpen outside the top ten in most metrics. Most runs come early, but I’m not counting out a late push to get us there. I want a plus price here, but I would be fine taking it to -115.

The Pick: Reds Team Total Over 4.5 (+100) Risk 1 Unit

Oakland A’s vs New York Mets @ 7:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Joey Estes (4.70 ERA) vs. David Peterson (3.34 ERA)

We have a longshot underdog that I love today. I haven’t loved an underdog like this in a while, and it’s going to take a particular set of stones to roll with it today.

The Mets got crushed yesterday 9-4, and most baseball minds would revert to the “bounce-back” angle on the Mets today. I could see that, but a system in this spot says that angle is not profitable.

It’s called the “Road Dog Interleague After a Win” System. Since 2016, when the road interleague team won the first game and is playing the same team again as an underdog, that team is 62-47 (56.88%) (36.33 ROI%). That says to play on the Oakland A’s.

It also says to play on the Nationals, but I decided to stay away from that one as it’s a two-game set, and it’s the Orioles, who I’m not interested in fading.

I’ll fade the Mets. This offense isn’t good right now. Over the last two weeks against right-handed pitching, they have an 82 wRC+, the third worst in the league. In that span, they also have the lowest OPS in the league at .623. Over the previous week, they have an 87 wRC+ against righties, the fifth worst.

On the other side, the A’s have destroyed left-handed pitching all season long. Over the last two weeks, this A’s offense has a 150 wRC+ against lefties, the third-best in the league. They’ve only recorded 12 PA against lefties this past week, rocking a 179 wRC+. By wRC+, this is a top-ten offense this year against lefties, sitting at 111. That’s better than the Mets’ 107 wRC+ against righties over the entire year.

Who’s better, Joey Estes or David Peterson? Joey Estes has a 4.70 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. David Peterson has managed to post a 3.34 ERA, even though his WHIP is 1.42. Joey Estes also has a 4.35 xERA and 4.94 SIERA. Peterson has a 5.42 xERA and a 4.69 SIERA. There isn’t much of a difference between these two, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Estes have the better rest of the season.

The bullpens are a crapshoot; both are pretty solid. The A’s have the fifth-best bullpen ERA this year, while the Mets sit at 16th. Those numbers tell you the A’s are better, but the Mets bullp[en is perfectly fine. If the price is better through the entire game and I don’t see an edge in the bullpens, I’m going full game to try and cut out the variance of a five-inning sample.

The A’s have a solid system backing them and the better offense in this spot. Peterson is due for a ton of regression, and the A’s have crushed lefties all season. This price is ridiculous; I would take the A’s down to +140.

The Pick: Oakland A’s ML (+160) Risk 1 Unit

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels @ 9:38 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Jose Berrios (3.97 ERA) vs. Tyler Anderson (2.99 ERA)

This is my favorite “avoid the sweep” play today. Teams facing a sweep in a three-game series are now 136-108, netting bettors 38.83 units. There are plenty on the board today if you want to play them all: Royals, Rockies, Pirates, Rangers, Cardinals, Cubs, Rays, and the Angels. I do lean towards the Cubs, Rangers, and Rockies, but the Angels is a play for me.

I’ve spoken about how Tyler Anderson is not a pitcher I planned on backing moving forward, but I’m okay with it when I look at Berrios’ numbers.

Tyler Anderson’s 2.99 ERA is due to regress, with a 4.20 xERA and 4.70 SIERA. Berrios is just as bad, sitting with a 3.97 ERA but a 5.14 xERA and 4.50 SIERA.

The pitching matchup is essentially a crapshoot, but I have reason to believe that Anderson can outduel Berrios today.

Anderson has performed worse at home this year, but that’s because his ERA is under two on the road. Whenever Berrios leaves Canada, he’s gotten destroyed, rocking a 5.29 ERA this year on the road.

The Angels have a 93 wRC+ over the last two weeks against right-handed pitching, ranking 21st in that span. That’s not very good, but it’s better than the Blue Jays, who have a 79 wRC+ against lefties over the last two weeks. The Angels also had the second-highest hard-hit rate during that span, while the Blue Jays were 11th.

Both teams in these respective splits have an 89 wRC+ overall. However, against righties at home, the Angels have a 97 wRC+ this year compared to the Jays against lefties on the road at 93.

I like Anderson a bit better in this game and the Angels offense a bit better in this game. Then we go to the bullpens, and neither team is good, but it’s more expensive to go to the Angel’s first five and then the entire game. I don’t see an edge for the Jays in the later innings.

We should see the best of the Angels bullpen no matter the score. They have yet to use them all series due to getting beat easily twice, and they have an off-day on Thursday. Hunter Strickland (3.40 ERA), Ben Joyce (2.70 ERA), Jose Quijada (2.57 ERA), and Hans Crouse (3.32 ERA) are all solid arms and can shut down this mediocre Blue Jays offense.

I price the Angels at -125 favorites in this game, and that’s without factoring in the profitable system. I know the Angels stink, but so do the Blue Jays. I like the team at home with their ace on the mound to avoid the sweep.

The Pick: Angels ML (-110) Risk 1.1 Units

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500