Four wins in a row!

Another easy one. We took the under 8 in the Giants and Angels game, and it was never a sweat. It got weird early, as the Angels put up one run, and then another on a Matt Chapman error. Those were the only runs scored in the game as the Angels came out victorious with a 2-0 win, cashing us out with ease.

Today, we have a player prop showing a lot of value. Let’s see if Kodai Senga can get us our fifth straight win.

2025 Record: 19-11 (+8.00 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets @ 4:05 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Giants: Matthew Liberatore (3.93 ERA, 0.98 WHIP in 18.1 Innings)

Mets: Kodai Senga (1.06 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 17 Innings)

Kodai Senga is an ace. Calling him a good pitcher would be a disservice to him. As long as he’s healthy, Senga has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. This might not be news to you if you’re a Mets fan, as it’s something I’ve started to come around on.

He’s made 33 starts in his career, tallying 188.2 innings. He’s only allowed 140 hits and struck out 227 batters. His only real issue is the number of walks he will enable, as his pitches move significantly, making it difficult to throw them for strikes consistently. The reason he may not be labeled as an “ace” is because of the lack of workload. However, in terms of talent, there aren’t many better pitchers than Kodai Senga.

The only pitch in Senga’s arsenal that isn’t an elite offering is his four-seam fastball, but it is so effective at setting up his breaking and offspeed pitches. He’s reduced the usage of that pitch to just 30%, and now everything is working in his favor.

Few pitchers have been as good in their home ballpark as Kodai Senga. He’s faced 418 total batters at Citi Field, and he’s only allowed 66 hits. That’s a .181 batting average against with a 2.35 ERA and a 3.17 FIP.

In his first season back in 2023, he recorded fewer than 4.5 hits in 17 of his 29 starts (59%). If we look at all 33 of his starts, he’s under 4.5 hits in 20 of them (61%). He’s made 18 home starts in his career, going under 4.5 hits in 12 of them (66.7%).

In his one home start this season, he allowed five hits to the Marlins. However, that was his second time facing them in as many starts, as his first start resulted in three hits over five innings. He looked incredible against a great offense in the A’s in his last start, but now he gets a “tough” matchup.

I put that word in quotations because the full-season numbers would suggest it is, but I’m not buying it. The Cardinals have the third-best batting average, ninth-best OPS, and 11th-best wRC+ against righties. However, it’s supported by the fourth-highest batting average on balls in play and the sixth-worst Hard-Hit rate. I don’t believe their offensive attack will last much longer.

Senga has also faced these Cardinals bats before, and it hasn’t gone well for St Louis. He threw against them in 2023 in St Louis and only allowed two hits over seven innings. The Cardinals’ lineup looks a bit different now, but Senga still has 28 PA against their current roster. They are only hitting .160 with a .294 xwOBA with a .375 xSLG.

Per Baseball Savant Park Factors, Citi Field is a great spot to look at a pitcher’s under-hits line. This season, it ranks as the second hardest park for opposing hitters to rack up hits, only trailing T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Last season, it was the same story. T-Mobile is a graveyard for bats, and Citi Field has been very close to replicating that tough-hitters environment.

Today at Citi Field, the wind is blowing out. I’m not too worried about it, considering the Cardinals aren’t hitting the ball hard, and if a batter leaves the park, it’s still only one hit allowed. If he allows a big home run, his leash is likely going to be shorter anyway. I still have a hard time believing the Cardinals get to five hits or more today.

I think this line is too high because the Cardinals’ bats have been fantastic to start the season, and they just sprayed seven hits against David Peterson yesterday. I project Senga to finish with four hits, which creates a true line for 4.5 hits closer to -160.

The only reason I’m not laying the juice is that the Mets’ bullpen isn’t in a good spot, so they may have Senga go longer than usual, which could open us up for more opportunities for him to allow hits. I would take this to -140, and anything after that, limit your risk.

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