Yesterday’s pick hurt. It stunk to watch the Pirates continually fail to get runners in from scoring position. It even came down to the last out, as a base hit would have won us the bet.

The more significant reason it hurt was a bad read on my part. This was the square side, and I misread the fade on Lance Lynn. I overlooked solid numbers against the Pirates’ current roster because of my greed to tail Paul Skenes. With a long rest after the All-Star break, we would get a rested Lance Lynn, who can be effective. That was a bad pick, and that’s on me.

Today, I’m going to right those wrongs with two picks. We are up about four units in July, so the month has been good for us thus far.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500

2024 Record: 87-89 (-7.07 U)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Ryne Nelson (4.78 ERA) vs. Michael Wacha (3.55 ERA)

I am trusting my gut here. When I looked through the games last night, my brain immediately said to bet the over. I let it breathe in the morning, researched more, and came away with the same conclusion. I wouldn’t say I like either matchup for the starters, and both bullpens are vulnerable. The Royals offense is so good at home, and after watching the Diamondbacks swing the bat well yesterday, we see double-digit runs.

We’ve spoken about Nelson at length. He’s a pitcher that I’m still hesitant to buy in on. If he can get whiffs at a high rate, he’s effective. That sounds like a typical sentence, but he’s feast or famine in that aspect. If he racks up strikeouts, he’ll pitch well, but if he doesn’t, he gets hit regularly.

His 3.5 strikeout line is juiced towards the under. That’s odd after three straight starts with five or more strikeouts, including nine against the Cubs in his last start. If he goes over but only gets four strikeouts, history has not been kind to him. In 12 starts where he struck out four batters or less, he’s pitched to a 6.54 ERA through 55 innings.

The Royals have the lowest strikeout rate against righties over the past 30 days.

Post All-Star break, they have the second lowest strikeout rate against righties at 18.4%. Nelson won’t be able to strike out a hot offense with a 134 wRC+ against righties since the All-Star Break and the highest OPS as a team against righties at home this entire season.

The Royals’ current roster recorded 20 AB against him in a start last season. He allowed 11 hits and four runs in five innings. I’m putting little stock into last year’s results, but it’s worth mentioning this isn’t the first time they’ve seen him. I’m projecting four runs through six innings for Nelson, with the chance for more.

The Royals have seen Wacha plenty and had a ton of success. Through 108 PA against Arizona’s current roster, Wacha has allowed a .327 opponent batting average with a .343 xwOBA. That .343 xwOBA is the worst on the slate for any pitcher with at least 100 PA against a current roster.

The Diamondbacks have the ninth-best Team OPS against righties on the road this season. Against righties in general this year, they have a 103 wRC+, above league average, ranking 12th in the league. Since July began, they have a 124 wRC+, suitable for sixth best in the league. They’ve faced a lot of lefties after the break, so the sample against righties is too small to take anything from, but I trust the long-term results of this Diamondbacks offense. I see three runs through five innings for Wacha.

I did think about the first five, but we have two solid offenses that can hit mediocre bullpens. The Royals have the 19th-best bullpen ERA this year and the Royals rank 23rd. Since June began (larger sample for bullpens), Arizona ranks 22nd, and the Royals rank 12th. Two bullpens I’m not scared of when we have two solid offenses.

I can see both teams scoring five runs in this game. With temperatures projected to range from 80-85 degrees, it’s a perfect day for baseball at Kauffman Stadium. After just eight runs scored yesterday, I expect both teams to light up the scoreboards. Take this to 9 (-120).

The Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Royals Over 9 (-105) Risk 1.05 Units

Player Prop

(PHI) Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110) Risk 0.5 Units

I wouldn’t say I’m in love with the matchup, but I love the price of it. I think it should be -110 both ways, so at a plus price, it’s worth the afternoon sweat.

We get a plus number because the Twins are striking out at the second-lowest rate in the majors against righties over the last 30 days. However, they still strike out at a 21.2% rate this year, and Nola has been on an excellent run of racking up strikeouts. The Twins also struck out seven times yesterday against Wheeler, so it’s not stretching to say he could get seven himself.

His outs line is MAJORLY juiced towards the over at -200 or more, implying we should get to six innings with the possibility of more. His earned run line is also juiced to -160 to the under after he allowed four earned runs to the Pirates. The lines tell me he’s shoving today.

Nola has found his fastball. Over his last three starts, his fastball velocity is up from 91.7 MPH to 92.9 MPH. He was leaving it in the middle against the Pirates, but he’s been fantastic when he’s on the corners. That’s why I’m not that concerned with the matchup at hand. Against the Dodgers, he struck out nine, punched out eight Braves, and struck out nine Marlins. He didn’t reach seven innings in any of them and still cleared this number. If he’s locating and maintaining velocity, we cruise. If he’s not, this is a loser.

As you can see from the screenshot from Baseball Savant above, Target Field is the sixth-best park for racking up strikeouts. His strikeout rate is slightly lower on the road this year, so I’m bringing this up. This is a relatively easy park to get strikeouts in.

One more thing: the Twins are streaky. Getting shutout last night doesn’t mean they bounce back; they may go on a lull here.

It’s worth a half unit at plus money. The matchup will mean little if he’s commanding the fastball with velocity. I’m betting on that here; let’s see Nola rack up seven strikeouts or more.