Ugh. The Brewers had a 3-0 lead after the first inning and never scored another run. They lost 4-3, and we lost on the Brewers ML.

I have two picks today, but the lines have moved a lot since I bet them. I have no control over the line movement; these two plays have seen plenty of it. Be careful today with these. Make sure to read the analysis and make your own judgment.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 46-56 (-10.50 U)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Mitch Keller vs. Colin Rea

The Brewers could not come through for us yesterday, but you know the story—we are always a day late. That’s not the real reason I’m playing it; the Brewers own Mitch Keller.

Mitch Keller does not like pitching on the road and does not like going up against Milwaukee. Through 82 PA against the Brewers’ current roster, they are rocking a .414 xwOBA while hitting .333 with a .568 xSLG. Those are the elite quality-of-contact numbers, and it’s a large enough sample to know this is a continuous issue for Keller.

Keller (4.65 xERA) already faced the Brewers this year, allowing four earned runs in five innings. That was a fine start for his standards against Milwaukee. Last season, he made two starts against the Brewers, allowing 12 runs in ten innings.

Keller has a 5.09 ERA and 4.22 FIP on the road this season compared to a 3.81 ERA and 3.98 FIP in home starts. This year’s sample needs to be more significant, but last year was far worse. His ERA at home was 2.90, and his ERA on the road was 5.35. Over his career, his ERA is a run worse on the road.

The Pirates bullpen is also decimated after back to back crazy games against the Cubs.

As you can see from the chart, no Pirates reliever is in a good rest spot. Fleming (4.09 xERA) and Holderman (2.18 xERA) are solid relievers, and we should see them. However, they aren’t in a good spot today. I assume they leave Keller out there for a while, which I don’t see going well.

Colin Rea lines up on the other side. I’m not a massive fan of his, but he does throw with his right hand. The Pirates haven’t been good against righties all year, ranking dead last in wRC+. They also rank dead last in the past two weeks against right-handed pitching. It’s a terrible offense against righties.

Colin Rea has a 5.77 xERA due to a far below-average strikeout rate, and his two main pitches have a batting average of over .300 against. I don’t plan on backing him over this season, but he does have a very easy matchup today. I’ve seen the Pirates struggle against worse.

Rea’s results against the Pirates last year were mixed. He allowed six runs in one start but then dominated for 6.2 innings while only allowing two runs.

The Brewers have a much better offense, home-field advantage without travel, and a better and more rested bullpen. Keller is the better pitcher than Rea, but with his history against Milwaukee, I’ll take the Brewers. This line has moved, so I would stick with 1.3 Units up to -145. Lower to a one-unit risk at -150 or higher.

The Pick: Brewers ML (-130) Risk 1.3 Units

Player Props

George Kirby Over 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130) Risk 1 Unit

This is the line that’s moved a substantial amount. I’ll explain the play; then we can talk about line movement. George Kirby is a pitcher for the Mariners and takes on the Royals today.

Kirby is the king of command. His 2.8% walk rate is absurd, and it helps him work through a lineup efficiently. He also tends to go longer when he’s at home. George Kirby has exceeded 17.5 outs in seven of his last eight games at home (18.9 outs/game average).

He faced the Royals once last year, and even though he allowed eight hits and four runs, he still went over this number. That was in Kansas City, which put him in a worse spot than this one.

The Royals are a fine offense, but they only rank 17th in wRC+ against righties this year and 12th over the past two weeks. They also have a low strikeout and walk rate; it’s an aggressive bunch. They should attack Kirby early, especially knowing he’ll be in the zone constantly.

Even Patrick Sandoval, who gave up 11 hits and four runs yesterday, still got through six innings. Tyler Anderson also went over this line, and Canning went 5.2 shutouts but was removed after 90 pitches. That’s just in the last three games. That’s why I like taking the outs; even if Kirby gets hit, he should keep the pitch count low.

The Mariners’ bullpen could also use a breather. Every single reliever has thrown at least once over the last two games except Trent Thornton. They aren’t in a terrible rest spot, but they should give Kirby some lee-way here. Kirby also gave up four runs in his last start, but is now -165 to go under 2.5 earned runs. If he stays under three earned runs, we should quickly get 18 outs.

I put a unit on this at -130. I think it hits so I would put a unit on it up to -170. Anything after that, the value is gone.

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