Yesterday, we took a step back. Sonny Gray finished with five strikeouts when we bet him under 4.5. We took the Giants through the first five innings, and Kyle Harrison allowed three runs. The bet was initially fading Josiah Gray, who was scratched in favor of Joan Adon.

Whatever. Long season. Back today with two picks.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 16-21 (-5.00 U)

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 6:35 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Wade Miley vs. Hunter Greene

Wade Miley makes his return from the IL today. He made his last rehab start, throwing three innings while allowing one run. He looked healthy, and while he won’t have a long leash, I think he’ll be effective today.

Wade Miley is a boring pitcher, but don’t confuse boring for bad. Last season, Miley was a big part of the Brewers’ rotation, posting an ERA below 3.40 in each of the last three seasons.

He’s also a former Red, and he excelled when he was there. Over 34 appearances in two seasons in 2020 and 2021, he put up a 3.55 ERA.

Miley has also dominated the Reds over 13 career starts (14 appearances) with a 2.86 ERA. He faced them last year, tossing six shutout innings while allowing four hits and striking out eight. If we had fully healthy Miley, this would be a full unit play.

The Reds were a below average team against lefties last season, and they followed that up this year until they crushed Aaron Ashby. They’ve performed well against Ashby in the past, but they usually aren’t a good offense against southpaws.

Hunter Greene lines up on the other side for his third start of the season. He’s nasty; his slider looks fantastic and he’s averaging 99 MPH with the fastball. From a stuff perspective, there is no comparison between Greene and Miley. I do think Greene is the better pitcher overall, but I don’t think he dominates today.

Adames and Yelich have solid numbers against Greene, and William Contreras is fantastic against fastball/slider pitchers. Greene also put up a 5.13 ERA in home games last year with a 6.80 ERA in night games. Greene faced the Brewers at home three times in 2022, allowing two runs or more in each start and never going beyond five innings.

The Brewers offense has been raking against right-handed pitching, ranking third in the league with a 125 wRC+ against righties. They’ve scored 17 runs in the first two games, and had no issue with Frankie Montas or Graham Ashcraft. I don’t think they struggle against Greene either.

The Reds bullpen can’t be trusted right now. Alexis Diaz looks less sharp, and the Reds bullpen has ranked in the bottom six of xFIP and FIP. The Brewers bullpen is 21st in FIP and third in xFIP, and it is projected to be the better bullpen.

The Brewers offense and bullpen has been better, and they have better historical data against Greene then the Reds do against Miley. Miley could return from injury and look rusty, so I’m limiting the risk. Take them to +110.

Projection: Brewers ML +100

The Pick: Brewers ML (+115) Risk 0.5 Units

Player Props

Erick Fedde Over 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105) Risk 1 Unit

You may see only a few White Sox bets for me all year. This team is terrible, but we aren’t betting on Fedde dominating; we are betting on him to soak up innings.

The Guardians rarely strike out and are super aggressive. They rank in the bottom five in terms of both strikeout rate and walk rate. They make a lot of contact early in counts and only see 3.71 pitches per PA, which ranks as the fourth lowest in Major League Baseball this year.

It’s clear that if Fedde can be moderately effective, he should be able to work into the sixth inning. Remember, he doesn’t have to throw a shutout to do that. He would have to throw more than five innings in this one to cash a plus-money prop.

Can he be effective is the question. To his credit, he has put up a 2.79 ERA so far, but he is allowing hard contact. That should work out fine against the Guardians, as they rank dead last in the hard hit rate.

The White Sox have gone two straight games with neither starter going over four innings. The day before that, Crochet was only able to give them five. Fedde went for five innings in his first start, and then 4.2 innings in his next start. He should be around this number anyway, but with the way the White Sox bullpen shakes out, I expect them to hand it over to him for longer than usual.

It’s also a 7.5 total. I know it’s Tanner Bibee on the mound that influences it, but it’s a bit low after a 7-5 game yesterday. It’s being influenced by the weather, as we have the wind blowing in, which should help both pitchers.

I have him projected at a 16.5 pitching-outs line. I think the market is a bit lower due to him not going over this line yet. It’s early, and Fedde has already wet his feet with two starts. If he pitches well, he should go over this. Even if he doesn’t pitch well, I still think the White Sox leave him in there.

I bet this is early in the morning, and the line is moving. As you can see above, this is still a +EV bet at -105 on BetMGM.

Projection: 16.5 Pitching Outs (+100)

All Data is From Outlier. Try a 7-Day Free Trial on Us!