Lame! We went 1-1 on game picks and went down 0.05 units. Our PrizePicks entry yesterday was hilarious. Shane McClanahan cashed his over on walks in the first inning, and Mike Brosseau was sent down to triple-A before the game started. Our entry was refunded, but it was very funny.
Today, I have two more picks and a PrizePicks entry. We are 11-3 in our last 14 picks; let’s stay hot.
2023 Straight Plays Record: 84-64 (+16.01 U)
PrizePicks Record: -2.4 U
I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet.
All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Carlos Carrasco vs. Bryce Elder
This total is very high for a game that includes the league leader in ERA. It’s high for a reason.
I’m willing to be hurt by Bryce Elder. I haven’t faded him at all this season, but this feels like a spot where the Mets can get to him. On the flip side, the Braves should destroy Carlos Carrasco.
Elder has escaped trouble one too many times. At the end of the day, he has a 4.16 xERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, and a 3.85 SIERRA. People are quick to call him a bad pitcher due to this, which is not my argument at all. My argument is he’s due for a three-run performance over 5-6 innings against a Mets team that has seen him before and is due for positive regression against right-handed pitching.
It’s a gut feeling thing for me, which is not what you want to read in a write-up. Bryce Elder leads major league baseball in ERA at 1.92. I cannot see a world in which that continues to this level. Again, I’m not saying he gets demolished today, but I see three or more runs in his future. This should be an easy over if we get that, combined with the lackluster performance from the Braves bullpen.
The reason is Carlos Carrasco. He has a horrible matchup against the Braves today. The Braves’ better split is against left-handed pitching, but Carrasco’s better split is against left-handed batters. Against righties, he’s rocking a .863 OPS, and the Braves lineup is not only familiar with him but is loaded with right-handed mashers.
Against the Braves’ current roster, Carrasco is rocking a .337 xwOBA and a .467 xSLG. All of the righties have a good matchup today, and even the lefties have had success against him. Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris are a combined 7-18 (.389 AVG) with two doubles and four home runs.
While both bullpens are relatively rested, they haven’t been great this year. The Mets rank 19th in ERA, while the Braves rank 12th. David Robertson threw 28 pitches on Saturday, so if he pitches, he won’t be completely fresh, and he’s been easily the best in the Mets bullpen. Colin McHugh, Jesse Chavez, and Raisiel Iglesias are all over 20 pitches in the past two days as well.
You might want to take the Braves, which is fine, but I do truly think this is a bad start for Bryce Elder. The ballpark pal model has Truist Park as the third-highest run-scoring environment of the day, and it’s showing that this total should be at 10.5.
The model actually likes Bryce Elder, the last time he had a total at 9.5 was against the Dodgers, and it liked the under, which ended up hitting. Something is triggering the model to dislike Elder today, and I share a similar feeling.
Expect runs on both sides, both early and often.
The Pick: Mets vs. Braves Over 9.5 (-115) 1.15 U to win 1 U
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies @ 8:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: John Brebbia vs. Dinelson Lamet
I tweeted when we took the under in his last start against the Diamondbacks. I wrote that Lamet could be why we lose on the under, and he tried his best to make it happen. He allowed five earned runs on seven hits against the Diamondbacks. Luckily, I spoke about the rested Rockies bullpen and how they could be effective once he exits. That’s exactly what happened, and we have a similar matchup today.
The weather in Colorado is beautiful; that’s why this total opened so high. As we can see, the total has crashed down for a reason. Lamet still isn’t projected to go long, and we have our system of playing the first game of a home stand and taking the under.
In these scenarios, when the Rockies travel back to Coors Field, the under is 4-1. The only loss is that game against the Pirates, where they put up 14 runs themselves. Kyle Freeland allowed seven runs against a Pirates team that was scorching against left-handers and then was followed by Ty Black, who is not currently in the bullpen anymore.
Daniel Bard, Pierce Johnson, Justin Lawrence, Brent Suter, and Jake Bird will all be available today. Those five have been stellar this season. If Dinelson Lamet does exactly what he did last time, I have faith in this. The Giants’ current lineup is also a bit weaker than it’s been. Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrsemski are day-to-day, and Thairo Estrada and Joc Pederson are on the IL.
On the flip side, the Giants’ bullpen games have been impressive. They start with John Brebbia and follow with Sean Manaea most time. The Rockies are the worst team in the majors against left-handed pitching, no matter who takes the mound. They fill in the gaps with plenty of solid arms and are available today.
These are two weak offenses going up against strong bullpens. The reason to bet the over is you think Lamet gives up eight runs, and you like the weather. Everything else points to the under. The model gives the weather a ton of credit and still has the game capped at 9.5.
This would be my favorite play of the year if the weather weren’t so beautiful. As we know, I love taking the over when the model has it above 25%. It does today, which makes this only a regular play. Normally, the model will show value on the over when the weather is this good. It is definitely not, which makes this playable as it goes along with the baseball argument.
The Pick: Giants vs. Rockies Under 12.5 (-115) 1.15 U to win 1 U
PrizePicks Entry 0.2 U to win 0.4 U
First Leg: Mitch Keller Under 7 Strikeouts
I keep getting screwed on these Tacos. Mitch Keller is discounted on his strikeouts against the Oakland A’s. He’s had at least 8 strikeouts in each of his past five starts. Now, he’s discounted to 5.5. It makes all the sense in the world that he goes over. He’s either at 6.5 at -140 towards the over or at 7.5 juiced towards the under. Give me the under at seven. PrizePicks knows something.
Second Leg: Bryce Elder Over 5.5 Hits
One thing about Bryce Elder, he will give up hits. He’s been amazing at turning those that are left-on base into outs by the double play, but the hits continue to be there. The model has him at six hits today, and he’s -140 to go over this on BetMGM. He’s allowing six hits or more.