Did we… win a bet? The West Coast games can be challenging for east coasters, as yesterday’s matchup between Seattle and Oakland ended at midnight. I stayed up and watched every second, and my heart felt the damage.

It looked grim early as the Mariners scored four runs in the first four innings. However, they didn’t get another runner in scoring position until the eighth inning. The Mariners had a 4-2 lead going into the bottom of the ninth with Andres Munoz. They wouldn’t let us have it easy, as he allowed a run on a passed ball. The game ended 4-3, and we narrowly hit our under.

I’m going to keep grinding to find us winners. I have one for you today. I’ll also be back with the daily TikTok lives. Feel free to follow here; we’ll start it up at 12:30 pm EST.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 57-67 (-12.75 U)

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Brady Singer vs. Nick Sandlin

I don’t think Brady Singer likes facing the Guardians. I initially wanted to go with Cleveland on the ML because I believe they’ll continue to score at will against the Royals today. However, I decided to go with the over because the Kansas City offense is too hot to fade.

Brady Singer is having an interesting year. His ERA is 2.63, and his xERA is 4.35. His FIP/xFIP/SIERA are all in the mid-threes. So what is he? Projection systems have him finishing with an ERA in the low fours when this season ends. He’ll outperform that with his high ground-ball rate, but even as an optimist, I don’t think his 2.63 ERA lasts long.

It should go up today against a Cleveland team that’s hit him well. Through 138 PA, the Guardians’ current roster has put up a .358 AVG, a .386 xwOBA, and a .496 xSLG with a strikeout rate of 13.8%. For a sample that big, these numbers are very concerning for Singer.

Seven hitters in the Guardians lineup are hitting over .315 against Singer. The only hitter in the Guardians lineup today who has struggled against Singer is Josh Naylor, hitting .143. However, his xBA is .268, and his xwOBA against is .320, so that tells me he’s hitting the ball hard off Singer but hasn’t had much luck.

The Guardians are the number three ranked offense against righties over the past two weeks. While Singer has only allowed more than two runs in a start just three times this year, his earned run line is juiced towards the over, but his outs line implies he’s only going five innings.

Conversely, the Royals hot bats meet a Cleveland bullpen game. I don’t know what the Guardians’ plans are. Nick Sandlin will go one inning, and then it may be Logan Allen or Xzavion Curry piggybacking. They may go with a different bullpen arm every inning. Regardless, I don’t see them stopping this Royals offense.

The Royals are the number six offense against righties and number two offense against lefties in the past two weeks. They are scorching hot and hitting both righties and lefties. The Guardians have some great relief pitchers, but with an offense this hot, all it takes is one of them to have a bad day and runs will come fast.

While yesterday’s game should inspire bettors to continue betting on these offenses, I think people will overlook this one because both “starters” have an ERA below three. Sandlin is just an opener, and I don’t expect Singer’s ERA to look the same after this one. Take this to 9 (-105)

The Pick: Royals vs Guardians Over 8.5 (-120) Risk 0.6 U to win 0.5 U

Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Erick Fedde vs. Jameson Taillon

These two offenses could be better, and Fedde’s numbers against the Cubs are solid. Taillon isn’t my favorite pitcher, but he should be able to calm these White Sox bats. With a high total, we have more margin for error, and this one is too high.

If Erick Fedde can limit damage, we should cruise here. He’s racked up 38 PA against this current Cubs roster, and it’s been fantastic. He has the second-lowest xwOBA against any pitcher today at .253. The Cubs only hit .222 against him with a .227 xBA while striking out at a 39.5% rate.

Patrick Wisdom, Ian Happ, David Bote, and Mike Tauchman are a combined 2-16 with eight strikeouts. Dansby Swanson is the only player with success, going 6-20. He has no extra-base hits and has struck out seven times, so it’s not much.

This season, the Cubs rank in the bottom ten by wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Over the last month, they rank 17th in wRC+. Over the previous two weeks, they ranked 12th, but it’s a 99 wRC+, a ranking helped by other offenses slowing down.

This Cubs offense is average against righties. I’ll give them more credit than their full-season stats, but I still don’t see them putting up a lot of runs today. Fedde is a tough matchup for an average offense.

Erick Fedde’s xERA is just 3.43, which puts him in the upper third of pitchers in the league. He doesn’t do anything at a below-average rate. His groundball rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rate are all above the league average. He’ll be a player teams call about at the deadline, and I expect him to help that case today. We would be in a great spot if Fedde gave us a quality start (6 IP, 3 ER).

Taillon is due for some negative regression, but I don’t expect it to kick in today. He’s keeping the ball on the ground at one of the highest rates of his career, and while he’s not striking out anyone, the contact against him is soft.

The White Sox offense scored six runs yesterday, even though the Cubs only allowed two earned runs. This horrific offense ranks 29th in wRC+ over the last two weeks, last since May 1st, and last this season. With Luis Robert back, it’s understandable they match up better against lefties, but righties should perform well.

Taillon has been fantastic at home, allowing just five earned runs in 21.1 innings to give him a 2.11 ERA. He’s failed to exceed 2.5 earned runs in nine of his last ten games at home (1.1 earned runs per game).

He’s been especially tough on right-handed bats (.559 OPS), and the White Sox are filled with them. Nicky Lopez (74 wRC+), Gavin Sheets (114 wRC+), Oscar Colas (-33 wRC+), and Dominic Fletcher (42 wRC+) are the lefties we should see today.

Andrew Benintendi is nursing an Achilles injury that’s kept him out, and they just lost Tommy Pham to injury. Luis Robert makes this offense better, but losing those two bats doesn’t help.

If we can get a quality start from Taillon (6 IP, 3 ER), we should continue to be in a good spot. He has the upside for a better start, but we’ll give Luis Robert a home run today.

It’s scary to back these bullpens, but still, I’m not too fond of these offenses. I only go first five when I’m in love with the starters, and while I expect these guys to pitch well, I want to soak in all the bad ABs. The same thing happened in the last two unders we hit; the score was high early, and then the offenses died down.

The Cubs bullpen is ready to go, and the White Sox still have fine arms behind Fedde. Kopech and Jordan Leisure should throw in this game. Both of them are fully capable of putting up zeros. The White Sox also have an off-day tomorrow, and you know they want the split here against the cross-town rival. I’m being serious; if they use their best arms, they should be fine.

9 is too high. I would take this down to 8.5 (+100)

The Pick: White Sox vs. Cubs Under 9 (-110) Risk 0.55 Units to win 0.5 U