MLB Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Tigers vs. Orioles, Angels vs. Rangers for September 21, 2022
Another day, another sweep.
We are very close to our 40-unit goal, and I have two more picks to get us over that hump. Check out the podcast for my player props of the day.
2022 MLB Regular Season Record: 210-172 (55%), +39.44 Units
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: 7:05 pm EST
Matt Manning (RHP, Tigers) [2-2, 3.28 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 57.2 IP, 44 K, 14 BB]
Jordan Lyles (RHP, Orioles) [10-11, 4.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 161 IP, 129 K, 50 BB]
We head to Baltimore for the third and final game of a three-game set. The Orioles seem to have lost a bit of their thunder, falling back in the wild-card standings after losing six of their last ten games, including two straight losses to these Tigers. They may be in for another rough game here as Jordan Lyles will take the bump.
September Jordan Lyles has been about as bad as it gets. He’s allowed 12 earned runs through two starts so far, and things are looking worse and worse as the season progresses. It would seem that facing this Tigers team at home could be a get-right spot for him, but the Tigers offense has been looking better lately, and they’ve been able to hit Lyles before.
Lyles has one start against the Tigers this season, allowing four earned runs in less than six innings. Through 65 PA against the Tigers’ current roster, he’s rocking a .302 opponent batting average with a .358 wOBA. The xwOBA and xBA are shorter at .327 and .260, but the xSLG is near .500, and the average exit velocity sits close to 92 MPH. That’s not a good recipe, especially when considering Lyles xERA being in the tenth percentile at 5.09.
The Tigers have not been a good offense this year, but they’ve been turning it up a notch on the road since September began. The Tigers rank 12th in baseball against right-handers on the road in wRC+ at 112, right between Cleveland and Atlanta. They have some hot bats at the moment, and I expect them to hit around Lyles today.
I’m a fan of Matt Manning, but I’m not sure how he’ll pitch today either. He’s been much worse pitching at night and on the road, and he’ll go up against an Orioles team that’s incredible due for an offensive outburst. The Orioles have struggled in the past few games, but overall in September, they are still a top 10 offense.
They rank 10th in wRC+ against right-handers in the month of September at 110. They have the highest walk rate against righties over the past two weeks, and Manning’s command seems to get away from him on the road.
Both bullpens have had to be used this series, and neither team has had an off-day since September 15th. I think we’ll see offense both early and late in the game. Wind is blowing out at Camden Yards today, and it ranks as the fourth best ballpark for hitters according to ballparkpal. The over is a very solid play today. I would play it to 8.5 if it gets there, but I love this number at 8.
The Pick: Tigers vs. Orioles Over 8 Runs (-120)
1.2 Units to Win 1 Unit
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers: 8:05 pm EST
Tucker Davidson (LHP, Angels) [2-6, 6.96 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 42.2 IP, 27 K, 30 BB]
Dane Dunning (RHP, Rangers) [3-8, 4.49 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 148.1 IP, 129 K, 61 BB]
We head to Globe Life Field in Texas for the second game of a three-game set. We have a young left-hander taking the mound in his first start against the Rangers and Dane Dunning, who’s been crushed by the Angels. We have two above-average offenses in the month of September and two tired, below-average bullpens. You know what that means.
Tucker Davidson was acquired in the Raisiel Iglesias deal over the deadline. We had the opportunity to sit down with him on the Just Baseball Show, and the guy certainly has a bright future in the league. He’s gotten better and better as he’s progressed, but this Texas offense has been crushing lefties at home.
Since September began, the Rangers have a 152 wRC+ against lefties at Globe Life Field. That’s 52% better than the league average. That’s frightening for our guy Tucker Davidson.
Behind Tucker will be one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball that has been used extensively over the past five days. They haven’t had an off-day since September 15th, and in September, the bullpen has the 23rd worst bullpen ERA at 4.70, the worst FIP at 5.99, and the fifth-worst xFIP at 4.53. The Rangers should have a very nice day on offense.
Here’s my thing, the Angels still have a great shot at winning today. Dane Dunning has been dreadful in the month of September, rocking a 7.53 ERA through three starts. This will now be his fifth appearance against the Angels, and the first four haven’t been great. Through 22 innings, he’s allowed 27 hits and 11 earned runs to give him a 4.50 ERA.
Through 67 PA, Dunning is rocking a .283 opponent batting average and a .376 wOBA. Those numbers are already below average, but you factor in a .368 xwOBA, a .273 xBA, and a .503 xSLG and his day to today looks grim.
The Angels have been a solid road team against right-handed pitching in September. They are rocking a 118 wRC+ which is good for ninth in that time period. Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Taylor Ward are a combined 10-31 (.323 AVG), with six extra-base hits against Dunning. Following Dunning will be a league-average bullpen in the month of September by ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
The Rangers have also been terrible as favorites, and home-field advantage hasn’t been much of a thing for them. They are 18-34 as the favorite this season and 30-42 at home. The Angels are 37-35 as an underdog and are 31-42 on the road.
I’m not exactly sure who wins this game, but what I do know is runs will be scored.