Written By: Tomas Romo
For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
The start to the MLB season has been more than just profitable, we have been on an absolute heater. 19-4 record and up over 17.0 units to start! The goal is to keep this streak going and to continue to keep giving out winners. Yesterday was a profitable day going 3-1 and gaining 2.9 units. Not as many plays on today’s board but I still love the card.
Let’s have a day, let’s rock.
2023 Straight Plays Record: 19-4 (+17.52 U)
2023 PrizePicks Entries: (0-0)
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JB200” if you’re betting MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly.
All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
Chicago Cubs vs. the Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Hayden Wesneski vs. Luis Cessa
The Cincinnati Reds have become one of my favorite teams to watch to begin the season. If you have been following my plays I have bet on the Reds twice already and they have done the job for me. However, this is not a matchup I like for Cincinnati.
Wesneski was stellar last season over his six starts for Chicago. He was 3-2 with a 2.18 ERA and allowed only one run in his two starts against the Reds in 2022. His slider is his best pitch and it compliments the rest of his pitches nicely.
The line opened at -130 favoring the Cubbies and it has trended in their direction sitting at -135 and some books have it closer to -140. This is a play I am not going to overthink, Cessa has a 4.00 career ERA against the Cubs. Their bats’ are starting to heat up and with a lineup that has some power hitting lefties in Ian Happ and Cody Bellinger, I expect them to have another good day against Cessa.
The Play: Cubs ML (-135) 1.35 U to win 1 U
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals @ 7:05 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Josh Fleming vs. Chad Kuhl
This is a simple matchup for me. Yesterday we had the Rays -1/2 F5 against the Nationals and it cashed. My main focus in this game is Chad Kuhl. He has been the ultimate fade for me over the past couple seasons. 6-11 with a 5.72 ERA last year with the Colorado Rockies and this is a matchup that favors the Rays.
Tampa Bay is 4-0 and they haven’t struggled offensively to start the season. I understand they have played the Detroit Tigers and the Nationals but this is a sneaky good team. The Rays are known for putting the ball in play and going against Kuhl favors them extremely.
This is also a system play, road favorites who made the playoffs last year against a team who didn’t went 272-167 last year, hitting at 62%. The line has moved heavily in their favor I snagged it at -175 and I have no problem laying the juice here.
The Play: Rays ML (-175) 1.75 U to win 1 U
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Roansy Contreras vs. Nick Pivetta
Coming into this game both teams are 2-2 and the Pirates stole game one of the series 7-6 last night. Both of these teams haven’t pitched well to start the season.
Pittsburgh has a team ERA of 4.76 while Boston’s is well over 7.00. The temperature is going to be in the 40’s come game time with winds blowing out at 10-15 miles per hour. This is a simple play and we are not going to overthink it.
The bottom line is the Red Sox can score some runs, they are batting .311 as a team scoring 33 runs over the first four games of the season. Pivetta last season finished with a 4.56 ERA. He only made it passed the fifth inning in 12 of his 33 starts last year as well. The Red Sox’s bullpen has been shaky to start the year and they haven’t had a reliable reliever to come in and get outs.
For Pittsburgh this is a team that struggled scoring runs until they arrived to Boston. The key here is their pitching. I mentioned the high team ERA but with Boston’s lineup hitting as good as they’ve been, I see this being a tough matchup for Roansy Contreras.
He faced this lineup last year in August going six innings and giving up four runs. The way I see it is Boston will continue to score runs against a weak Pirates team and since the Red Sox still haven’t figured out how to pitch, the Pirates should have another solid day at the plate.
The Play: Pirates vs. Red Sox Over 9 (-110) 1.1 U to win 1 U