For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season, I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day from 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
Yesterday was solid. We had two plays on the card and we cashed our two units with the Orioles money line but pushed with the total in the White Sox/Dodgers game. I’ll always take the winning day and as we head into the weekend I have two, two unit money line picks. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JBFANS” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 155-110-3 (+35.76 U)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Domingo German vs. Tanner Houck
The Boston Red Sox are sneaky sharp today. The public is all over the Yankees and the Red Sox opened as a -110 home favorite and are now steamed up to -120. New York is taking in over 65% of bets yet the line has moved in the other direction. This is a sharp reverse line move and the Red Sox match a system of ours as well.
Both teams had the day off yesterday and betting on the favorite after an off day is hitting 65% this year with a 7% ROI. I like Boston’s bats as well in this matchup, they are batting .259 as a team compared to New York at .232. The Red Sox are also seeing Domingo German for the second time in less than a week. He carved up Boston in his last start giving up one run over six innings. I like to back the team that lost the first time in spots like this.
German is also due for a regression start and he hasn’t been good on the road this year. He has a 4.20 ERA away from Yankee stadium this season and with Boston likely going to roll out a heavy left-handed lineup I like this matchup even more. The Red Sox have been better against righties this year batting .260 with a .428 SLG and .753 OPS.
I like the Red Sox on paper but with the reverse line move and the public being on the Yankees makes this a no-brainer pick for me. Many average bettors are going to see New York at plus money and pull the trigger. The books aren’t going to fool me today, c’mon Boston!
The Play: Boston Red Sox ML (-111) 2.22 U to win 2 U
Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Diego Padres @ 9:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Shane McClanahan vs. Yu Darvish
This is the interleague matchup of the night. Shane McClanahan is on the bump against Yu Darvish, the Padres just won two of three against Cleveland while the Rays split a four-game series against Oakland. The line has quietly been creeping in the Rays direction and Tampa matches a couple systems too.
Interleague road favorites have been a big system for us this year, hitting 66% with a 12% ROI. AL East teams vs. non-AL East teams have also been profitable, hitting 63% this season and the Rays are 46-18 as a favorite, 39-19 against righties, and 19-15 on the road. Getting a short price with Tampa on the road is too tough to pass up when you look at the numbers.
The Rays are no doubt the better team, they are batting .264 compared to the Padres at .229 and it doesn’t help that they have to face the AL Cy Young leader. San Diego is the best team in the MLB this year to the under because they haven’t been able to produce on offense and it’s not going to get easier against McClanahan.
I don’t like Yu Darvish in this spot either. The 36-year-old right hander isn’t the same pitcher he used to be, and he’s been inconsistent all year. Darvish has been better at home this season but struggles when he faces the lineup the second time around. The first time through the order teams are batting .156 against Darvish but those numbers jump to .269 the next time through.
I’m not sold on the Padres. This was a team that had World Series hopes to begin the year and they have one of the best teams on paper but sit two games below .500. San Diego is playing fraudulent baseball and I don’t think they have a chance against Tampa tonight. Give me the Rays I’m not overthinking it.
The Play: Tampa Bay Rays ML (-117) 2.34 U to win 2 U