Five Way-Too-Early Dark Horse Bets to Win the Cy Young

We’re officially a couple of weeks into the 2025 MLB season, and that means it’s time to check in on some of baseball’s hottest performers to open the year.

It’s fun to predict whether or not some of these hot starts are sustainable. Of course, some of these players could taper off as the season progresses. But in some cases, a number of these names may end up in award conversations come season’s end.

The sample sizes are getting bigger and bigger with each game, meaning it’s time to decide whether or not to buy or sell some slow starts from notable position players, or choose which of the hottest arms could continue to dominate their way through the regular season.

Today, our focus will be on the two Cy Young Awards, and we will look at a few dark horse candidates who could work themselves into the conversation.

Of course, each league has clear front runners to take home the hardware. Paul Skenes (+175) and Zach Wheeler (+450) lead the way in the National League, while a trio of Garrett Crochet (+300), Tarik Skubal (+350), and Logan Gilbert (+500) are battling it out at the top of the American League.

However, there are some names deeper down the list who could make some noise as the season progresses. Many of these names are off to hot starts, are in a situation of vital importance to their respective ball clubs, and have realistic potential to carry their early-season success deeper into the regular season.

Here are five dark horse bets, along with an honorable mention, whose hot starts could be sustainable enough to warrant Cy Young consideration in 2025.

Stats and rankings taken prior to play on April 10.

All odds are courtesy of our friends at BetMGM.

Honorable Mention – Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds: +600

Hunter Greene has put together a monstrous start to his 2025 season. After going into the season at +1000 to win the NL Cy Young, his odds are now nearly cut in half to win the award — and for good reason.

Not only do Greene’s numbers light up the box score (1.31 ERA, 1.83 FIP, 10.02 K/9, 0.9 fWAR), but he looks just as dominant when you watch him on the mound, overpowering hitters a deadly fastball-slider combination.

His odds are now the third shortest in the NL behind Skenes and Wheeler. Just two weeks into the MLB season, Greene has ascended from being a potential dark horse to win the award to legitimately working his way into the conversation with two of the best pitchers on the planet.

Greene’s stock is rising, and if he keeps pitching like this, it’s only going to keep getting higher.

Max Fried, New York Yankees: +1800

Max Fried has put together a very strong start to his Yankees career, and he’s seemingly improved with each outing thus far.

Across Fried’s three outings (17.1 IP), he’s allowed just three earned runs (1.56 ERA), he’s walking fewer than four percent of batters faced, and he’s striking out nearly 11 hitters per nine. His most impressive appearance came on Wednesday against the Tigers in which he fanned 11 batters without surrendering a walk across seven shutout innings.

Fried has ace-level upside, and we saw that at times throughout his Braves tenure. He finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting back in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, and more recently he was the NL Cy Young runner up to Sandy Alcantara back in 2022. Alcantara was the unanimous winner of the award that year, but Fried put up some impressive numbers of his own.

What’s more, now in his age-31 season, Fried has an immensely valuable role in the Yankees’ rotation, and that could hold a lot of value when it comes to earning Cy Young votes down the road.

With Gerrit Cole out for the year following his Tommy John surgery, New York needs a new ace of the staff to lead this team back to the postseason. Fried can be that arm. We’ve seen it in previous years in his time with Atlanta, and we’re seeing it throughout the first two weeks of the 2025 season with his new ball club.

If he continues to pitch at this level and leads the Yankees back to the postseason in dominating fashion, there’s no reason why Fried couldn’t be in the Cy Young conversation by the end of the year.

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs: +2000

Shota Imanaga has four starts under his belt to this point, and he has flashed some really exciting stuff thus far. He got touched up a bit on a windy afternoon at Wrigley Field on Wednesday against the Rangers, allowing five runs and two homers across five innings of work, but Imanaga was lights out prior to that start.

In his two previous outings against two potent offenses in the Padres and the D-Backs, Imanaga allowed just seven hits, struck out eight, and walked just two in 14.1 innings of work. It’s that version of Imanaga that can work himself into Cy Young consideration, we just have to see him maintain that level of performance over the course of a full season.

Similarly to Fried, Imanaga now assumes the role as the ace of the Cub’s staff with Justin Steele recently hitting the injured list. While Chicago is hoping it’s not a long-term absence for Steele, the injury opens the door for Imanaga to take over and lead this Cubs team to the postseason for the first time since 2020. Again, that could hold value when it comes to Cy Young voting as the season progresses.

We’ve seen just how devastating Imanaga can be on the mound when his fastball and splitter are playing off of each other. We saw it in his rookie year last season, and we’re seeing it again in the early goings of this year.

In order for Imanaga to work himself into the Cy Young conversation, he’ll need to work on limiting the long ball as the season progresses. But he can be virtually untouchable when he’s in a groove on the mound, and ironing out that consistency will be key in his Cy Young candidacy.

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers: +3000

Nathan Eovaldi put together perhaps the most impressive outing of the young season thus far back on April 1 against the Reds. In that outing, Eovaldi pitched a complete-game shutout allowing just four hits, zero walks, and striking out eight batters. He did so on 99 pitches, demonstrating some elite efficiency on the mound.

We know Eovaldi has that level of ability. We’ve seen it time and time again throughout the course of his lengthy career. Across his three starts this season (19.2 IP), Eovaldi has a 2.29 ERA, he leads the AL in fWAR (0.7), and he’s third in the AL in FIP (2.12).

Now, it’s obviously early to be looking at AL rankings with these types of stats, but it’s still noteworthy to point out his strong start in the context of other pitchers to this point.

What’s more, his importance to this Rangers pitching staff cannot be overstated. Assuming Jacob deGrom’s workload will be somewhat managed this season, Eovaldi can be the arm to carry the Rangers through the regular season and lead Texas back to the mountaintop.

The two-time All-Star has one top-five Cy Young finish under his belt with the Red Sox back in 2021, and he was a valuable member of the Rangers’ rotation en route to the franchise’s first World Series title back in 2023.

Whether or not Eovaldi can accumulate enough of a workload at this point in his career to warrant Cy Young consideration remains yet to be seen. However, his combination of ability and experience on an exciting Rangers team should help his overall argument.

After opening the year at +8000, he now finds his odds at +3000 to win the AL Cy Young Award.

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies: +3000

Jesús Luzardo has his work cut out for him to pass up teammates such as Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez in odds, but he certainly has the talent to do so if he can put together a complete season.

Injuries have been Luzardo’s shortcoming throughout his career. In his six big league seasons prior to this year, he’s surpassed 101 innings just once, and that came back in 2023 (178.2 IP). His second-most innings pitched came back in 2022 at 100.1 innings, and he pitched just 66.2 innings last year with the Marlins before being shut down with a lumbar stress reaction.

However, when he’s on the mound, the strikeout stuff is undeniable. Through his first two starts this season (12 IP), Luzardo has struck out a whopping 19 batters, yielding a monstrous 41.3% strikeout rate and a K/9 of 14.25. Of course it’s a small sample size, but we’ve seen that level of wipeout material in spurts throughout his career to this point.

His fastball velocity is up 1.6 mph from 2024, and his secondary offerings have looked very sharp as well. The 27-year-old southpaw still has loads of potential, and perhaps going from the Marlins’ clubhouse to the Phillies’ clubhouse can help him unlock that potential. That certainly looks to be the case in the early goings of the 2025 season.

Luzardo figures to be a key piece of a Phillies team that is once again going to be amongst the best in the National League in 2025. If he continues to post some gaudy strikeout numbers along the way, there’s certainly a world in which he works himself into the NL Cy Young conversation.

Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals: +3500

Kris Bubic has been sensational to open his 2025 campaign, and as a result he’s seen his Cy Young odds go from being off the board to open the season to currently sitting at +3500. That speaks volumes to just how impressive he’s been in his first two turns through the rotation.

In 12.2 innings, Bubic has allowed just one run (0.71 ERA), and he has fanned a total of 16 batters, yielding a K/9 of 11.37 and a strikeout rate just shy of 33%. Again, it is early, and the sample size is small, but Bubic leads the AL in both ERA and FIP (1.43) to this point.

Bubic flashed some enticing potential last season as a reliever as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. In 30.1 innings (all as a reliever), he posted a 2.67 ERA to go along with even more impressive peripherals, including a 1.81 xERA, a 1.95 FIP, and a 2.04 xFIP.

Bubic does a little bit of everything on the mound. He generates plenty of whiffs and strikeouts, he is limiting hitters to an average exit velocity of just 84.8 mph, and he demonstrates solid command of his arsenal as well.

Bubic is probably the biggest long shot on this entire list, considering what he will need to do in order to pass not only some of the more recognizable names ahead of him in odds, but also his own teammate, Cole Ragans, who is currently fourth in Cy Young odds at +800.

But he’s been tremendous thus far, and the early-season peripherals suggest this level of production could be here to stay. If he continues to pitch this way, his odds to win the AL Cy Young Award will continue to drop as we get deeper into the season.