Ryan McMahon over 7 fantasy score
This is a matchup you can’t take for face value. On the surface you see a hitter in Ryan McMahon who has struggled early this season now hitting away from Coors in a lefty-lefty matchup where he is hitting just .226 with 21 Ks in those 53 at-bats. But Tommy Henry poses a much different challenge to McMahon, and in a good way.
For starters, they have faced off six times before, and McMahon is 4-for-6 in those matchups. The results deserve an asterisk because three of those hits include a bunt single and what should’ve been routine groundouts to 3rd and 2nd that were against the shift and booted by a fielder.
The one non-negotiable hit was a near-home run to the opposite field. The important takeaway from the BvP is that excluding the bunt the hits were 97, 100, and 101 off the bat with two of them to the opposite field.
McMahon is at his best when he is able to utilize bat control and spray the ball to any field. Henry is the perfect matchup for that because he will pump his 90 MPH fastball in the zone and only produces around an 8% whiff rate on his main secondary pitch to lefties, his slider.
Lefties need that pitch going away from McMahon to produce strikeouts, and that lack of it for Henry could be huge. I’ll lean on McMahon here who is starting to get hot, and prior to last night had a HR in four straight games.
Owen Miller over 1.5 Hits Runs and RBI
Hopping back in against my favorite fade Alek Manoah. Needless to say I do think the Brewers score runs off of him today and one of the surprising revelations at the top of that lineup has been Owen Miller. He was initially utilized as a platoon guy against LHP but partially out of necessity has become nearly an everyday guy now.
And he’s doing just fine, hitting .333 against RHP in 75 at-bats. Thankfully for him he gets to match up against Manoah who has truly been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. Manoah will try to work the sinker in to righties and you simply just can’t do that to Owen Miller.
His bat-to-ball skills on sinkers in on his hands have been impeccable, as he just pokes pitches to all parts of the field. I love this matchup at the plate, and the opportunity for runs and RBI should certainly be there as well. I assume he will be surrounded in some form by Christian Yelich and Rowdy Tellez, who I also think have great matchups.
I think the top of that Brewers lineup will be able to be very patient today and even draw some walks, creating a lot of foot traffic on the bases early and often. And that is just the game that I want to back Owen Miller in.