Yamamoto!! That was awesome. We took Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+130) and over 5.5 Strikeouts (+270). Both cased with ease, recording five strikeouts through the first two innings. We should have laddered even higher, as he finished with eight strikeouts.

Our total for the playoffs is now +9.01 Units in the green. Today, we are looking at another player prop for ALCS Game 4 between the Yankees and Guardians. I don’t love anything in Mets vs Dodgers, but I do want to back Gavin Williams.

All of these picks are on BetMGM. Use Promo Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a first bet offer up to $1500 in bonus bets if you lose your first wager.

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians @ 8:08 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Luis Gil (3.50 ERA) vs. Gavin Williams (4.86 ERA)

Stephen Vogt’s theme so far has been short leashes for his starters. He took Tanner Bibee out after 1.1 innings and Alex Cobb out in just 2.2. However, he did let Matthew Boyd go five innings. He’ll give his pitchers a longer leash if they perform well, and that’s what this bet is somewhat predicated on, but only partially. That’s why I like it at this price.

Cobb only recorded eight outs, but three were via the strikeout. Two of Bibee’s four outs that he recorded were by strikeout. Gavin Williams is mainly unknown in the betting market, but he has much more strikeout upside than Cobb; his numbers rival Bibee’s. He should record four strikeouts or more if he can be halfway decent today.

Looking at this year’s results, you may think Gavin Williams is a nobody. He has a 3-10 record with a 4.86 ERA; this is his first postseason start. Why are we trusting him? Price and upside have much to do with it, but Gavin Williams is the Guardians’ top pitching prospect.

He’s built like a workhorse: 6’6, 250 pounds. He averaged 96.6 MPH on his fastball this year, and I expect a tick above that with adrenaline and a fresh arm. He should be sitting 97-99 MPH with the heater today, which has a 22% whiff rate this year, higher than Bibee’s fastball.

Both his curveball and cutter have a whiff rate over 30%, and both kept hitters to a batting average of .205 or lower. His 4.14 xERA, 4.19 SIERA, and 3.67 FIP indicate his performance this year didn’t reflect his talent, and I agree. He’s rocking a 24% strikeout rate this year (56th percentile) with an above-average chase rate (53rd percentile).

He has upside, and there are cracks in the armor regarding the Yankees swinging and missing. The Yankees haven’t been striking out much against righty starters in the playoffs because they haven’t faced many. Wacha and Lugo both have strikeout rates lower than Gavin Williams. They hit Cobb early, but he still had three strikeouts while only recording eight outs, and Williams has a higher strikeout rate. Bibee had two strikeouts while only getting four outs, which is the level of strikeout stuff we could see today from Williams.

The Yankees hit right-handers well, but in the second half, they had a 22.2% strikeout rate against righties. From September, they had a 25% strikeout rate, the tenth highest in that span. They rank in the middle regarding whiff rate against Gavin Williams’ five-pitch mix.

We aren’t asking him to strike out five Yankees again; we only need four, and it’s a plus number. In his 16 starts this season, he’s been over this line 11 times, averaging 4.9 strikeouts. 2023 he was over this line in 12 of his 16 starts. Over his last ten starts, he’s been over this line in seven of them. These are 70% hit rate trends in both seasons, so as you can see, a short leash is priced into this.

Recording strikeouts and pitching well are not always connected. This season, Gavin Williams faced the Yankees, allowing three earned runs in four innings. He still finished with five strikeouts in that game. He struck out Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, Juan Soto, Anthony Volpe, and Austin Wells, five hitters he will see today.

He’ll have a short leash if he gets destroyed. But if he’s just okay, Vogt should leave him out there for at least three innings. They just played an extra-innings game yesterday where the entire bullpen was used. I have to imagine he wants some length out of Williams.

We are betting that Williams will not get destroyed. He might, but that’s priced into this line. If he can give us three innings, we should see four strikeouts. He hasn’t pitched in a while, so his arm will be fresh, and I expect his stuff to be nasty.

The Pick: Gavin Williams Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+100) Risk 1 Unit