Update On My 2025 MLB Futures

If you can believe it, there are only 50 games left in the MLB season.

Before the season began, I recommended 13 wagers totalling about 23 units. Last season, our futures crushed, netting us 16.65 units in profit. A unit is 1% of your bankroll. A standard bankroll is $10,000, which means the standard unit size would be $100. Using that math, a standard bettor would have been up $1,665 taking the 2024 futures recommendations.

Let’s see what 2025 has in store for us. All current projections are courtesy of the Bat X on Fangraphs.

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Cincinnati Reds 80+ Wins (+130) – Risk 3 Units

Current Win Total Projection: 82

Earlier in the offseason, I hinted at a potential five-unit max play on a win total. I had the Reds in mind, but with a caveat. I needed them to add a bit more to the roster, and I wanted specific moves to take place to upgrade it to a five-unit max. They didn’t do that, but I still loved the team enough to put a hefty three-unit wager on them to win at least 80 games. Their win total at the time was a cheap 78.5, but I wanted the plus money at 80+ wins.

Based on the projection, we currently have a two-win cushion. Things are looking up for them, as Hunter Greene is set to rejoin the rotation sometime in the next week or so. He just finished his third rehab outing, throwing three innings without allowing a run and striking out seven. That’s a big boost for this rotation.

They didn’t have a great deadline, but they managed to add. Ke’Bryan Hayes will help sure up the defense, and Littell is a valuable piece to the rotation. Right now, they are 58-54, so for us to lose this bet, they would have to go 21-29 the rest of the way. It’s possible, but I think the more likely scenario is the Reds cashing this bet for us.

Prediction: WIN (+3.60 Units)

Arizona Diamondbacks Over 85.5 Wins (-105) – Risk 3.15 Units

Current Win Total Projection: 77 Wins

Swing and a miss. In 2023, we took Arizona’s over on wins, and not only did it cash with ease, but they made it to the World Series. Last year, it was one of our most significant win totals, and they came through once again. We pushed our luck on a third straight over, only to fall short of expectations.

A big reason why I like the Diamondbacks this year is the improvements on the mound. They brought in Corbin Burnes, and the back end of the bullpen was solidified with AJ Puk and Justin Martinez. Unfortunately, all of them got hurt, and the Snakes have been looking for answers ever since. They weren’t competitive enough to buy at the deadline, so instead, they sold off pieces.

The Diamondbacks’ record is 53-59. They would have to go 33-17 the rest of the way to finish with 86 wins. Is there a chance? Sure, but none of us sees that happening, so we’re marking this down as a fat loss.

Prediction: LOSS (-3.15 Units)

Chicago White Sox Over 53.5 Wins (-110) Risk 2.75 Units

Current Win Total Projection: 63 wins

You all laughed at me. Coming off one of the worst seasons in MLB history, I recommended we back them the following year. Not only to improve, but to jump from 41 wins to 54 or more. On Saturday, they won their 42nd game of the season, with two months to go.

They’ve had some fine pitching performances this year, but since the All-Star break, it’s the offense that has taken shape. Since July 18, the offense ranks second in wRC+ at 130, only trailing the Brewers. The young players have come up and are hitting their stride; they are genuinely a fun watch right now.

The White Sox are 42-70. I’m not pretending they are a great team, but given their low win total, they should be able to get there. All they have to do is go 12-38 the rest of the way to get to 54 wins. I think it’s safe to call this one a win.

Prediction: WIN (+2.5 units)

Atlanta Braves NL East Division Winner (+140) – Risk 2.5 Units

Current Division Odds Projection: 0.0%

Is this the worst future I’ve ever given out? The Braves have fallen flat on their faces this year, sitting 15.5 games out of the division lead. FanGraphs gives them a 0.0% chance of winning the division this year. ZERO POINT ZERO.

Talk about a complete dud—worst bet of the season.

Prediction: LOSS (-2.5 Units)

New York Mets Under 92.5 Wins (-120) Risk 2.4 units

Current Win Total Projection: 89 Wins

This one didn’t look good early, as everything I said in the preseason about the Mets seemed way off. The starting pitching was much better than I thought, and the Mets were the best team in the league at one point.

However, it’s looking like I may have been on the right track with this one. On June 1, the Mets were 37-22, tied with the Cubs for the best record in the NL and the second-best record overall, only trailing the Tigers. Now, they sit at 63-49, which means they are 26-27 in that span.

The rotation is beginning to falter, and the offense is also on the decline. I liked their deadline, adding three legit bullpen arms and Cedric Mullins in center field. While they’ve been mediocre over these last two months, they are still one of the best teams in Major League Baseball. Based on their run differential, their xW/L is 60-52. I expect them to finish with 90-91 wins, just falling short of 92.5. A 90-win season will get them in the playoffs, and I expect them to make some noise. At the same time, I expect profit here on the win total.

Prediction: WIN (+2 units)

San Francisco Giants Over 79.5 Wins (-105) Risk 2.10 Units

Current Win Total Prediction: 82 wins

This one went the complete opposite way of the Mets. I looked like a genius early on, as the Giants were one of the best teams in the NL through the first 2.5 months. On June 15, the Giants were 41-31, and they traded for Rafael Devers. It looked as if we were going to waltz into an easy win.

Nope. The Giants are currently 56-56, which means they are 15-25 since the trade. The offense has come to a screeching halt, and the rotation hasn’t been nearly as strong as it was. It also doesn’t help that this team traded Camilo Doval and Tyler Rogers at the deadline. The bullpen will be okay without them, but that certainly doesn’t help.

While the projection says we have a two-game cushion, I have a bad feeling about this one. My eyes tell me this team stinks right now, but hopefully the offense can find some flow in the remaining months ahead. Sitting at 56-56, they have to go 24-26 the rest of the way to get us a win. I’ll project a win here, but I don’t feel good about it—time to sweat.

Projection: WIN (+2 units)

Boston Red Sox Over 86.5 Wins (-104) Risk 2.08 Units

Current Win Total Projection: 87 wins

Where do we even begin with this team? They didn’t start hot, then traded Rafael Devers. It looked like a loss, but with their recent surge, we are projected to win this bet.

The emergence of Rafaela and Anthony has made this lineup significantly scarier, and now that Bregman is healthy and back in the fold, the offense poses a problem for the opposing team. Garrett Crochet is a true ace on the mound, and Lucas Giolito’s rise back to stardom is terrific to see. Brayan Bello has also become a valuable starter, and I expect Walker Buehler to improve over the next two months.

Adding Steven Matz and Dustin May should help, but not by a lot. The deadline was extremely underwhelming, as the team had holes that they failed to address. Luckily, they didn’t trade Jarren Duran away, so the offense should keep humming. I am concerned about the pitching, as this bullpen has logged plenty of innings.

What does give me hope is their xW/L is 64-49, which means they’ve been underperforming their run differential this year. They have also been hot lately, winners of five straight, including eight of their last ten games. Right now, they are 62-51, which means they have to go 25-24 the rest of the way. I think that’s attainable, but this will be a massive sweat. I’ll call it a win here based on the projection, but by no means am I counting my chickens.

Projection: WIN (+2 units)

Seattle Mariners to Win the AL West (+300) Risk 1 Unit

Current Division Odds Projection: 41% (Implied odds: +144)

The Astros have a 2.5-game lead over the Mariners in the AL West right now, but it’s not just about overtaking them; it’s about avoiding a late surge from the Texas Rangers. Thankfully, the Mariners showed the Rangers who’s boss over the weekend, winning three out of the four games against them at home. Three of the four games were close, showcasing how narrow the talent gap is between those two. The Astros are starting to falter as the injury bug has bitten them harder than nearly any other team.

The Astros still have the best chance of winning the division at 48% (+108 implied odds), and the Rangers have a projected 10.5% chance (+850 implied odds). If we look at the win totals, the Astros are projected at 88 wins, the Mariners at 87, and the Rangers at 84. It will come down to the end here, and the Mariners did the most to help themselves out at the deadline.

I’ve been following the projections to a tee at this point, and I won’t change that now. I have a good feeling we win this one, but I’m counting it as a loss due to the projections. Go Mariners!

Projection: LOSS (-1 Unit)

Garrett Crochet, MLB Strikeout Leader (+1100) Risk 1 Unit

Current Odds: +105

In his first full season as a starter, he’s everything I could have hoped for. Durable and nasty, he’s a problem for the opposing offense. He has a 31% strikeout rate while tied for the league lead in innings. He’s posted a 2.23 ERA so far, just a smidge off of Tarik Skubal for the AL crown. This is how I envisioned him looking when I placed the bet and called for him to win the AL Cy Young.

The issue is his competition. Tarik Skubal is simply incredible, and Zack Wheeler has taken his game to another level this season. Crochet is currently in third place behind those two, but he is due to pitch on Wednesday, meaning he has the chance to retake the lead.

If we look at the current odds, it’s genuinely a three-horse race. Dylan Cease is in a distant fourth at +3500. Wheeler leads the pack at +100, Crochet is at +105, and Skubal is at +110. It’s anybody’s guess who wins it. Since he isn’t a clear favorite, I’m counting this as a loss, but a win here would be enormous, netting us 11 units.

Projection: LOSS (-1 Unit)

Bobby Witt Jr, MLB Hits Leader (+800) Risk 1 Unit

There are no odds up for this market anymore, so we’ll go off the leaderboard.

Bobby Witt Jr is having a fine season, but nowhere near where I thought he’d be at this point. He hit .332 last year, and this year, he’s hitting .285. I didn’t expect him to replicate his 2024 season, but I did think he could get close. He hasn’t, falling short of my expectations.

He’s swinging and missing a lot more than he did last year. His strikeout rate is near 20% when it was only 15% last year, and while he’s been a bit unlucky if we look at his batted ball profile, he’s still not near his 2024 numbers.

He’s 13 hits behind the leader, Bo Bichette. Sitting in sixth place, he has a lot of work to do, but he can pull back into this race. As of now, I’m calling this one a loss, but I’m not counting it out just yet.

Prediction: LOSS (-1 Unit)

MLB Futures Below One Unit

Boston Red Sox to win AL East (+440) Risk 0.5 Units

Dodgers Finish First, Diamondbacks Finish Second (+200) (Risk 0.5 Units)

Christian Encarnacion-Strand 30+ Home Runs (+390) (Risk 0.5 Units)

2025 World Series Future

San Diego Padres (+2000) Risk 0.5 Units

Overall Outlook

Based on the projections, our total projected profit is 1.95 units in the green. However, that’s factoring in losses for the Red Sox division, Mariners division, Crochet and Bobby Witt stat leaders, and all of the bets that are currently projected not to hit. Also, the World Series is wide open. We should end up profiting again, but you never know—time to sweat.