Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s Complicated Free Agency Market

Trying to predict a player’s market and landing spot is always a difficult task. You can quickly scan through a team’s needs, find a fit, match that fit to one of the free agents at that position but it’s more complicated than that. Money, contract length, and a player and/or team’s desires were much more layered and difficult to read.

You eventually can follow patterns to have a well educated guess on where a player may land and what contract they might earn. But for a player like Jazz Chisholm Jr., added layers and complications make it more difficult to predict.

Nobody’s going to argue about his talent. Even in his down 2026 season he was still a 3.5 fWAR player. He hit 19 home runs and stole 41 bases. A dynamic athlete who can do just about anything on the field should be a big ticket free agent, right? Well, off the field, there are some dynamics that certain teams will shy away from.

Jazz Is a Character, for Better or For Worse

Let me first start by saying that I am a Jazz fan. An entertaining goofball who happens to be a fantastic baseball player is entertaining, and something I would not want to remove from the game. I’m not here to cast shade or demand he behaves in a different way, but we cannot ignore the fact that he comes with a certain moxie and history that is not to everyone’s taste.

There’s been a well-documented history of issues Jazz has had with the media, coaching staffs, and fans. Going back and forth with people on social media is one thing, but having issues with your coaching staff is more serious. There have been reports that he also refused certain analytics help that the Yankees offered.

I remember watching a game this summer when the Yankees were playing the Tigers and saying, “wait, is Jazz eating lollipop in the field?” The answer was yes. Probably not the smartest move, especially during a time when he was slumping and batting under .200 and striking out 30% of the time.

Jazz is going to be Jazz. The question is not whether or not he will change, but if your favorite teams are going to be willing to put up with it.

I think you can go ahead and scratch several teams off his potential landing spot list. Many due the money, but some due to antics.

It’s safe to say that Jazz will not be returning to New York after the way this season went. If us fans have this much insight into how he is imagine how much more insight teams have. I’m sure certain owners, managers, and front offices will not even consider bringing in Jazz, regardless of price.

With that said, it could open up a different market. If enough of the regular players are not in on Jazz, maybe a smaller market team would be more willing to take on the baggage, for lack of a better word, if it comes at a discount. I’m sure we will learn more and more about what teams are willing to deal with as more reports come out this winter on who is interested in Jazz.

The Free Agent Market Is Weak

Glance through the list of batters who will be available this winter. Seiya Suzuki, Brandon Lowe, Ian Happ, Randy Arozarena, Taylor Ward, J.P. Crawford, Gleyber Torres, Luis Arraez, and so on. I think you get the idea. Sure there are several quality players on this list and throughout the market but very few bona fide impact bats.

How many of the players listed above would you give a four-year deal or longer to? Where would you power-rank Jazz on this list? Now, separate those answers from this question: How much would you be willing to pay Jazz and for how many years?

You could make the argument that Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a top-three player in this free agency class. It’s debatable, but reasonable. Yet, I don’t think Chisholm’s getting even a four-year deal. Three might even be a stretch. A structure similar to Bichette or other players that have utilized opt-outs to essentially make it a one-year deal with more protection might be the most likely scenario.

Although Jazz has played outfield in the past, it’s really not part of his repertoire anymore. He’s played third at times but is mostly a second baseman and I think teams will use that and leverage it for his contract. You see bigger deals going to third basemen or center fielders, with very few big money deals going to second basemen.

Jose Altuve, Marcus Semien, and Gleyber Torres (qualifying offer) were the only second basemen making over $20 million last season, unless you include Jorge Polanco, who is really a DH/1B at this point. Nico Hoerner was the most recent big-contract second baseman, signing an extension over the last six years at $141 million with a $23 million AAV.

Hoerner has posted similar fWAR numbers to Jazz, although they are very different players. If you wanted to use Hoerner’s contract as a comp, I think you are right to do so, but I doubt Jazz gets anywhere near that money. Even if he deserves it. While it might not be fair, I do think it is real.

Finding a Fit

The money is one thing, but the fit is another. The most likely scenario is that Jazz is signed to be a starting second baseman, so we will work under that assumption. Let’s go ahead and eliminate some teams that don’t make sense.

Eliminated (16 teams) – Brewers (Turang), D-backs (Marte), Cardinals (Wetherholt), Yankees (ex), Cubs (Hoerner), Guardians (Bazzana), Marlins (…), Astros (Altuve), Padres (Money/fit), Athletics (market), Mets (Semien), Rockies (Direction), Giants (Direction), Angels (Direction), White Sox (Meidroth/money), Royals (Market/Direction)

Unlikely (5 teams) – Rays (Market), Nationals (Market/Prospects), Rangers (Money), Orioles (Holliday) Twins (Market)

Maybe (5) – Tigers, Mariners, Blue Jays, Reds, Red Sox

It is an interesting idea after Gleyber Torres hits the open market. They are heavy on lefty bats and might have a greater need in right field, but adding some speed to this team would be welcomed. They freed up some money with recent departures and need a lineup boost.

Cole Young is a promising young second baseman for Seattle, but the Mariners could make things interesting. They have a need for a DH and could shift players around in order to make this a fit. They’re in need of a big offseason and I think Jazz would be a good addition, even if shortstop and bringing back Arozarena would be a great priority.

The Blue Jays have been spenders in recent years and adding Jazz to this lineup would move Ernie Clement back into a full-time utility role. Outfield’s a bigger need so I wonder if their focus will be there. Cincinnati really needs a lefty bat with some pop and they have a hole at second base due to Matt McLain’s struggles. As much as I like the fit I cannot imagine Terry Francona and Jazz Chisholm Jr. sharing a clubhouse.

There’s a non-zero chance Jazz wants to play the villain and simply signs with Boston. Hey, it’s not that bad of an idea. The Red Sox could use a lefty bat.

Greatest Possibility (4) – Phillies, Pirates, Braves, Dodgers

I’m sure that the Dodgers’ focus will be on other players first, but we can never rule them out when it comes to significant players in free agency. You might think I’m crazy for having Pittsburgh on this list, but the Pirates might be the team that makes it happen if the deal gets shortened enough.

We aren’t 100% sure what Jazz’s market is going to look like, and if the Pirates can get in on a shorter-term deal, they should do everything they can to take this risk. History tells us they won’t and I understand why this seems foolish. If there’s ever a time for the Pirates to land an impact player on a short-term deal at a relatively reasonable cost, it might be now. It makes baseball sense.

If this is the end of the road for Ozzie Albies in Atlanta, which I think it should be, how fun would adding Jazz to this lineup be? Atlanta could use a boost to their lineup. So could their division foes in Philadelphia.

Phillies are a wild-card here. We know that they’re not afraid to spend, but their aging roster and underperformance might lead to a situation where they’re more likely to sell off pieces compared to adding. However, a reckless “all-in” or “one last dance” situation wouldn’t shock me. Bryson Stott could be used as either a high-level bench player or a trade piece around the roster.

Final Thoughts

I’ve spoken with several people who I would consider them great baseball minds and they are just as puzzled about Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s market as I am. I really don’t think there’s a single scenario where I would be shocked. A one-year deal with a high AAV? Sure. A multi-year deal from a team willing to roll the dice? Why not. His talent is worth it.

With so many layers to the situation, it’s hard to say for sure. What I do know is that whoever lands Jazz is getting on a hell of a player. And a potential headache.